TJX
TJX · US
I'm pulling together the market data for the report-price at 156.38 with a modest uptick, volume around 4.3 million shares. The technical indicators show a bearish trend with a Hold signal and RSI sitting at 38.37, suggesting weakness. I need to flag that the valuation metrics are based on older income statement data from early 2015, so I'll note lower confidence there.
Now I'm building out the valuation matrix with the available metrics-PE, PB, EV/EBITDA, and the fair-value range along with market cap. I'll include the supplied rows like price-to-sales and the balance sheet items since they're available in the data.
For the moving averages, the precomputed label says mixed alignment but the actual values show MA5 < MA10 < MA60 < MA20, which doesn't match. I need to report what the numbers actually show rather than rely on the label-price is sitting below both MA20 and MA60, which suggests downward pressure. The score panel flags a death cross between MA5 and MA20, so I'll note that alongside the observable levels.
Now I'm moving into the scenarios section with the support and resistance levels...# TJX Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 156.38 |
| Daily move | +1.40% (H 157.62 / L 155.15) |
| StockKit score | 48/100 (Signal: Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 38.37 / 33.09 (soft, not washed out) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -2.07 / -0.99 / -1.09 (bearish) |
| Estimated support | 145.78 (+6.78% below price) |
| Estimated resistance | 172.99 (+10.62% above price) |
| 30-session range position | +33.20% (range 149.61-170.00) |
| Volume vs 20-session avg | -4.53% (4,309,390 vs 6,335,988) |
| Data confidence | Technicals medium; valuation lower (stale period); social sentiment low |
| Indicator | Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 152.67 / 152.81 / 159.39 / 157.12 | Price (156.38) sits below MA20 (-1.89%) and just below MA60; MA5<MA20 flags a death-cross condition (MA cross sub-score 30/100, Sell) |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 38.37 / 33.09 | Soft but not oversold; RSI-extreme sub-score 60/100 reads RSI14 as low enough to favor a bounce |
| MACD | -2.07 / -0.99 / -1.09 | Bearish, below zero line with strengthening negative momentum (sub-score 35/100, Sell) |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 18.21 / 18.26 / 18.11 | Depressed and clustered; classified as soft or still repairing |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 172.99 / 159.39 / 145.78 | Mid-band zone at ~39% of band; band width expanding (sub-score 65/100, Buy on proximity to lower band) |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 4.01 / +2.66% | Moderate volatility; roughly a 4-point average daily range for stop/scaling math |
| OBV / 20-session slope | 20,034,969.10 / +13.25% | Accumulation improving despite soft price action |
| CCI20 | -82.58 | Inside a neutral band, not yet at an oversold extreme |
Confirmed: trend-following signals agree on softness - MACD below zero, MA20 overhead, KDJ depressed, price under MA20. Volume is contracting on the pullback (-4.53% vs the 20-session average), consistent with a low-conviction fade rather than distribution.
Conflicted: momentum-mean-reversion signals lean the other way. RSI14 (38.37) and lower-band proximity (65/100) argue for a possible bounce, and OBV's +13.25% slope suggests accumulation is building under a weak price. The precomputed "Mixed alignment (MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60)" label does not match the supplied values (MA5 152.67 < MA20 159.39); the observable numbers show MA5I need to continue from where the previous thinking was cut off in section 3, picking up mid-sentence and moving forward naturally with the analysis or reasoning.and MA10 sitting below MA20 and MA60, so I treat the alignment as bearish-to-mixed and defer to the raw readings.
Missing: no custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so none are folded in here. No intraday volume profile or tick-level data was provided, so conclusions rest on end-of-session aggregates.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.11 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 16.96 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 6.07 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.9 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | 1.98 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $97.65 / Base $125.38 / Bull $157.95 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -19.8% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +16.24% / Bull +22.24% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $29.08B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $5.49B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $176.40B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $36.16B / Equity $10.40B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
The PEG proxy (1.98) and fair-value range are StockKit scenario outputs computed from reported fundamentals, not analyst consensus targets. The Base fair-value gap of -19.8% implies price currently sits above the model's base case, with the Bull fair value ($157.95) sitting just above spot (156.38). Treat these as internally computed forecasts. Confidence is capped by the note that the latest annual income-statement period used was 2015-01-31, which is a material lag for a 2026-dated brief; the trailing multiples and growth inputs should be read with that vintage in mind. EV/EBITDA is separately marked Low confidence.
| Date | Headline | Source | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | The TJX Companies (TJX) Looks Attractive on Market Share Gains and Margin Expansion | Yahoo Entertainment | Directly names TJX; frames a market-share and margin narrative. Company-specific, so most relevant to the thesis |
| 2026-07-27 | BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP SECOND QUARTER RESULTS... RECORD SMALL SHOP OCCUPANCY... | PRNewswire | Retail-landlord read-through; strong small-shop occupancy is a peripheral demand signal for off-price retail footprints, not a TJX fact |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026 Fortune Global 500... Amazon ends Walmart's 12-year lead... | Ithome.com | Broad retail-landscape context; no direct TJX data point |
| 2026-07-27 | The CEO Pay Peak in Fashion and Retail | WWD | Sector governance/cost context; no TJX-specific figure supplied |
| 2026-07-27 | Yarrow closes VYNE merger, initiates dosing in Phase 2a/2b YB-101 trial | Thefly.com | Unrelated (biotech); included for completeness, no TJX relevance |
Confirmed news: five dated headlines are supplied. Only item 3 is TJX-specific. Missing data: no supplied earnings date, no confirmed corporate action, no analyst rating, and no guidance figure. I do not infer any financial detail from headlines beyond the wording provided - the "market share gains and margin expansion" framing is a third-party headline, not a supplied company fact.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | 5 headlines | Ithome.com x1, PRNewswire x1, Yahoo Entertainment x1 | Medium |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider-level sentiment score was returned for TJX. Social platforms (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not marked connected, so no reading is generated from them. Headline coverage is thin and skewed toward general-retail context rather than TJX-specific flow, which keeps sentiment confidence at Medium at best.
| Scenario | Trigger conditions | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the 149.61-156 zone and chops below MA20; RSI14 stays soft near 38; volume stays below the 20-session average (6.33M) | Sustained closes between estimated support (145.78) and MA20 (159.39) with contracting volume | A decisive close above MA20 (159.39) or a break below support (145.78) |
| Upside | RSI14 (38.37) turns up from soft levels, lower-band proximity resolves higher, OBV slope (+13.25%) keeps improving | Reclaim of MA20 (159.39) then a push toward MA60 (157.12)/upper-band resistance (172.99), MACD histogram narrowing toward zero | MACD histogram deepening below -1.09; rejection back under MA5 (152.67) |
| Downside | MA5<MA20 death cross persists; MACD stays below zero with rising negative momentum; KDJ remains depressed (~18) | Loss of estimated support 145.78 (lower Bollinger band) on expanding volume | Recovery back above the 30-session midpoint and MA20, plus a positive MACD crossover |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend-continuation (bear) | Bear trend label; MACD -2.07 below zero; MA5Finishing the risk matrix and wrapping up the remaining sections with the information-use note.<MA20 death cross; price -1.89% under MA20 | Daily close below estimated support 145.78 (lower Bollinger band) on above-average volume | Watch MA20 (159.39) as the reclaim line and 145.78 as the break line; track MACD histogram direction daily |
| Failed bounce | RSI14 38.37 and lower-band proximity favor a bounce, but KDJ (~18) and MACD remain weak | Rejection at MA5 (152.67) or MA20 (159.39) with a fresh lower low | Confirm any rally with a close above MA20 and a narrowing MACD histogram before treating it as durable |
| Volatility expansion | ATR14% +2.66% with Bollinger band width expanding | Widening bands plus an ATR uptick that stretches the ~4-point daily range | Size positions to the ~4.01 ATR; avoid anchoring stops inside a single ATR of noise |
| Stale-fundamentals risk | Latest annual income-statement period used is 2015-01-31; EV/EBITDA marked Low confidence | Any confirmed fresh filing that resets PE (32.11), PB (16.96), or EV/EBITDA (28.9) | Treat trailing multiples as provisional; refresh against the next confirmed statement before leaning on valuation |
| Thin-coverage / sentiment gap | Only 1 of 5 headlines is TJX-specific; social sentiment not connected | A single unverified headline moving price without corroborating flow | Cross-check any headline-driven move against volume vs the 6.33M average before acting on it |
| Model-vs-market gap | StockKit Base fair value $125.38 implies a -19.8% gap to spot; Bull $157.95 sits near price | Price drifting toward the base case while momentum stays weak | Track the fair-value gap alongside price; note these are internal scenario outputs, not consensus |
1. MA20 reclaim line at 159.39 - daily closes above/below define the near-term trend question. 2. Estimated support at 145.78 (lower Bollinger band) - a close below on expanding volume is the primary downside trigger. 3. MACD histogram (-1.09) direction - narrowing toward zero supports a bounce; deepening confirms continuation. 4. RSI14 (38.37) and RSI6 (33.09) - watch for an upturn from soft levels versus a slide toward washed-out readings. 5. Volume vs the 20-session average (6,335,988) - current activity runs -4.53% below; any surge signals conviction on the next directional move. 6. OBV slope (+13.25%) - continued improvement would validate the accumulation read despite soft price. 7. Fresh TJX-specific news or a confirmed filing - needed to reset the stale 2015-01-31 fundamentals and the trailing multiples that depend on them.
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD死叉,MACD在零轴下方,动能增强
RSI14=38偏低
接近下轨,可能反弹,带宽扩张中
缩量回调,可能企稳
2026 年《财富》世界 500 强排行榜揭晓:亚马逊终结沃尔玛 12 年领跑纪录,谷歌母公司全球利润第一
Ithome.com · 2026-07-28
BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP SECOND QUARTER RESULTS DEMONSTRATE CONTINUED OPERATIONAL STRENGTH, WITH RECORD SMALL SHOP OCCUPANCY AND RECORD SIGNED BUT NOT YET COMMENCED RENT; FURTHER INCREASES 2026 OUTLOOK
PRNewswire · 2026-07-27
The TJX Companies (TJX) Looks Attractive on Market Share Gains and Margin Expansion
Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-07-27
Yarrow closes VYNE merger, initiates dosing in Phase 2a/2b YB-101 trial
Thefly.com · 2026-07-27
The CEO Pay Peak in Fashion and Retail
WWD · 2026-07-27
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