StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
000776 · CN · Cached
Generated 2026-06-19 02:57 UTC
广发证券
000776 · CN
¥20.64
-3.64%
Technical posture
Neutral
Strategy score
56 / 100
Trend
bull
Data confidence
Medium
Research view
000776 Research Preview
1. Bottom line
- Current setup: 广发证券 (000776) trades at CNY 20.64 (-3.64%) in a precomputed bull trend with a constructive MA structure (MA5 20.89 > MA10 19.88 > MA20 19.44 > MA60 19.53) and bullish MACD (line 0.30 / signal 0.02 / histogram 0.28), but the down day arrived on volume +36.11% above the 20-session average, flagging distribution into strength.
- Confidence: Medium overall. Technical and valuation inputs are populated (overall strategy score 56/100, "Hold"), but news and sentiment feeds returned nothing, so catalyst and positioning analysis are low confidence.
- Most important level/condition to monitor: The CNY 21.23 upper Bollinger band / estimated resistance zone (price sits at 83% of band width, only +2.88% away); whether the stock reclaims and holds it on rising volume, versus rejecting on the current price-down/volume-up pattern, is the decisive near-term tell.
02Key data snapshot
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 20.64 |
| Daily move | -3.64% |
| Strategy score | 56/100 (Signal: Hold) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 59.46 / 60.62 (constructive, not extreme) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | 0.30 / 0.02 / 0.28 (bullish, momentum easing) |
| Estimated support | CNY 17.64 (+14.53% below price) |
| Estimated resistance | CNY 21.23 (+2.88% above price) |
| 30-session range position | +68.07% (range 18.38-21.70) |
| Data confidence | Medium (technicals/valuation); Low (news/sentiment) |
03Technical indicator panel
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 20.89 / 19.88 / 19.44 / 19.53 | Bullish stack; price +6.19% over MA20. MA5>MA20 golden cross noted (MA交叉 70/100, Buy) |
| RSI (14/6) | 59.46 / 60.62 | Constructive, mid-range, no overbought extreme (RSI极值 50/100, Hold) |
| MACD | 0.30 / 0.02 / 0.28 | Golden cross above zero line, but histogram momentum described as weakening (MACD背离 70/100, Buy) |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 76.93 / 71.01 / 88.78 | Constructive crossover; J at 88.78 is stretched and signals near-term overextension risk |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 21.23 / 19.44 / 17.64 | Near upper band (83% of width), band expanding (布林带 50/100, Hold) |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 0.76 / +3.66% | Moderate daily volatility; roughly CNY 0.76 typical range |
| OBV / 20-session slope | -81,191,227 / +74.32% | Absolute level negative, but slope rising sharply: accumulation improving |
| CCI20 | 141.89 | Above +100, indicating strong upside momentum |
- Confirmed: Trend and momentum lean constructive: bullish MA stack, MACD above zero, CCI strong, KDJ crossover, OBV slope improving.
- Conflicted: Today's price-down/volume-up action (量价关系 35/100, Sell, "价跌放量 1.4x，抛压沉重") sits against the bullish trend signals. KDJ J (88.78) and Bollinger position (83%) suggest the move is stretched even as MACD/CCI stay positive.
- Missing: No intraday breadth, no custom indicators were supplied, so this panel rests entirely on the standard set above.
04Valuation matrix
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.29 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 1.17 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 0.68 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 33.68 / Base CNY 46.32 / Bull CNY 58.20 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +124.4% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 35.49B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 13.70B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 1.68 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 17.61 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +43.76% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
PE 12.29 and PB 1.17 sit against a stated net margin of +43.76% (income period 2025-12-31). The PEG proxy (0.68) and fair-value range are StockKit scenario-model outputs, not analyst consensus; the +124.4% base fair-value gap is an internally computed forecast and should be weighed as a model view rather than a target. EV/EBITDA, market cap, dividend yield, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted. Gross margin was N/A and is omitted.
05News and catalyst timeline
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Headline news | No current news items were available from the configured source |
| Upcoming catalysts | None supplied |
No confirmed headlines were returned, so no catalyst can be evaluated. This is a data gap, not evidence of an absence of events: any catalyst-driven view here is low confidence. No earnings dates, ratings, or company events are asserted because none were supplied.
06Sentiment radar
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned. Social channels (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not connected, so no reading is drawn from them. Sentiment input is effectively absent and rated Low confidence.
07Scenario framework
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Holds the MA20 (19.44) / MA10 (19.88) shelf while MACD stays above zero (0.30/0.02) | Stabilization in the 19.4-21.2 band with RSI holding ~50-60 and OBV slope (+74.32%) staying positive | Daily close below MA20 (19.44) with MACD histogram (0.28) rolling toward zero |
| Upside | Reclaims and holds resistance / upper band at 21.23 on volume above the 20-session average (76.48M) | Break above the 30-session high (21.70) with CCI (141.89) staying >100 and RSI not turning down | Rejection at 21.23 with another price-down/volume-up session (today's 1.4x pattern) |
| Downside | Loss of MA20 (19.44) confirms the distribution flagged by 量价关系 (35/100, Sell) | Move toward estimated support 17.64 / lower band, OBV slope flattening | Quick reclaim of MA10 (19.88) and a return of MACD histogram expansion |
08Risk matrix
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution into strength | 量价关系 35/100 Sell; price -3.64% on volume +36.11% vs 20-session average | Repeat price-down/volume-up sessions near 21.23 | Track daily volume vs the 76.48M average on down days |
| Overextension / mean reversion | KDJ J 88.78, CCI20 141.89, price at 83% of Bollinger band | RSI/KDJ rolling over from elevated levels | Watch for RSI14 dropping back through ~50 and J cooling |
| Momentum fade | MACD histogram described as weakening (0.28); strategy signal "Hold" (56/100) | Histogram contracting toward signal line | Monitor MACD line vs signal (0.30/0.02) for a cross |
| Catalyst blind spot | News source returned no items; sentiment Not connected | Any unscheduled headline | Re-check news/sentiment feeds before acting on technicals |
| Resistance rejection | Estimated resistance 21.23 only +2.88% away; 30-session position +68.07% | Failure to clear 21.23 / 21.70 | Watch close relative to 21.23 and prior range high 21.70 |
9. Seven-day watch checklist
1. CNY 21.23 upper band / resistance: reaction on each test, and whether a reclaim holds (highest priority).
2. Daily volume vs the 76.48M 20-session average, especially on down days, to confirm or refute distribution.
3. MA20 (19.44) as the line-in-the-sand support for the base case; close below shifts bias to downside.
4. MACD histogram (0.28) trajectory: expanding versus rolling toward the signal line.
5. KDJ J (88.78) and CCI20 (141.89) for cooling from stretched levels.
6. OBV 20-session slope (+74.32%) staying positive as a check on the accumulation read.
7. News and sentiment feeds reconnecting: any restored headline coverage that could re-rate the low-confidence sections.
Information-use note
This brief reflects only the supplied dataset. Technical and valuation sections are Medium confidence; news and sentiment sections are Low confidence due to empty source feeds. Watch levels are observation points, not instructions, and nothing here is personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.
Strategy factors
MA交叉Constructive
70
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD背离Constructive
70
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI极值Neutral
50
RSI14=59中性
布林带Neutral
50
接近上轨，带宽扩张中
量价关系Weak
35
价跌放量(1.4x)，抛压沉重
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.
Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.