伊利股份
600887 · CN
600887 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 26.37 |
| Daily move | 0.00% |
| Strategy score | 64/100 (Buy) |
| Trend | Bull (MA5>MA10>MA20>MA60) |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 50.88 / 40.98 (neutral) |
| MACD | Line 0.44 / Signal 0.43 / Hist 0.01 (bullish, momentum easing) |
| Estimated support | 24.57 (lower Bollinger band) |
| Estimated resistance | 28.16 (upper Bollinger band) |
| 30-session range position | +66.24% (range 23.76-27.70) |
| Data confidence | Technicals moderate; valuation moderate; news/sentiment low |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 27.12 / 26.99 / 26.36 / 25.99 | Bullish alignment; price sits right on MA20 (+0.02%) |
| RSI (14/6) | 50.88 / 40.98 | Neutral; RSI6 below RSI14 shows near-term softness |
| MACD | 0.44 / 0.43 / 0.01 | Bullish (above zero, golden cross) but histogram near flat signals fading momentum |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 54.36 / 66.31 / 30.44 | Soft/repairing; K below D and low J point to short-term cooling |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 28.16 / 26.36 / 24.57 | Mid-band (~50% of band); no volatility breakout signal |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 0.69 / +2.62% | Moderate volatility; roughly a 0.69 daily range budget |
| OBV / 20-sess slope | 517,807,427 / +610.95% | Accumulation improving; volume flow trending up |
| CCI20 | 22.99 | Inside neutral band; no overbought/oversold extreme |
Confirmed: the uptrend backbone (MA alignment), a bullish MACD structure, and improving OBV accumulation all point the same direction.
Conflicted: MACD histogram near flat, a soft KDJ, and RSI6 (40.98) below RSI14 (50.88) all suggest near-term momentum is easing even while the trend structure stays bullish. Volume is -3.46% versus the 20-session average, consistent with the strategy note of a low-volume pullback that may be stabilizing.
Missing: no intraday range to work with (high = low = 26.37), so today gives no fresh directional signal on its own. No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel above.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.41 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 2.8 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 2.05 | StockKit scenario model (internal) | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear 25.15 / Base 32.46 / Bull 41.48 (CNY) | StockKit DCF scenario model (internal) | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +23.1% | StockKit DCF scenario model (internal) | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +1.03% / Base +7.03% / Bull +13.03% | StockKit scenario model (internal) | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 115.93B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 11.56B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 1.83 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 9.42 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +38.37% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +15.66% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
The reported PE of 14.41 and net margin of 15.66% describe a profitable operator on the supplied income data (period 2025-12-31). The StockKit DCF base case (32.46) implies a +23.1% gap to the 26.37 price, but this and the PEG proxy (2.05) are internally computed scenario outputs, not analyst consensus, and the PEG above 2 tempers the growth-adjusted read. All valuation rows carry Medium confidence. EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, market cap, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Configured news source | No current news items were available |
No confirmed headlines were returned for 600887 from the configured source, so no company-specific catalyst can be dated or weighted here. This is a data gap, not evidence of quiet fundamentals. Because there is no confirmed news, the near-term thesis leans on technical and valuation inputs, and any catalyst-driven view should be treated as lower confidence until headline coverage is restored.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Headline coverage is empty and the social feed is not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum reading is available or inferred. Sentiment confidence is low; treat this section as an absence of signal rather than a neutral signal.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the MA20 zone (26.36) and consolidates inside the Bollinger band | Sustained trade between 26.36 and 28.16 with OBV slope staying positive (+610.95%) and MACD above zero | Loss of MA20 with RSI14 rolling below 50 and OBV slope flattening |
| Upside | Confirmed break above the 28.16 watch level (resistance = upper band) | Close above 28.16 with expanding volume back above the 20-session average and MACD histogram re-expanding | Rejection at 28.16 on weak volume, price falling back below MA5 (27.12) |
| Downside | Break below the 24.57 watch level (support = lower band) | Close under 24.57 toward the 30-session low (23.76) with rising volume and RSI6 leading lower | Reclaim of MA20 (26.36) and a bounce holding above 24.57 |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum stall inside uptrend | MACD histogram 0.01, KDJ soft (K 54.36 < D 66.31), RSI6 40.98 < RSI14 | Histogram turns negative / MACD cross down | Watch daily MACD and RSI6 vs RSI14 for continued divergence |
| Low-volume drift | Volume -3.46% vs 20-session average; flat 0.00% session | Volume stays thin on any move toward 28.16 | Compare daily volume against the 73.5M average before trusting a breakout |
| Support failure | Support 24.57 is the lower band; 30-session low 23.76 sits below it | Close below 24.57 | Set 24.57 as a downside watch level; escalate if 23.76 breaks |
| Valuation reliance on internal model | Base fair value 32.46 and PEG 2.05 are StockKit scenario outputs, not consensus; all rows Medium | Realized growth diverges from the +7.03% base forecast | Treat the +23.1% gap as model-dependent; revisit if reported fundamentals shift |
| News/sentiment blind spot | No headlines; social not connected (both Low confidence) | Any unpriced catalyst emerges | Restore headline coverage; re-check before acting on price moves |
MA5>MA20金叉，多头排列
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI14=51中性
在通道中部
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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