International Business Machines Corporation
IBM · US
IBM Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 249.10 |
| Daily move | -5.05% |
| Strategy score | 64/100 (Buy) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 65.43 / 79.91 |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | 2.53 / -1.99 / 4.52 |
| Estimated support | 206.32 |
| Estimated resistance | 255.03 |
| 30-session range position | +70.64% (range 212.34-264.38) |
| Data confidence | Medium (technicals complete; news/sentiment absent) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 247.54 / 233.51 / 230.67 / 240.22 | Mixed-to-bullish; MA5>MA10>MA20>MA60, price +7.99% above MA20 |
| RSI (14 / 6) | 65.43 / 79.91 | RSI14 constructive but elevated; RSI6 stretched into overbought |
| MACD | 2.53 / -1.99 / 4.52 | Bullish: line above signal and above zero, histogram positive and expanding |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 74.88 / 65.32 / 94.01 | Constructive crossover; J at 94.01 signals near-term overextension |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 255.03 / 230.67 / 206.32 | Price near upper band (88%); band width expanding |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 8.39 / +3.29% | Elevated volatility; daily true range ~3.3% of price |
| OBV (value / 20-session slope) | 24,726,218.29 / +785.66% | Accumulation improving; volume flow supports the up-move |
| CCI20 | 179.68 | Strong upside momentum; reading >100 indicates overbought territory |
Confirmed: The trend-following cluster aligns. MACD (bullish, above zero, expanding histogram), MA structure (MA5>MA10>MA20>MA60), OBV accumulation (+785.66% slope), and CCI20 (179.68) all point in the same upward direction, and volume at +18.74% versus the 20-session average (7,811,839) confirms participation behind the move.
Conflicted: Momentum oscillators flag overextension against the bullish trend. RSI6 (79.91), KDJ J-line (94.01), CCI20 (179.68), and the near-upper-band Bollinger position (88%) all sit in stretched territory, consistent with today's -5.05% pullback. The strategy sub-scores reflect this tension: MA cross 70/100 (Buy) and MACD 85/100 (StrongBuy) versus RSI 45/100 (Hold) and Bollinger 40/100 (Hold).
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel above, so none are folded in here.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.31 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 7.17 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 3.50 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 1.24 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $223.87 / Base $307.87 / Bull $386.82 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +23.6% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $67.53B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $10.59B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $236.31B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $156.23B / Equity $32.97B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
The StockKit fair-value range (Bear $223.87 / Base $307.87 / Bull $386.82) and PEG proxy (1.24) are internally computed scenario outputs derived from reported fundamentals, not analyst consensus targets. On those internal forecasts, the Base case implies a +23.6% gap to the current 249.10. PE (22.31), PB (7.17), and Price/sales (3.50) rest on SEC EDGAR companyfacts at Medium confidence. EV/EBITDA was N/A in the supplied data and is omitted. Reported Revenue ($67.53B) and Net income ($10.59B) carry High confidence; both 52-week range and dividend yield were not supplied and are omitted.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Headline coverage | No current news items were available from the configured source |
| Confirmed catalysts | None supplied |
No confirmed news was returned for IBM from the configured source, so no catalyst can be assessed and no earnings date, rating, or company event is asserted here. This is a notable gap: the technical setup is moving on flow and momentum rather than any visible, documented catalyst in the dataset. Confidence on the catalyst picture is low until a news feed is connected.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. NewsAPI returned no headlines, and the social sentiment source is not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or forum reading is drawn. Sentiment confidence is Low; the crowd-positioning dimension of this brief is effectively blind.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the MA20 zone (230.67) with trend intact after today's pullback | MACD stays above zero and signal (line 2.53), OBV slope holds positive, price stabilizes between MA5 (247.54) and resistance (255.03) | Daily close back below MA20 (230.67) erasing the +7.99% premium |
| Upside | Sustained acceptance above the 255.03 resistance / Bollinger upper band | Volume stays above the 20-session average (7,811,839) on the breakout; movement toward the StockKit Base fair value ($307.87, +23.6% gap) | Failure to hold 255.03; rejection back into the band with RSI6 rolling over from 79.91 |
| Downside | Loss of MA20 (230.67) on continued momentum unwind | RSI6 (79.91), KDJ J (94.01), and CCI20 (179.68) mean-revert; price probes toward estimated support (206.32, -17.17% from current) | Reclaim of MA5 (247.54) and resumption of positive MACD histogram expansion |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum overextension | RSI6 79.91, KDJ J 94.01, CCI20 179.68, price at 88% of Bollinger band | Further oscillator roll-over alongside price weakness | Watch RSI6 crossing back below 70 and J-line falling under K-line |
| Sharp single-session reversal | Today's -5.05% move with ATR14% at +3.29% | Daily range exceeding ATR (8.39) to the downside | Track close versus MA5 (247.54) and MA20 (230.67) |
| Resistance rejection | Price +2.38% below 255.03 upper band | Failure to break and hold 255.03 | Watch for repeated intraday rejections at the band |
| Catalyst blind spot | No news returned from configured source | Unanticipated headline moving price against the technical read | Reconnect news feed; reassess once coverage is available |
| Sentiment blind spot | NewsAPI no headlines; social not connected | Crowd-positioning shift undetected by current feeds | Connect sentiment source before relying on positioning signals |
| Valuation premium | PB 7.17, Price/sales 3.50 on Medium-confidence inputs | Multiple compression in the broader tape | Monitor versus StockKit fair-value range (Base $307.87) |
1. Watch 255.03 (estimated resistance / Bollinger upper band): break-and-hold versus rejection is the primary near-term signal. 2. Watch MA20 at 230.67 as the trend-integrity floor; a daily close below it would erase the +7.99% premium. 3. Track RSI6 (79.91) and KDJ J-line (94.01) for mean-reversion out of overbought territory. 4. Monitor MACD histogram (+4.52) for continued expansion or first contraction below the signal line. 5. Confirm volume versus the 20-session average (7,811,839); +18.74% participation today should persist on any continuation. 6. Watch OBV slope (+785.66%) for any stall or rollover that would weaken the accumulation read. 7. Re-check the news and sentiment feeds; both returned no data, so reconnecting them is the highest-value information upgrade this week.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能增强
RSI14=65偏高
突破上轨，短期超买，带宽扩张中
价涨量增(1.2x)，走势确认
Research boundary
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