QCOM
QCOM · US
I'm working through the price and moving average data to verify the alignment. The current price of 170.04 is below all the moving averages, but I need to double-check the MA ordering since the values seem inconsistent with what was precomputed.
Looking at the raw numbers: MA5 is 184.67, MA10 is 187.31, MA20 is 198.82, and MA60 is 194.68. This creates a mixed picture rather than a clean downtrend alignment. The technical indicators paint a bearish picture overall with a score of 43/100 suggesting a hold, though the Bollinger Bands show the price just above the support level at 169.50, with resistance at 228.14.
The 30-session range sits between 172.12 and 259.92, putting the current price of 170.04 actually below the range low. The valuation model shows a significant disconnect-the fair value range spans from $46.07 on the bear case to $71.86 on the bull case, with a base of $55.22, creating a -67.5% gap to current price. This internally computed scenario is quite bearish compared to market pricing. RSI readings are neutral at 46.32 for the 14-period and 50.70 for the 6-period. The data quality is mixed with thin news signals and low sentiment, though the valuation model itself carries medium confidence.
For the report, I'm including the supplied valuation metrics-PE, PB, EV/EBITDA, fair-value range, and market cap-while omitting PEG (not applicable), dividend yield, and 52-week range since those weren't provided. I'll also pull in price-to-sales, revenue, net income, and balance sheet data from the valuation table. The OBV is showing significant distribution pressure with a slope of -30.92%.# QCOM Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 170.04 |
| Daily move | +1.84% (day range 165.29-171.19) |
| Strategy score | 43/100 (Signal: Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 46.32 / 50.70 (neutral) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -6.82 / -4.88 / -1.94 (bearish) |
| Estimated support | 169.50 (+0.32% away) |
| Estimated resistance | 228.14 (+34.17% away) |
| 30-session range position | -2.37% (range 172.12-259.92) |
| Data confidence | Medium |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 184.67 / 187.31 / 198.82 / 194.68 | Bearish. Price is -14.47% below MA20; strategy notes MA5<MA20 death cross (30/100, Sell) |
| RSI (14/6) | 46.32 / 50.70 | Neutral momentum, no extreme (50/100, Hold) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -6.82 / -4.88 / -1.94 | Bearish, below zero line, histogram negative (35/100, Sell) |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 32.21 / 23.47 / 49.71 | Constructive crossover from a low base - the main countertrend positive |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 228.14 / 198.82 / 169.50 | Near lower band (1% of band width), stretched to the downside |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 13.98 / +7.32% | Elevated volatility; ~7% daily-range envelope to size levels around |
| OBV (level / 20d slope) | 198,434,294 / -30.92% | Distribution pressure visible; volume flow trending out |
| CCI20 | -42.48 | Inside neutral band, no oversold/overbought signal |
Confirmed: the downtrend is coherent across price-vs-MA structure, MACD, and OBV - all point the same bearish direction.
Conflicted: the supplied structural label "MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60" does not match the supplied MA values (MA5 184.67 < MA10 187.31 < MA20 198.82), and the strategy engine's own MA-cross note reads MA5<death cross. I flag this as an internal inconsistency in the supplied context; the numeric readings indicate a rising-value stack (MA5 lowest, MA60 above MA20), consistent with price sitting below all averages, so I weight the numbers over the label. KDJ's constructive crossover also sits against the broader bearish tape, so it reads as a bounce signal inside a downtrend rather than a trend reversal.
Missing: no custom indicators were supplied, so none are folded in here. No volume-weighted or intraday breadth series was provided beyond OBV and the 20-session volume comparison.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.91 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 38.28 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 4.24 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.34 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $46.07 / Base $55.22 / Bull $71.86 | StockKit DCF scenario model (internal forecast) | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -67.5% | StockKit DCF scenario model (internal forecast) | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model (internal forecast) | Medium |
| Revenue | $44.28B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $5.54B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $187.89B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $57.37B / Equity $4.91B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
The StockKit DCF and 5Y-growth rows are internally computed scenario outputs, not analyst consensus targets. They embed a contracting revenue assumption (base -4.00% over 5 years), which drives the wide -67.5% base fair-value gap versus the 170.04 price. That gap should be read as a model-versus-market divergence to investigate, not a price forecast: the reported PE of 33.91 and PB of 38.28 sit high relative to the model's shrinking-cash-flow inputs, so the tension is concentrated in the growth assumption. EV/EBITDA is flagged Low confidence and should carry the least weight. PEG proxy, dividend yield, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Date | Headline | Source | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Why Investors Shouldn't Sweat the Dip in Qualcomm's Handset Revenue, According to Experts | Barchart.com | Directly on-topic; addresses the handset-revenue softness that aligns with the model's contracting-growth assumption |
| 2026-07-31 | Qualcomm Stock Is Down 44%, But Data Center Opportunities Could Fuel a Comeback | Biztoc.com | On-topic; frames a data-center diversification thesis against a large drawdown |
| 2026-08-01 | Merge tag 'i2c-fixes-7.2-rc6'… linux kernel | Kernel.org | Not company-relevant; a Linux kernel commit unrelated to QCOM equity |
| 2026-07-31 | 亞馬遜強噴15%…台指期夜盤下滑1077點 | Yahoo Entertainment | Broad-market/regional wrap; no QCOM-specific content |
| 2026-07-30 | 微軟帶頭飆漲15%…費半強噴逾8%…台積電ADR大漲7.64% | Yahoo Entertainment | Semiconductor-sector sentiment context only; not QCOM-specific |
Confirmed and company-relevant: only the Barchart handset-revenue item and the Biztoc data-center item. Both are commentary headlines, not disclosed events. No earnings date, guidance, rating change, or corporate action was supplied, so no scheduled catalyst can be asserted.
Missing data: no earnings calendar, dividend declaration, product-launch date, or regulatory item was provided. Do not infer any dated catalyst from this set. The two Yahoo items and the Kernel.org item carry no QCOM-specific signal.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | 5 headlines | Yahoo Entertainment x2, Kernel.org x1, Barchart.com x1 (one Biztoc item also present) | Medium |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider-level sentiment score was supplied, so no numeric sentiment reading is reported. Reddit, X, StockTwits, and local-forum sources are not marked connected and are therefore not represented. The only interpretable tilt is qualitative: the two on-topic headlines both frame the recent decline constructively (handset dip downplayed, data-center comeback thesis), but two headlines is too thin to call a sentiment direction with confidence.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the 169.50 support / lower-band zone while trend stays bearish (score 43/100, Hold) | Continued oscillation between 169.50 support and the MA5/MA10 cluster (184.67-187.31) with neutral RSI (46.32) | Decisive close below 169.50, or a reclaim of MA20 at 198.82 |
| Upside | KDJ constructive crossover (K 32.21 > D 23.47) extends and price reclaims MA5 184.67 | MACD histogram (-1.94) narrowing toward zero and OBV slope (-30.92%) turning up on rising volume vs the 20-session average (21.2M) | Rejection at MA5/MA10 and renewed OBV distribution; failure to expand volume (current volume -39.21% vs average) |
| Downside | Loss of 169.50 support with price already at -2.37% within the 30-session range | Close below the 30-session low (172.12 was the range low; a sustained move under 169.50 confirms breakdown) plus MACD momentum increasing to the downside | Reclaim and hold above 169.50-172.12, KDJ crossover following through |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation to the downside | Bear trend, price -14.47% below MA20, MACD -6.82 below zero | Close below 169.50 support | Watch daily close vs 169.50 and MACD histogram direction |
| Distribution / weak participation | OBV 20-session slope -30.92%; current volume -39.21% vs 20-session average | OBV keeps falling on down days | Track OBV slope and volume vs the 21.2M average |
| Valuation-model divergence | StockKit base fair value $55.22 vs price 170.04 (-67.5% gap); PE 33.91, PB 38.28 | Confirmation of contracting revenue (base -4.00% 5Y assumption) | Watch handset-revenue commentary and any reported fundamentals |
| Elevated volatility | ATR14 +7.32% of price | Range expansion beyond the ~7% daily envelope | Size any watch levels using ATR; expect wide swings |
| Thin news / no sentiment score | Only 2 of 5 headlines company-relevant; no provider sentiment; social not connected | Sparse or off-topic flow persists | Treat catalyst and sentiment reads as low confidence until coverage improves |
| Internal data inconsistency | MA structural label conflicts with numeric MA stack | Recurring mismatch in supplied context | Reconcile against raw indicator values before acting |
1. Daily close relative to 169.50 support (the single most important level; price is only +0.32% above it). 2. Whether the lower-Bollinger pin at 169.50 holds or breaks. 3. KDJ follow-through - does the K/D crossover (32.21/23.47) sustain, and does price reclaim MA5 at 184.67? 4. MACD histogram (-1.94) - narrowing toward zero versus widening lower. 5. OBV 20-session slope (-30.92%) for any turn, and volume versus the 21.2M average (currently -39.21%). 6. Any new QCOM-specific, dated catalyst to replace the current thin, mostly off-topic news set. 7. RSI14 (46.32) drifting toward oversold (<30) or reclaiming >50 as a momentum tell.
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD死叉,MACD在零轴下方,动能增强
RSI14=46中性
在通道中部
价涨量缩,上涨力度不足
Merge tag 'i2c-fixes-7.2-rc6' of git://git.kernel.org/pub/scm/linux/kernel/git/andi.shyti/linux
Kernel.org · 2026-08-01
Why Investors Shouldn’t Sweat the Dip in Qualcomm’s Handset Revenue, According to Experts
Barchart.com · 2026-08-01
亞馬遜強噴15%!美股收紅、台積電ADR小漲0.23% 台指期夜盤下滑1077點
Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-07-31
Qualcomm Stock Is Down 44%, But Data Center Opportunities Could Fuel a Comeback
Biztoc.com · 2026-07-31
微軟帶頭飆漲15%!美股收紅「費半強噴逾8%」 台積電ADR大漲7.64%、台指期夜盤重返41K
Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-07-30
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