泸州老窖
000568 · CN
000568 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 80.93 |
| Daily move | -2.42% |
| Strategy score | 44/100 (Signal: Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 24.03 / 12.83 (oversold) |
| MACD line / signal / hist | -3.31 / -3.18 / -0.13 (bearish) |
| Estimated support | 80.74 |
| Estimated resistance | 93.39 |
| 30-session range position | +2.32% (range 80.50-99.02) |
| Data confidence | Technicals: Moderate; Fundamentals/News/Sentiment: Low |
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 83.37 / 84.36 / 87.07 / 95.78 | Bearish alignment; price below all MAs; MA5<MA20 death cross (MA交叉 10/100, StrongSell) |
| RSI (14/6) | 24.03 / 12.83 | Deeply oversold; rebound watch (RSI极值 85/100, StrongBuy) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -3.31 / -3.18 / -0.13 | Bearish, below zero line, momentum fading (MACD背离 20/100, Sell) |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 13.22 / 15.77 / 8.12 | Soft / still repairing at low levels |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 93.39 / 87.07 / 80.74 | Near lower band (1% of band); bandwidth expanding (布林带 65/100, Buy) |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 2.01 / +2.49% | Moderate daily volatility envelope |
| OBV / 20-session slope | -201,954,659 / -55.01% | Distribution pressure visible |
| CCI20 | -144.91 | Downside pressure / oversold |
Confirmed: The downtrend is well-corroborated. Bearish MA alignment, sub-zero MACD, negative OBV slope, and CCI below -100 all point the same direction. Separately, the oversold cluster (RSI14 24.03, RSI6 12.83, KDJ J 8.12) is internally consistent and supports a rebound-watch thesis.
Conflicted: Trend signals (MA, MACD, OBV) versus mean-reversion signals (RSI, KDJ, Bollinger lower-band proximity) disagree on near-term direction. This tension is the reason the composite score lands at a neutral Hold (44/100) despite a strong bearish trend - the oversold readings offset the trend penalty.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so none are folded in. Volume context is partial: current volume is -3.17% versus the 20-session average (12,009,072), described as a low-volume pullback that may be stabilizing (量价关系 55/100, Hold).
No configured fundamentals source returned usable valuation data for this symbol. PE, PB, EV/EBITDA, PEG proxy, StockKit fair value range, and sector context were all returned as N/A (AkShare / EODHD fallback, Low confidence) and are therefore omitted per the data rules. No valuation-based view can be formed in this brief; this section carries low confidence.
| Status | Detail |
|---|---|
| Confirmed news | None. No current news items were available from the configured source. |
| Missing data | Headline coverage and event calendar are unavailable; no earnings dates, corporate actions, or catalysts can be cited. |
Because no headlines were returned, no catalyst can be weighed. The absence of news does not imply an absence of events - it reflects a data-source gap. Treat the catalyst picture as undetermined and lower confidence.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned. Social channels (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not connected, so no reading is inferred from them. The sentiment picture is effectively blank and should not be used as a directional input.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price chops near the 80.74 support / 80.50 range-low zone while oversold readings unwind | Stabilization on continued low volume (current -3.17% vs 20-session avg); RSI14 drifting off 24.03 without strong follow-through buying | A clean break and close below 80.50 range low, or a momentum thrust back above MA5 83.37 |
| Upside | Oversold rebound off the lower Bollinger band (80.74) with momentum turning | RSI6 lifting off 12.83, KDJ crossing up from K 13.22, MACD histogram (-0.13) turning positive; first watch level MA5 83.37, then MA20 87.07, resistance 93.39 (+15.40% away) | Failure to reclaim MA5; OBV slope (-55.01%) staying negative; fresh lower lows |
| Downside | Loss of the 80.74 / 80.50 support cluster | Daily close below 80.50 with expanding ATR (currently 2.01 / +2.49%) and continued OBV distribution | Reclaim of 80.74 and a hold above it; oversold rebound taking hold |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation lower | Bearish MA alignment; MACD -3.31 below zero; OBV slope -55.01% | Close below 80.50 30-session low | Watch the 80.74 / 80.50 zone daily; note volume on any break |
| Oversold bounce fails | Trend signals override mean-reversion; price -7.05% below MA20 | Rejection at MA5 83.37 or MA20 87.07 | Track whether rebounds reclaim and hold MA5 |
| Distribution pressure | OBV -201,954,659 with -55.01% slope | OBV continues falling on down days | Watch OBV slope alongside price for divergence/confirmation |
| Information gaps | No valuation, no news, no connected sentiment | Any new disclosure or data-feed reconnection | Re-check fundamentals, news, and sentiment sources before acting on this brief |
| Volatility expansion | ATR14 +2.49%; Bollinger bandwidth expanding | Wider daily ranges around support | Size expectations to the ATR envelope when assessing watch levels |
MA5<MA20死叉，空头排列
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=24超卖，短期极度超卖
接近下轨，可能反弹，带宽扩张中
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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