MercadoLibre, Inc.
MELI · US
MELI Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 1635.15 |
| Daily move | +0.20% |
| Overall score | 53/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Consolidation |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 50.03 / 60.66 (neutral) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -34.05 / -40.38 / +6.33 |
| Support (watch level) | 1473.42 (+9.89% below price) |
| Resistance (watch level) | 1902.08 (+16.32% above price) |
| 30-session range position | +34.35% (range 1495.00-1903.00) |
| Data confidence | Mixed - Medium technicals/valuation, Low on news & sentiment |
| Indicator | Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 1667.55 / 1623.47 / 1687.75 / 1728.29 | Mixed alignment; price below MA20 (-3.12%) and below MA60. Engine flags MA5<MA20 as a bearish cross (40/100, Hold) |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 50.03 / 60.66 | Neutral momentum; RSI14 sits exactly at the midline (50/100, Hold) |
| MACD | line -34.05 / signal -40.38 / hist +6.33 | Histogram positive with a bullish cross below the zero axis; engine reads strengthening momentum (65/100, Buy) |
| KDJ | K 76.94 / D 62.65 / J 105.51 | Extended; J above 100 signals short-term overheating risk |
| Bollinger Bands | upper 1902.08 / mid 1687.75 / lower 1473.42 | Mid-band zone at 38% of the band (50/100, Hold) |
| ATR14 | 77.89 (+4.59% of price) | Elevated daily volatility; meaningful for sizing watch-level buffers |
| OBV | -10,220,490.69 / 20-session slope -11.11% | Distribution pressure visible; volume flow trending negative |
| CCI20 | -0.39 | Inside a neutral band, no extreme reading |
Confirmed: MACD shows a constructive configuration (positive histogram, bullish cross), and RSI/CCI agree on a neutral-to-balanced momentum backdrop.
Conflicted: The bullish MACD signal sits against a mixed MA structure (price under MA20/MA60) and an overheated KDJ J-line (105.51). OBV distribution pressure (-11.11% slope) also conflicts with the MACD's improving tone, and volume is -39.86% versus the 20-session average - the "price up, volume down" pattern the engine flags as insufficient upward conviction (55/100).
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so none are folded in here.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 41.51 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 11.39 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 4.08 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.18 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | 2.31 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $789.75 / Base $1,086.07 / Bull $1,364.59 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -33.6% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $20.34B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $2.00B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $82.90B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $46.93B / Equity $7.28B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
The StockKit fair-value range and PEG proxy are internally computed scenario outputs derived from reported fundamentals, not analyst consensus targets. On those internal scenarios, the current price of 1635.15 sits above even the Bull case ($1,364.59), producing a Base fair-value gap of -33.6%. This reflects a premium multiple set (PE 41.51, PB 11.39) against a Base 5Y growth forecast of +18.00%, consistent with a PEG proxy of 2.31. Confidence here is Medium given the scenario-model basis; EV/EBITDA carries Low confidence and should be weighted accordingly.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Headline coverage | No current news items were available from the configured source |
| Confirmed catalysts | None available in the supplied dataset |
No confirmed headlines or scheduled catalysts were supplied, so this section carries low confidence on event risk. No earnings dates, ratings actions, or company events are inferred. Practically, this means near-term price action should be read primarily through the technical and volume picture in Sections 2-3 until coverage reconnects.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Social channels (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not marked connected, so no readings are drawn from them. Sentiment confidence is Low across the board.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Continued consolidation around mid-band (38% of band; price -3.12% vs MA20) | Price holds the 1473.42-1902.08 band with score steady near 53/100 and ATR14% near +4.59% | A sustained close outside either band edge, breaking the consolidation |
| Upside | Reclaim of MA20 (1687.75) with volume normalizing toward the 20-session average of 733,920 | MACD histogram stays positive and turns volume-confirmed (current volume -39.86% vs average reverses); move toward resistance watch level 1902.08 | OBV slope (-11.11%) deepens, or price fails at MA20 and rolls back below MA10 (1623.47) |
| Downside | Loss of momentum from overheated KDJ (J 105.51) plus persistent OBV distribution | Break below support watch level 1473.42 (-9.89%) and the lower 30-session bound of 1495.00 | Price stabilizes back above MA10/MA20 and KDJ resets without breaking lower |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution / weak volume conviction | OBV -10.2M with -11.11% 20-session slope; volume -39.86% vs average; "price up, volume down" (55/100) | Further OBV decline on down days | Track OBV slope and daily volume vs the 733,920 average |
| Short-term overheating | KDJ J at 105.51, K 76.94 above D 62.65 | KDJ failing to hold elevated reading | Watch for KDJ rollover alongside RSI6 (60.66) cooling |
| Valuation premium | PE 41.51, PB 11.39, EV/EBITDA 22.18; price above Bull scenario $1,364.59; Base gap -33.6% | Multiple compression if growth expectations soften | Re-check fundamentals against the Base +18.00% growth assumption |
| Trend overhead | Price below MA20 (1687.75) and MA60 (1728.29); MA5<MA20 bearish cross (40/100) | Failure to reclaim MA20 | Watch MA20 as the pivot between recovery and continued drift |
| Elevated volatility | ATR14 77.89 (+4.59% of price) | Range expansion in either direction | Size watch-level buffers around ATR; avoid over-reading single sessions |
| Information gap | No news and no sentiment data available (Low confidence) | A catalyst landing without coverage in this dataset | Re-run once news/sentiment sources reconnect |
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能增强
RSI14=50中性
在通道中部
价涨量缩，上涨力度不足
Research boundary
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