MSFT
MSFT · US
MSFT Research Preview
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| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | $396.37 |
| Daily move | +1.87% |
| Day range | $391.30 - $400.21 |
| Volume | 11.2M (-30.6% vs. 20-session avg of 49.3M) |
| Strategy score / signal | 53 / 100 - Hold |
| Trend regime | Consolidation |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 48.11 / 57.37 |
| MACD histogram | +1.85 (bullish cross; lines still below zero) |
| Estimated support | $353.02 (Bollinger lower; -10.9% from price) |
| Estimated resistance | $416.76 (Bollinger upper; +5.1% from price) |
| 30-session range position | 40.3% (range: $349.20 - $466.32) |
| Data confidence | Medium overall; no news or sentiment feeds connected |
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| Indicator | Value(s) | Interpretation | Signal status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA5 / MA10 / MA20 | $380.62 / $373.56 / $384.89 | All three short-term MAs below current price; positive short-term slope confirmed | Confirmed bullish (short-term) |
| MA60 | $406.41 | Price 2.5% below MA60; medium-term structure not yet recovered | Bearish overhang - conflicted |
| RSI14 | 48.11 | Mid-band neutral; no overbought or oversold extreme | Neutral |
| RSI6 | 57.37 | Short-term momentum slightly positive; not diverging from RSI14 | Mildly constructive |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | -8.66 / -10.51 / +1.85 | Bullish cross confirmed; both lines remain below zero axis - momentum improving but not yet positive | Bullish direction, bearish magnitude |
| KDJ (K / D / J) | 74.65 / 55.46 / 113.03 | J-line above 100 signals short-term overheating; K/D spread widening | Caution - extended |
| Bollinger Bands | Upper $416.76 / Mid $384.89 / Lower $353.02 | Price at 68% of band width; mid-band zone with5.1% room to upper band | Neutral; range intact |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | $13.15 / 3.40% | Moderate daily swing range; neither low-volatility compression nor high-volatility expansion | Informational |
| OBV / 20-session slope | -337.3M / -2.44% | Cumulative volume-weighted selling pressure; slope has not yet reversed despite price recovery attempt | Bearish divergence - conflicted with price |
| CCI20 | 2.16 | Deep inside the±100 neutral band | Neutral |
What is confirmed: The short-term MA structure (MA5 > MA10 > MA20) and the MACD histogram turning positive to +1.85 are mutually consistent with a near-term recovery attempt. RSI14 at 48.11 is not overbought, leaving headroom to the upside.
What is conflicted: MA60 ($406.41) remains above price, meaning the medium-term trend has not fully recovered. The OBV 20-session slope of -2.44% indicates that cumulative buying volume has not kept pace with the price bounce - a distribution-pattern divergence. The KDJ J at 113.03 is above the 100 overextension threshold, raising mean-reversion risk in the short term.
What is missing: No custom or proprietary indicators, sector-relative strength, options-market data (implied volatility, put/call ratio), or institutional flow data were supplied. These would materially improve directional confidence.
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| Metric | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.09× | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| P/B | 6.68× | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / Sales | 8.90× | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.15× | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | **Low** |
| PEG proxy | 1.23 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue (FY2026) | $331.84B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income (FY2026) | $133.75B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Total assets / Equity | $758.38B / $442.39B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $2.95T | SEC shares + live quote | Medium |
| StockKit fair-value range | Bear $359.80 / Base $494.79 / Bull $621.68 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +24.8% above current price ($396.37) | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5-year growth assumption | Bear +10.0% / Base +18.0% / Bull +24.0% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
Notes: - The StockKit fair-value range is an internally computed DCF scenario output derived from reported fundamentals using the growth assumptions shown above. It is not a published analyst consensus target and should not be interpreted as a return projection. - The +24.8% base fair-value gap represents the distance between the current market price and the StockKit base DCF output ($494.79); it reflects model inputs and assumptions, not market expectations. - EV/EBITDA of 19.15× is flagged as low confidence in the source data and should be treated as directionally indicative only; cross-validation with a third-party source is recommended before use in relative-valuation comparisons. - At a PEG proxy of 1.23 (StockKit scenario model, medium confidence), MSFT does not appear structurally overvalued relative to its base-case growth assumption of +18% annually, but the absence of third-party consensus estimates limits cross-validation of this reading. - Latest annual income-statement period: FY ending 2026-06-30. SEC CIK: 0000789019 (MICROSOFT CORP.).
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Confirmed news items: None. No current news items were returned from the configured source at report generation time (2026-07-30T06:03:57Z).
Lower-confidence zone - missing data: The absence of news data materially reduces near-term catalyst visibility for this report. The categories below represent types of events that would typically be monitored for MSFT at this stage in its fiscal calendar, but none can be confirmed, denied, or detailed from the supplied dataset. They are listed to flag what is missing, not to assert that any event is scheduled.
| Potential catalyst category | Data status | Why it would matter if confirmed |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 full-year earnings release / guidance | Not confirmed | FY2026-06-30 is the period used in supplied financials; any forward guidance would update DCF inputs |
| Azure / Intelligent Cloud segment update | Not confirmed | Cloud revenue growth rate is the primary driver behind the StockKit base growth assumption of +18% |
| AI / Copilot product or partnership development | Not confirmed | OpenAI-related announcements have historically generated significant price-volume events |
| Macro / rate environment | Not confirmed | A change in the US risk-free rate directly affects the discount rate underpinning the StockKit DCF fair-value range |
| Share repurchase or dividend announcement | Not confirmed | Would affect P/B and market-cap calculations; balance sheet equity of $442.39B provides context |
Important: None of the above should be assumed to be imminent or scheduled. They represent analytical context for the absent news data, not event forecasts.
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| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines returned | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
Interpretation: No sentiment signal was available from any connected source. The sentiment posture for this brief is therefore neutral by default - not because sentiment is neutral, but because no connected data source returned a usable reading. Any directional sentiment characterization drawn outside of this table would be speculative and is not presented here.
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| Scenario | Trigger conditions | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Base - Continued consolidation** (most consistent with score 53/100 and CCI of 2.16) | Price oscillates between MA20 ($384.89) and Bollinger upper ($416.76); daily volume remains below 20-session average (49.3M) | RSI14 holds45-55 range; MACD histogram positive but not expanding materially; KDJ J-line cools from 113.03 toward 80 | Clean daily close below MA20 ($384.89), or a high-volume directional break through either the support ($353.02) or resistance ($416.76) band |
| **Upside - Trend resumption** (supported by MACD bullish cross and +24.8% base DCF gap; near-term hurdle is KDJ overextension) | Sustained daily close above MA60 ($406.41); up-day volume consistently above 20-session average (49.3M); OBV 20-session slope reverses to flat or positive | Price holds above MA60 on first retest; Bollinger upper ($416.76) begins expanding; RSI14 moves and holds above 55 | Rejection at MA60 ($406.41) with above-average volume on the rejection day; OBV continues to deteriorate |
| **Downside - Mean-reversion pullback** (flagged by KDJ J at 113.03, low-volume advance of -30.6% vs. average, and negative OBV slope) | Daily close below MA20 ($384.89) on above-average volume; MACD histogram turns negative again; KDJ K/D produces a bearish cross | Price tests Bollinger lower / estimated support ($353.02); RSI14 drops below 40; OBV slope steepens further negative | Price reclaims MA20 ($384.89) within 2-3 sessions with volume recovery above20-session average |
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| Risk | Evidence from supplied data | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| KDJ overextension / mean-reversion | KDJ J-line at 113.03, above the 100 overextension threshold | KDJ J crosses back below 80; price stalls or reverses near MA60 ($406.41) |
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能增强
RSI14=48中性
在通道中部
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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