MSTR
MSTR · US
MSTR Research Preview
| Field | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 112.53 |
| Daily move | -3.46% (high 117.75 / low 107.85) |
| Overall score | 48/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI | RSI14 44.64 / RSI6 29.59 |
| MACD | Line 2.56 / Signal 6.60 / Hist -4.04 |
| Estimated support | 153.74 |
| Estimated resistance | 196.79 |
| 30-session range position | -17.38% (range 125.04-197.00) |
| Data confidence | Technical: high; Valuation: mixed; News/Sentiment: low |
| Indicator | Reading | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| MA | MA5 164.36 / MA10 174.46 / MA20 175.26 / MA60 151.91 | Price (112.53) is -35.79% below MA20. Strategy module flags MA5 below MA20 (death cross). Note conflict: the precomputed structure label reads "MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60", but the supplied values show MA5 < MA10 < MA20, so the bullish-stacking label is not supported by the numbers. |
| RSI | RSI14 44.64 / RSI6 29.59 | RSI14 neutral-soft, RSI6 near oversold. Context: "soft but not washed out." No bullish divergence confirmed in the data. |
| MACD | Line 2.56 / Signal 6.60 / Hist -4.04 | Bearish: line below signal, histogram negative. MACD still above zero but momentum weakening. |
| KDJ | K 12.53 / D 24.28 / J -10.96 | Deeply oversold. Context: "washed-out / rebound watch." A K-over-D cross would be the first turn signal. |
| Bollinger Bands | Upper 196.79 / Mid 175.26 / Lower 153.74 | Price sits below the lower band; context tags it "near lower band (-96% of band)" with bandwidth expanding. Mean-reversion candidate, but expanding bands also reflect elevated volatility. |
| ATR | ATR14 10.68 (+6.68% of price) | Wide daily range. Any watch level should allow roughly one ATR of noise. |
| OBV | -37,870,816.92 / 20-session slope -556.38% | Distribution pressure visible; volume flow has been negative over the window. |
| CCI | CCI20-97.20 | Inside the neutral band (above the -100 oversold threshold), not yet an extreme reading. |
Confirmed: bearish MACD, oversold KDJ/RSI6, price below Bollinger lower band, negative OBV trend. These align on a downtrend that is short-term stretched.
Conflicted: the MA "bullish structure" label contradicts the actual MA values and the death-cross flag; Bollinger "possible rebound" sits against negative OBV distribution; CCI is neutral while KDJ is washed out.
Missing: no confirmed bullish divergence, no volume-expansion confirmation (current volume is -13.97% vs the 20-session average of 14,863,955), and no momentum reversal yet on MACD.
StockKit strategy module readings (folded in):
| Module | Score | Signal | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA cross | 30/100 | Sell | MA5 below MA20 (death cross) |
| MACD divergence | 40/100 | Hold | MACD death cross; MACD above zero line; momentum weakening |
| RSI extremes | 50/100 | Hold | RSI14 = 45, neutral |
| Bollinger | 65/100 | Buy | Near lower band, possible rebound, bandwidth expanding |
| Volume-price | 55/100 | Hold | Volume-contraction pullback, may stabilize |
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | -8.12 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 0.85 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 65.47 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | -6.87 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | -0.45 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $477.23M | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | -$3.85B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $31.25B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $54.27B / Equity $36.65B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
Notes: PE, EV/EBITDA, and PEG are negative because reported net income is negative (-$3.85B), so earnings-based multiples are not meaningful in the usual sense. The very high Price/Sales (65.47) reflects a small reported revenue base ($477.23M) relative to a $31.25B market cap, so the equity is priced on something other than current sales. PB at 0.85 sits below book, against equity of $36.65B. The PEG proxy and 5Y growth bands are StockKit scenario outputs computed from reported fundamentals, not analyst consensus. The StockKit DCF fair-value range and base fair-value gap were returned N/A and are omitted. Dividend yield and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
Confirmed news: None. The configured news source returned no current items for MSTR.
Missing data: There is no headline feed to assess, so no event-driven catalysts (earnings dates, filings, corporate actions) can be confirmed or dated from the supplied dataset. This section is low confidence by absence. Per the rules, no headlines, ratings, or events are invented here. Any catalyst work should be confirmed against a live source before use.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Reddit, X, StockTwits, and local-forum readings are not connected and therefore not reported. Sentiment is uninformative in this dataset, not neutral by measurement.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price chops below the 30-session floor while oversold momentum unwinds | Stabilization above 112.53 with KDJ K crossing above D and volume staying near the 20-session average | Trend signal flips out of bear, or a decisive break of either watch level below |
| Upside | Oversold rebound (KDJ washout, price below Bollinger lower band) plays out | Reclaim of 125.04 (30-session low), then 153.74 (support / lower band), ideally on volume expansion above the 14.86M 20-session average and MACD histogram turning less negative | Failure to reclaim 125.04, or OBV slope staying deeply negative |
| Downside | Distribution pressure (OBV slope -556.38%) continues and bearish MACD persists | Sustained closes below 107.85 (today's low) with expanding ATR and no KDJ turn | Reclaim and hold of 125.04, plus RSI6 lifting off the 29.59 oversold zone |
Levels above are watch levels for monitoring, not entry or exit instructions. Allow roughly one ATR (10.68) of noise around each.
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation lower | Bear trend, MACD line 2.56 < signal 6.60, OBV slope -556.38% | Daily close below 107.85 | Watch for follow-through volume and whether OBV slope deepens |
| Volatility / wide swings | ATR14 +6.68% of price, Bollinger bandwidth expanding | Intraday range expanding beyond recent ATR | Size any watch levels to the 10.68 ATR; avoid treating single prints as breaks |
| False-rebound risk | Oversold KDJ (J -10.96) with no volume confirmation (volume -13.97% vs avg) | Bounce that fails at 125.04 or 153.74 on low volume | Require volume expansion above 14.86M to validate a rebound |
| Earnings-quality / valuation | Net income -$3.85B, negative PE/EV/EBITDA, P/S 65.47 | Any fundamental update that changes the loss trajectory | Confirm against next filing; multiples are not meaningful while earnings are negative |
| Information gaps | No news, no sentiment feed, DCF fair value N/A | New catalyst emerging unseen by the dataset | Re-check live news/sentiment sources before acting on this brief |
1. 125.04 (30-session low): does price reclaim and hold it, or stay rejected below. 2. 107.85 (today's low): a sustained close below keeps downside scenario live. 3. KDJ K vs D: watch for a K-over-D cross as the first momentum-turn signal. 4. RSI6 (29.59): track whether it lifts off the oversold zone. 5. Volume vs 14.86M 20-session average: a rebound needs expansion, not the current -13.97% contraction. 6. OBV 20-session slope: watch for the distribution pressure (-556.38%) to flatten. 7. MACD histogram (-4.04): monitor for it to compress toward zero as a momentum-easing tell.
This brief is for general information only and is not personalized investment advice. It makes no return promises. All levels are observation points, and the news, sentiment, and DCF fair-value components are low confidence due to missing source data.
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI14=45中性
接近下轨，可能反弹，带宽扩张中
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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