StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
PM · US · Cached
Generated 2026-06-19 00:56 UTC
PM
PM · US
$178.40
-0.58%
Technical posture
Constructive
Strategy score
63 / 100
Trend
bull
Data confidence
Medium
Research view
PM Research Preview
1. Bottom line
- Current setup: PM (Philip Morris International Inc.) trades at 178.40, down -0.58% on the session, holding a bullish moving-average stack (MA5 189.83 > MA10 188.76 > MA20 177.99 > MA60 169.89) but sitting only +0.23% above MA20 and mid-channel on Bollinger (51% of band). The structure is constructive yet the price has pulled back beneath its shorter MAs.
- Confidence: Medium overall. Technical inputs are complete and internally consistent (score 63/100, Buy, bull trend), but news and sentiment feeds returned nothing, and valuation carries a wide internally-modeled fair-value gap, so the directional conviction rests almost entirely on price/technical evidence.
- Most important condition to monitor: Whether price can reclaim the MA5/MA10 cluster near 188-190 on improving volume; current volume is -50.38% versus the 20-session average, so the "price up, volume thin" condition flagged in the score (55/100) is the key tell. Watch the 177.99 MA20 / Bollinger mid as the first downside pivot.
02Key data snapshot
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 178.40 |
| Daily move | -0.58% |
| Strategy score | 63/100 (Buy) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 67.84 / 67.58 |
| MACD line / signal / hist | 6.90 / 5.91 / 0.98 |
| Estimated support | 155.59 |
| Estimated resistance | 200.39 |
| 30-session range position | +63.26% (range 153.18-193.05) |
| Data confidence | Medium (technicals complete; news and sentiment absent) |
03Technical indicator panel
| Indicator | Reading | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 189.83 / 188.76 / 177.99 / 169.89 | Bullish alignment intact; MA5>MA20 golden cross. Price is below MA5/MA10 but +0.23% above MA20. |
| RSI (14/6) | 67.84 / 67.58 | Constructive, approaching but not at overbought extreme. Score flags RSI14=68 as elevated (45/100, Hold). |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | 6.90 / 5.91 / 0.98 | Bullish configuration above zero, but histogram is modest, indicating momentum is decelerating. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 79.34 / 85.07 / 67.89 | K below D with J lowest; reading is soft/repairing rather than confirming fresh upside. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 200.39 / 177.99 / 155.59 | Mid-band zone (51% of band). No squeeze or band-edge signal. |
| ATR14 / ATR% | 4.81 / +2.55% | Moderate volatility; roughly 2.55% of price per session of typical range. |
| OBV / 20-sess slope | 69,171,826 / +132.27% | Accumulation improving; OBV slope is the strongest secondary confirmation in the panel. |
| CCI20 | 72.11 | Inside a neutral band; neither overbought nor oversold. |
Confirmed: bullish MA structure, MACD above zero, and a steeply rising OBV slope all point the same direction. Conflicted: RSI is elevated and KDJ is soft/repairing while MACD histogram is shrinking, so momentum confirmation is incomplete; volume at -50.38% versus the 20-session average undercuts the price advance. Missing: no custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel above.
04Valuation matrix
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.49 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | -29.95 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 6.84 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.13 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | 3.12 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $103.68 / Base $133.62 / Bull $170.53 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -25.1% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +1.84% / Base +7.84% / Bull +13.84% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $40.65B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $11.35B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $277.95B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $68.91B / Equity $-9.28B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
Rows tagged StockKit scenario model (PEG proxy, fair-value range, base fair-value gap, 5Y growth forecast) are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. The negative PB of -29.95 follows directly from negative reported equity (-$9.28B against $68.91B assets), so the multiple is not meaningful as a standard book ratio and should be read alongside the balance-sheet context row. The internal DCF base case ($133.62) implies a -25.1% gap to the current 178.40 price, with even the bull case ($170.53) below market; this valuation tension is the main counterweight to the constructive technical picture. EV/EBITDA confidence is Low.
05News and catalyst timeline
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Configured news source | No items available | Without headline flow, near-term catalyst risk (earnings, regulatory, product) cannot be assessed from supplied data. Treat the directional read as technically driven and lower-confidence on event risk. |
No confirmed headlines were supplied, and no earnings dates, ratings, or corporate events are present in the dataset. This section is intentionally limited to the absence of data; no catalysts are inferred.
06Sentiment radar
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are available or constructed. Sentiment is a blind spot for this brief.
07Scenario framework
| Scenario | Trigger conditions | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the MA20 / Bollinger mid near 177.99; bullish MA stack persists | Stabilization between MA20 (177.99) and the MA5/MA10 cluster (188-190) with OBV slope staying positive | Sustained close below MA20 (177.99) or MA5>MA20 cross unwinding |
| Upside | Reclaim of 188-190 MA cluster with volume normalizing toward the 20-session average (4.81M) | Push toward resistance/Bollinger upper at 200.39, MACD histogram re-expanding, RSI holding without flipping to extreme | Failure to clear 190 on rising volume; momentum continuing to fade as histogram (0.98) shrinks |
| Downside | Loss of MA20 (177.99) on expanding volume | Slide toward the 30-session low (153.18) and Bollinger lower / support at 155.59 | Quick reclaim of MA20 and re-establishment of the bullish alignment |
08Risk matrix
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weak volume confirmation | Volume -50.38% vs 20-session avg; score 55/100 "price up, volume thin" | Continued advances on declining volume | Track daily volume against the 4.81M 20-session average |
| Momentum fade | MACD histogram only 0.98; KDJ soft/repairing | Histogram turning negative or KDJ rolling over | Watch MACD line vs signal (6.90 / 5.91) and KDJ K/D |
| RSI elevation | RSI14 67.84, flagged elevated (45/100) | RSI pushing into overbought extreme then reversing | Watch for RSI rollover from current levels |
| Valuation gap | Internal DCF base $133.62 vs price 178.40 (-25.1% gap); bull case $170.53 still below market | Market re-rating toward modeled fair value | Note this is a model-based gap, Medium confidence; reassess on new fundamentals |
| Event blind spot | No news or sentiment data available | Unscheduled catalyst arriving without prior signal in this dataset | Re-run with connected news/sentiment feeds before acting on the technical read |
| Negative equity context | Reported equity -$9.28B; PB -29.95 not meaningful | Misreading PB as a standard valuation signal | Use revenue/net income and EV/EBITDA context rather than PB |
9. Seven-day watch checklist
1. MA20 / Bollinger mid at 177.99 - first downside pivot; watch for a sustained close below.
2. MA5/MA10 reclaim zone 188-190 - the level that would re-confirm short-term strength.
3. Daily volume versus the 4.81M 20-session average - the thin-volume risk is the primary caveat.
4. MACD histogram (currently 0.98) - expansion confirms, contraction warns of momentum fade.
5. RSI14 (67.84) - watch for either a constructive hold or a rollover from elevated levels.
6. KDJ K/D (79.34 / 85.07) - confirm whether the soft/repairing read resolves up or down.
7. Resistance / Bollinger upper at 200.39 and support / lower at 155.59 - the outer watch levels framing the current range.
Information-use note
This brief is built only from the supplied StockKit dataset. News and sentiment feeds returned no data, so event and crowd-positioning risk could not be assessed and the directional read is technically driven at Medium confidence. Fair-value and growth figures tagged StockKit scenario model are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. This is not personalized investment advice; all levels are watch levels, not instructions.
Strategy factors
MA交叉Strong momentum
90
MA5>MA20金叉，多头排列
MACD背离Constructive
70
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI极值Neutral
45
RSI14=68偏高
布林带Neutral
50
在通道中部
量价关系Neutral
55
价涨量缩，上涨力度不足
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.
Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.