StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
TJX · US · Cached
Generated 2026-08-03 08:53 UTC

TJX

TJX · US

$156.38
+1.40%
Technical posture
Neutral
Strategy score
48 / 100
Trend
bear
Data confidence
High
Research view

I'm pulling together the market data for the report-price at 156.38 with a modest uptick, volume around 4.3 million shares. The technical indicators show a bearish trend with a Hold signal and RSI sitting at 38.37, suggesting weakness. I need to flag that the valuation metrics are based on older income statement data from early 2015, so I'll note lower confidence there.

Now I'm building out the valuation matrix with the available metrics-PE, PB, EV/EBITDA, and the fair-value range along with market cap. I'll include the supplied rows like price-to-sales and the balance sheet items since they're available in the data.

For the moving averages, the precomputed label says mixed alignment but the actual values show MA5 < MA10 < MA60 < MA20, which doesn't match. I need to report what the numbers actually show rather than rely on the label-price is sitting below both MA20 and MA60, which suggests downward pressure. The score panel flags a death cross between MA5 and MA20, so I'll note that alongside the observable levels.

Now I'm moving into the scenarios section with the support and resistance levels...# TJX Research Preview

1. Bottom line - Current setup: TJX trades at 156.38 (+1.40% on the session), below its MA20 of 159.39 (-1.89%) with a bearish MACD configuration (line -2.07, signal -0.99, histogram -1.09) and a soft RSI14 of 38.37. The overall StockKit score is 48/100 with a Hold signal and a bear trend classification, so the setup is a weak-but-stabilizing tape rather than a confirmed breakdown. - Confidence: Medium on the technical read (full indicator set supplied). Lower on valuation, because the supplied fundamentals reference a latest annual income-statement period of 2015-01-31, which is stale relative to a 2026-dated brief. Low on social sentiment (source not connected). - Most important level/condition to monitor: the MA20 watch level at 159.39. Reclaiming it would challenge the bear-trend label; losing the estimated support at 145.78 (currently +6.78% below price) would confirm downside continuation.
02Key data snapshot
MetricReading
Price156.38
Daily move+1.40% (H 157.62 / L 155.15)
StockKit score48/100 (Signal: Hold)
TrendBear
RSI14 / RSI638.37 / 33.09 (soft, not washed out)
MACD (line/signal/hist)-2.07 / -0.99 / -1.09 (bearish)
Estimated support145.78 (+6.78% below price)
Estimated resistance172.99 (+10.62% above price)
30-session range position+33.20% (range 149.61-170.00)
Volume vs 20-session avg-4.53% (4,309,390 vs 6,335,988)
Data confidenceTechnicals medium; valuation lower (stale period); social sentiment low
03Technical indicator panel
IndicatorReadingInterpretation
MA (5/10/20/60)152.67 / 152.81 / 159.39 / 157.12Price (156.38) sits below MA20 (-1.89%) and just below MA60; MA5<MA20 flags a death-cross condition (MA cross sub-score 30/100, Sell)
RSI14 / RSI638.37 / 33.09Soft but not oversold; RSI-extreme sub-score 60/100 reads RSI14 as low enough to favor a bounce
MACD-2.07 / -0.99 / -1.09Bearish, below zero line with strengthening negative momentum (sub-score 35/100, Sell)
KDJ (K/D/J)18.21 / 18.26 / 18.11Depressed and clustered; classified as soft or still repairing
Bollinger (U/M/L)172.99 / 159.39 / 145.78Mid-band zone at ~39% of band; band width expanding (sub-score 65/100, Buy on proximity to lower band)
ATR14 / ATR14%4.01 / +2.66%Moderate volatility; roughly a 4-point average daily range for stop/scaling math
OBV / 20-session slope20,034,969.10 / +13.25%Accumulation improving despite soft price action
CCI20-82.58Inside a neutral band, not yet at an oversold extreme

Confirmed: trend-following signals agree on softness - MACD below zero, MA20 overhead, KDJ depressed, price under MA20. Volume is contracting on the pullback (-4.53% vs the 20-session average), consistent with a low-conviction fade rather than distribution.

Conflicted: momentum-mean-reversion signals lean the other way. RSI14 (38.37) and lower-band proximity (65/100) argue for a possible bounce, and OBV's +13.25% slope suggests accumulation is building under a weak price. The precomputed "Mixed alignment (MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60)" label does not match the supplied values (MA5 152.67 < MA20 159.39); the observable numbers show MA5I need to continue from where the previous thinking was cut off in section 3, picking up mid-sentence and moving forward naturally with the analysis or reasoning.and MA10 sitting below MA20 and MA60, so I treat the alignment as bearish-to-mixed and defer to the raw readings.

Missing: no custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so none are folded in here. No intraday volume profile or tick-level data was provided, so conclusions rest on end-of-session aggregates.

04Valuation matrix
AxisReadingSourceConfidence
PE32.11SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
PB16.96SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
Price / sales6.07SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
EV/EBITDA28.9SEC EDGAR companyfactsLow
PEG proxy1.98StockKit scenario modelMedium
StockKit fair value rangeBear $97.65 / Base $125.38 / Bull $157.95StockKit DCF scenario modelMedium
Base fair-value gap-19.8%StockKit DCF scenario modelMedium
5Y growth forecastBear +10.00% / Base +16.24% / Bull +22.24%StockKit scenario modelMedium
Revenue$29.08BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh
Net income$5.49BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh
Market cap$176.40BSEC shares outstanding + live quoteMedium
Balance sheet contextAssets $36.16B / Equity $10.40BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh

The PEG proxy (1.98) and fair-value range are StockKit scenario outputs computed from reported fundamentals, not analyst consensus targets. The Base fair-value gap of -19.8% implies price currently sits above the model's base case, with the Bull fair value ($157.95) sitting just above spot (156.38). Treat these as internally computed forecasts. Confidence is capped by the note that the latest annual income-statement period used was 2015-01-31, which is a material lag for a 2026-dated brief; the trailing multiples and growth inputs should be read with that vintage in mind. EV/EBITDA is separately marked Low confidence.

05News and catalyst timeline
DateHeadlineSourceRelevance
2026-07-27The TJX Companies (TJX) Looks Attractive on Market Share Gains and Margin ExpansionYahoo EntertainmentDirectly names TJX; frames a market-share and margin narrative. Company-specific, so most relevant to the thesis
2026-07-27BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP SECOND QUARTER RESULTS... RECORD SMALL SHOP OCCUPANCY...PRNewswireRetail-landlord read-through; strong small-shop occupancy is a peripheral demand signal for off-price retail footprints, not a TJX fact
2026-07-282026 Fortune Global 500... Amazon ends Walmart's 12-year lead...Ithome.comBroad retail-landscape context; no direct TJX data point
2026-07-27The CEO Pay Peak in Fashion and RetailWWDSector governance/cost context; no TJX-specific figure supplied
2026-07-27Yarrow closes VYNE merger, initiates dosing in Phase 2a/2b YB-101 trialThefly.comUnrelated (biotech); included for completeness, no TJX relevance

Confirmed news: five dated headlines are supplied. Only item 3 is TJX-specific. Missing data: no supplied earnings date, no confirmed corporate action, no analyst rating, and no guidance figure. I do not infer any financial detail from headlines beyond the wording provided - the "market share gains and margin expansion" framing is a third-party headline, not a supplied company fact.

06Sentiment radar
SourceStatusReadingConfidence
NewsAPI headline coverage5 headlinesIthome.com x1, PRNewswire x1, Yahoo Entertainment x1Medium
Social sentimentNot connectedNo social sentiment conclusion is drawnLow

No provider-level sentiment score was returned for TJX. Social platforms (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not marked connected, so no reading is generated from them. Headline coverage is thin and skewed toward general-retail context rather than TJX-specific flow, which keeps sentiment confidence at Medium at best.

07Scenario framework
ScenarioTrigger conditionsWhat would confirm itWhat would invalidate it
BasePrice holds the 149.61-156 zone and chops below MA20; RSI14 stays soft near 38; volume stays below the 20-session average (6.33M)Sustained closes between estimated support (145.78) and MA20 (159.39) with contracting volumeA decisive close above MA20 (159.39) or a break below support (145.78)
UpsideRSI14 (38.37) turns up from soft levels, lower-band proximity resolves higher, OBV slope (+13.25%) keeps improvingReclaim of MA20 (159.39) then a push toward MA60 (157.12)/upper-band resistance (172.99), MACD histogram narrowing toward zeroMACD histogram deepening below -1.09; rejection back under MA5 (152.67)
DownsideMA5<MA20 death cross persists; MACD stays below zero with rising negative momentum; KDJ remains depressed (~18)Loss of estimated support 145.78 (lower Bollinger band) on expanding volumeRecovery back above the 30-session midpoint and MA20, plus a positive MACD crossover
08Risk matrix
RiskEvidenceTriggerMonitoring action
Trend-continuation (bear)Bear trend label; MACD -2.07 below zero; MA5Finishing the risk matrix and wrapping up the remaining sections with the information-use note.<MA20 death cross; price -1.89% under MA20Daily close below estimated support 145.78 (lower Bollinger band) on above-average volumeWatch MA20 (159.39) as the reclaim line and 145.78 as the break line; track MACD histogram direction daily
Failed bounceRSI14 38.37 and lower-band proximity favor a bounce, but KDJ (~18) and MACD remain weakRejection at MA5 (152.67) or MA20 (159.39) with a fresh lower lowConfirm any rally with a close above MA20 and a narrowing MACD histogram before treating it as durable
Volatility expansionATR14% +2.66% with Bollinger band width expandingWidening bands plus an ATR uptick that stretches the ~4-point daily rangeSize positions to the ~4.01 ATR; avoid anchoring stops inside a single ATR of noise
Stale-fundamentals riskLatest annual income-statement period used is 2015-01-31; EV/EBITDA marked Low confidenceAny confirmed fresh filing that resets PE (32.11), PB (16.96), or EV/EBITDA (28.9)Treat trailing multiples as provisional; refresh against the next confirmed statement before leaning on valuation
Thin-coverage / sentiment gapOnly 1 of 5 headlines is TJX-specific; social sentiment not connectedA single unverified headline moving price without corroborating flowCross-check any headline-driven move against volume vs the 6.33M average before acting on it
Model-vs-market gapStockKit Base fair value $125.38 implies a -19.8% gap to spot; Bull $157.95 sits near pricePrice drifting toward the base case while momentum stays weakTrack the fair-value gap alongside price; note these are internal scenario outputs, not consensus
09Seven-day watch checklist

1. MA20 reclaim line at 159.39 - daily closes above/below define the near-term trend question. 2. Estimated support at 145.78 (lower Bollinger band) - a close below on expanding volume is the primary downside trigger. 3. MACD histogram (-1.09) direction - narrowing toward zero supports a bounce; deepening confirms continuation. 4. RSI14 (38.37) and RSI6 (33.09) - watch for an upturn from soft levels versus a slide toward washed-out readings. 5. Volume vs the 20-session average (6,335,988) - current activity runs -4.53% below; any surge signals conviction on the next directional move. 6. OBV slope (+13.25%) - continued improvement would validate the accumulation read despite soft price. 7. Fresh TJX-specific news or a confirmed filing - needed to reset the stale 2015-01-31 fundamentals and the trailing multiples that depend on them.

Information-use note This brief is a public-facing research preview built only from the supplied dataset. It is not personalized investment advice and makes no promise of returns. All levels are watch levels for observation, not instructions to transact. Valuation confidence is limited by the stale latest-period reference (2015-01-31) and the Low-confidence EV/EBITDA input; PEG proxy and fair-value ranges are StockKit scenario-model outputs, not analyst consensus. Social sentiment was not connected, so no social reading is drawn. No financial statements, earnings dates, ratings, or company facts beyond the supplied data were created.
Strategy factors
MA交叉Weak
30

MA5<MA20死叉

MACD背离Weak
35

MACD死叉,MACD在零轴下方,动能增强

RSI极值Constructive
60

RSI14=38偏低

布林带Constructive
65

接近下轨,可能反弹,带宽扩张中

量价关系Neutral
55

缩量回调,可能企稳

News & catalyst inputs

2026 年《财富》世界 500 强排行榜揭晓:亚马逊终结沃尔玛 12 年领跑纪录,谷歌母公司全球利润第一

Ithome.com · 2026-07-28

BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP SECOND QUARTER RESULTS DEMONSTRATE CONTINUED OPERATIONAL STRENGTH, WITH RECORD SMALL SHOP OCCUPANCY AND RECORD SIGNED BUT NOT YET COMMENCED RENT; FURTHER INCREASES 2026 OUTLOOK

PRNewswire · 2026-07-27

The TJX Companies (TJX) Looks Attractive on Market Share Gains and Margin Expansion

Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-07-27

Yarrow closes VYNE merger, initiates dosing in Phase 2a/2b YB-101 trial

Thefly.com · 2026-07-27

The CEO Pay Peak in Fashion and Retail

WWD · 2026-07-27

Research boundary

StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.

Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.