SMCI
SMCI · US
SMCI Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | $29.81 |
| Daily move | -0.96% |
| Strategy score / signal | 39/100 / Sell |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 41.94 / 40.04 (soft, not washed out) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -1.95 / -1.84 / -0.11 (bearish) |
| Estimated support | $24.92 (+16.41% below price) |
| Estimated resistance | $34.15 (+14.55% above price) |
| 30-session range | $25.41 - $51.40 |
| Range position | +16.95% (lower third) |
| Data confidence | Technical High; fundamentals Mixed (High/Medium/Low); news thin; social not connected |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 27.73 / 27.82 / 29.53 / 32.55 | Bearish alignment; price +0.93% over MA20 but below MA60 |
| RSI (14/6) | 41.94 / 40.04 | Soft but not oversold; neutral zone |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -1.95 / -1.84 / -0.11 | Bearish, below zero line; histogram mildly negative |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 39.81 / 29.81 / 59.82 | Constructive short-term crossover (K over D) |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 34.15 / 29.53 / 24.92 | Mid-band, ~53% of channel width |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 1.91 / +6.90% | Elevated single-day range as share of price |
| OBV (level / 20d slope) | 41,986,035.58 / -86.46% | Distribution pressure; volume flow declining |
| CCI20 | -70.51 | Inside neutral band |
Confirmed: The bearish backbone is consistent across MA structure, MACD (below zero), and OBV distribution pressure, and the strategy engine grades MA交叉 at 10/100 (StrongSell) and MACD背离 at 35/100 (Sell). Volume is light, -58.16% versus the 20-session average of 54,478,779, which the engine reads as 量价关系 55/100 (Hold, "缩量回调，可能企稳" - a low-volume pullback that may stabilize).
Conflicted: The short-term KDJ crossover and mid-band Bollinger position push against the bearish MA/MACD backbone. RSI (42, Hold 50/100), Bollinger (Hold 50/100), and CCI (neutral -70.51) sit in no-man's-land, so the signal is a downtrend attempting to base rather than a fresh breakdown.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the set above. ATR is present but there is no volatility-regime history to compare it against, so the +6.90% ATR should be read as a snapshot only.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.86 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 2.47 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 0.85 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.57 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | 0.99 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $33.46 / Base $46.02 / Bull $57.82 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +54.4% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $21.97B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $1.05B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $18.73B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $23.45B / Equity $7.58B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
The StockKit fair-value range ($33.46 / $46.02 / $57.82) and PEG proxy (0.99) are internally computed scenario outputs derived from reported fundamentals, not analyst consensus targets. The +54.4% base fair-value gap is a model output; note the EV/EBITDA row carries Low confidence, so cross-check it against the higher-confidence Revenue and balance-sheet figures (2025-06-30 annual period) rather than leaning on the multiple alone.
| Category | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmed headlines | None available | The configured news source returned no current items |
| Missing data | News flow, earnings dates, corporate actions | Not supplied; cannot be inferred |
No dated headlines were available from the configured source, so this section carries the lowest confidence in the brief. There is no confirmed catalyst to attach to the current price action, and no earnings date, guidance event, or corporate action has been supplied. Any near-term view therefore rests on price/technical and sentiment-score evidence rather than event flow.
Aggregate ticker news sentiment is Neutral at 0.126 across 50 scored headlines.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha Vantage ticker news | Connected | 27 positive / 14 neutral / 9 negative scored headlines | High |
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | Reddit, X, StockTwits, and local forums not configured | Low |
The only connected feed is Alpha Vantage news sentiment, which skews modestly positive by count (27 positive vs 9 negative) yet nets to a Neutral 0.126 composite. This covers news/feed sentiment only, not social channels. NewsAPI returned no distribution and social sources are not connected, so there is no crowd-positioning signal to report.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What confirms it | What invalidates it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the mid-band around MA20 $29.53; low-volume pullback stabilizes (volume -58.16% vs 20d avg) | Sustained closes in the $29.53-$34.15 band with MACD histogram narrowing from -0.11 toward zero | Loss of $24.92 lower band, or MACD histogram re-expanding lower |
| Upside | Reclaim and hold above the $34.15 upper-band/resistance zone on rising volume | KDJ crossover follows through, MACD line crosses its signal, OBV slope turning up from -86.46% | Failure at $34.15 with volume fading; RSI stalling in the low-40s |
| Downside | Break of the $24.92 support/lower-band zone | Bearish MA alignment persists (MA5<MA20 死叉) and OBV distribution continues | Reclaim of MA20 $29.53 and a positive KDJ/MACD alignment |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation to the downside | Bearish MA alignment; MA交叉 10/100 StrongSell; MACD below zero | Close below $24.92 support | Watch $24.92 lower band and MACD histogram direction |
| Distribution / weak participation | OBV 20d slope -86.46%; volume -58.16% vs 20d avg | OBV making new lows while price holds | Track OBV slope alongside daily volume vs the 54.5M average |
| False stabilization | Constructive KDJ vs bearish MA/MACD backbone conflict | KDJ crossover fails and price rejects MA20 | Confirm any bounce with volume and MACD, not KDJ alone |
| Elevated single-day volatility | ATR14 +6.90% of price | Wider daily ranges around watch levels | Size expectations to the ~$1.91 ATR when reading level breaks |
| Catalyst/information gap | No news items; social not connected; EV/EBITDA Low confidence | Unscheduled headline moves price outside the band | Re-check the news feed before acting on any level break |
MA5<MA20死叉，空头排列
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能增强
RSI14=42中性
在通道中部
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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