中国中铁
601390 · CN
601390 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 4.52 |
| Daily move | -2.38% |
| Overall score | 57/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 50.55 / 44.16 |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | 0.04 / 0.02 / 0.02 |
| Support (est.) | CNY 4.19 |
| Resistance (est.) | CNY 4.75 |
| 30-session range position | +68.42% (range 4.13-4.70) |
| Data confidence | Moderate (technicals complete; news/sentiment absent) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 4.61 / 4.58 / 4.47 / 4.57 | Short-term MAs above MA20 (golden-cross structure), but MA60 at 4.57 sits above MA20, so alignment is mixed rather than fully stacked. Price is +1.06% over MA20. |
| RSI (14 / 6) | 50.55 / 44.16 | Neutral momentum; RSI14 at the midline with the faster RSI6 slightly softer, indicating no strong directional push. |
| MACD | 0.04 / 0.02 / 0.02 | Bullish configuration: line above signal and above the zero axis, positive histogram. Context flag notes momentum is weakening. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 56.12 / 71.97 / 24.41 | Soft / still repairing. The low J (24.41) versus higher D (71.97) points to an unsettled, corrective posture. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 4.75 / 4.47 / 4.19 | Mid-band zone (59% of band), bandwidth expanding. Price sits between the middle (4.47) and upper (4.75) rails. |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 0.10 / +2.23% | Moderate volatility; roughly a 2.2% average true range per session relative to price. |
| OBV (level / 20-session slope) | -2,689,575,373 / +12.05% | Accumulation improving: the OBV level is negative, but its 20-session slope is positive, suggesting recent net inflow momentum. |
| CCI20 | 49.40 | Inside a neutral band; no overbought/oversold extreme. |
Confirmed: The trend-following block leans constructive - MA golden-cross structure, MACD above zero, and a rising OBV slope all point the same direction.
Conflicted: Momentum oscillators diverge from trend. RSI and CCI are neutral, KDJ is soft/repairing, and MACD momentum is flagged as weakening even while its configuration stays bullish. Most notably, today's -2.38% move on +19.09% above-average volume is a bearish volume-price signal that cuts against the improving OBV read.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so none are folded in here.
Rows sourced from the StockKit DCF/scenario model are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.33 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 0.35 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 7.79 / Base CNY 9.34 / Bull CNY 12.15 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +106.6% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 1.09T | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 22.89B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.85 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 13.02 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +7.93% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +2.09% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
The reported PE of 5.33 and PB of 0.35 sit at low absolute levels. Worth flagging an internal tension: the model's base fair value (CNY 9.34) implies a +106.6% gap to the CNY 4.52 price, yet the same model's 5Y growth forecast is negative in the base case (-4.00%). That combination warrants caution - the fair-value range is a scenario output computed from public financial history, not a target endorsed by analyst consensus, and it should be weighed against the thin, low-margin profile (net margin +2.09%) rather than read as a directional call.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Configured news source | No current news items were available |
Confirmed news: None. No headlines were returned from the configured source at the time of this brief.
Missing data: The entire event/catalyst layer is unavailable, so no earnings dates, corporate actions, or headline catalysts can be assessed. Confidence on any event-driven view is low. This is a material gap - a stock trading on a bearish volume-price session with no visible catalyst context should be monitored primarily through price and volume behavior until news coverage is restored.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are available because those sources are not marked connected. The sentiment layer therefore contributes no signal to this brief, and any interpretation here would be unsupported.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the CNY 4.47 MA20 / Bollinger mid-band; score stays near 57 (Hold) | Stabilization above 4.47 with RSI14 holding ~50 and OBV slope staying positive (+12.05%) | Sustained close below 4.47 that flips the MA structure, or OBV slope rolling over |
| Upside | Reclaim and hold above MA5 (4.61) with a push toward resistance CNY 4.75 (Bollinger upper) | Volume expansion on up-days rather than down-days, MACD histogram re-expanding, RSI14 pushing above the midline | Failure at 4.75 / rejection at the upper band, or continued price-down-on-volume behavior |
| Downside | Loss of MA20 (4.47) and a move toward support CNY 4.19 (Bollinger lower) | Continuation of today's bearish volume-price pattern (price down on +19.09% above-average volume), KDJ staying soft | Reclaim of 4.47 with positive follow-through, or OBV accumulation resuming |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume-price divergence | Volume-price sub-score 35/100 (Sell); price -2.38% on +19.09% above-average volume | Further down-sessions on rising volume | Track daily volume vs the 20-session average (124,788,110) against price direction |
| Momentum stall | MACD flagged as momentum weakening; KDJ soft (J 24.41); RSI14 neutral at 50.55 | MACD histogram compressing toward zero | Watch MACD line/signal spread and RSI14 relative to the midline |
| Mid-band whipsaw | Price at 59% of an expanding Bollinger band; ATR14% +2.23% | Widening bands with directionless price around 4.47 | Watch Bollinger bandwidth and whether closes cluster near the mid-band |
| Valuation model tension | Base fair-value gap +106.6% paired with a negative base 5Y growth forecast (-4.00%) | Reliance on the model figure without fundamental corroboration | Treat fair value as a scenario output; reassess if new financial data changes the growth path |
| Information gap | No news and no sentiment coverage available | A catalyst emerging without prior visibility | Re-check the news/sentiment feeds before drawing event-driven conclusions |
1. MA20 / mid-band CNY 4.47 - daily closes above or below this cluster (highest priority). 2. Volume vs the 20-session average (124,788,110) relative to price direction - is selling pressure persisting? 3. Resistance CNY 4.75 (Bollinger upper) - any test and whether it holds. 4. Support CNY 4.19 (Bollinger lower) - proximity if 4.47 fails. 5. OBV 20-session slope (+12.05%) - does the accumulation trend hold or roll over? 6. MACD histogram (0.02) and RSI14 (50.55) - signs of momentum re-expanding or fading. 7. Restoration of news and sentiment feeds - any headline that changes the currently blank catalyst picture.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI14=51中性
在通道中部，带宽扩张中
价跌放量(1.2x)，抛压沉重
Research boundary
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