北京银行
601169 · CN
601169 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 5.01 |
| Daily move | -2.53% |
| Strategy score | 56/100 (Hold) |
| Trend label | bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 35.92 / 26.56 |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | -0.03 / -0.03 / 0.00 |
| Estimated support | 5.00 (+0.24% away) |
| Estimated resistance | 5.26 (+5.01% away) |
| 30-session range | 4.98-5.29 |
| Range position | +9.68% (lower third) |
| Data confidence | Medium (technicals complete; news/sentiment absent) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 5.17 / 5.16 / 5.13 / 5.29 | Short MAs stacked (MA5>MA10>MA20) but MA60 sits above all; price 5.01 is below every MA (-2.33% vs MA20). Mixed alignment. |
| RSI (14 / 6) | 35.92 / 26.56 | Soft, not washed out. RSI6 deeper than RSI14 confirms near-term selling momentum. |
| MACD | -0.03 / -0.03 / 0.00 | Lines converged with a flat histogram below the zero axis. Engine flags a fresh cross but momentum is weak. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 42.48 / 62.15 / 3.14 | J at 3.14 is deeply depressed while K sits below D, consistent with a soft/repairing condition rather than a clean turn. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 5.26 / 5.13 / 5.00 | Price at the lower band (~5% of band width), the classic mean-reversion watch zone; band is reported as expanding. |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 0.08 / +1.55% | Low absolute volatility; roughly one ATR (0.08) separates price from resistance. |
| OBV / 20-sess slope | -875,453,032 / -300.93% | Strongly negative slope; distribution pressure is the clearest signal in the panel. |
| CCI20 | -115.94 | Below -100, indicating downside pressure / oversold territory. |
What is confirmed: downside pressure and distribution are corroborated across RSI, CCI, OBV, and the daily price-down-on-volume reading. Position near the lower Bollinger band and just above the 5.00 support is unambiguous.
What is conflicted: the bull trend label and "bullish MACD configuration" sit against a price trading below all moving averages, a deeply negative OBV slope, and a Sell-rated volume-price signal. The short-MA golden cross (MA5>MA20) is not confirmed by price, which remains under MA20. Treat the bounce case as contingent, not in motion.
What is missing: no custom indicators were supplied, so nothing is folded in here. No intraday volume profile beyond the single 1.6x-average reading.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.42 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 0.37 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 7.17 / Base CNY 8.59 / Bull CNY 11.18 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +71.4% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 68.04B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 20.09B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.78 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 13.4 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +41.45% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
Notes on use: PE of 6.42 and PB of 0.37 reflect a deep-discount profile typical of the listed Chinese bank cohort. The StockKit fair-value range (Bear 7.17 / Base 8.59 / Bull 11.18) and the +71.4% base gap are internally computed DCF scenario outputs, not analyst consensus targets, and should be weighed against a modeled 5Y growth forecast that is negative in the Bear and Base cases (-8.00% / -4.00%) and only marginally positive in the Bull case (+2.00%). PEG proxy, EV/EBITDA, market cap, dividend yield, gross margin, and 52-week range were not supplied or returned N/A and are omitted.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Headline coverage | No current news items from the configured source | Without confirmed headlines, no event-driven catalyst can be timed or validated; price action is the only confirmed driver. |
Confirmed news: none available. No earnings dates, regulatory items, or corporate actions were supplied, so none are asserted. The income figures reference an AkShare report period of 2025-12-31 but no associated announcement event is confirmed in the feed. This section is low confidence by data absence.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are inferred because no source is marked connected. Sentiment is therefore non-contributory to the current view.
| Scenario | Trigger conditions | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the 5.00 support shelf; RSI stabilizes around the mid-30s; volume normalizes back toward the 20-session average | Sideways-to-firmer action above 5.00 with OBV slope flattening | Sustained closes below 5.00 / 4.98 on elevated volume |
| Upside | Lower-band rebound engages; price reclaims MA20 (5.13) | Move toward resistance 5.26 with MACD histogram turning positive and KDJ J lifting off its 3.14 low | Failure to clear 5.13 and rejection back toward 5.00 |
| Downside | Distribution continues (OBV slope -300.93%) and price-down-on-volume persists | Break of 5.00 support and the 4.98 range floor, opening lower discovery | Reclaim of 5.00 with declining volume and RSI6 recovery from 26.56 |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active distribution | OBV slope -300.93%; daily price-down-on-volume at 1.6x average; volume-price signal Sell (35/100) | Continued declines on above-average volume | Watch OBV slope and daily volume vs the 115.6M 20-session average |
| Support failure | Price 5.01 only +0.24% above 5.00 estimated support and lower band | Close below 5.00 / 4.98 | Track the 5.00 shelf and 30-session floor on a closing basis |
| Signal conflict | Bull trend label and golden cross vs price below all MAs and weak MACD below zero | Bounce thesis fails to engage near the band | Confirm with price reclaiming MA20 (5.13) before trusting the bull tag |
| Weak earnings trajectory | StockKit 5Y growth forecast Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% | Downward revisions to the modeled growth path | Re-check fundamentals against the +41.45% net margin and EPS 0.78 baseline |
| Information gaps | No news and no sentiment data returned | A material headline arriving outside the feed | Re-run news/sentiment sources before acting on any move |
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=36偏低
接近下轨，可能反弹，带宽扩张中
价跌放量(1.6x)，抛压沉重
Research boundary
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