ADBE
ADBE · US
ADBE Research Preview
| Metric | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 195.16 | Below all supplied MAs |
| Daily move | -0.57% | Day range 190.12-196.78 |
| Strategy score | 60/100 (Buy) | Conflicts with price location |
| Trend | Consolidation | Engine label; price sits below range |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 47.80 / 43.43 | Neutral momentum |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | 0.21 / 0.19 / 0.01 | Above zero, histogram thin |
| Support (est.) | 234.97 | Now ~20.4% above spot |
| Resistance (est.) | 260.30 | ~33.4% above spot |
| 30-session range position | -81.21% | Below the 226.50 floor |
| Data confidence | Medium-low | No news/sentiment; price-vs-MA conflict |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 250.57 / 246.05 / 247.64 / 249.64 | Stack is bullish-aligned, but spot (195.16) is ~21.2% below MA20. Confirmed: tight MA cluster. Conflict: price detached well below the cluster. |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 47.80 / 43.43 | Neutral; RSI6 < RSI14 shows fading short-term momentum. No oversold extreme yet despite the price location. |
| MACD | 0.21 / 0.19 / 0.01 | Line above signal and above zero, but histogram of 0.01 signals momentum is near-flat. "Bullish configuration" is technically true but barely. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 48.66 / 52.63 / 40.74 | K < D with a low J line; soft/repairing. No clean bullish cross. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 260.30 / 247.64 / 234.97 | Spot is below the lower band (band position ~-157%). Confirmed: stretched to the downside relative to the stated band. |
| ATR14 / % | 9.32 / +3.81% | Roughly 3.8% daily true range - meaningful intraday swing budget. |
| OBV / 20-sess slope | -22,538,278.64 / +38.24% | OBV level is negative but its 20-session slope is improving - tentative accumulation, not confirmation. |
| CCI20 | -18.28 | Inside the neutral band; no trend extreme. |
Confirmed: neutral momentum (RSI, CCI), a positive-but-weak OBV slope, and a thin bullish MACD. Conflicted: the MA stack and band geometry imply price near 234-250, while spot is 195.16 - the largest unresolved tension in this brief. Missing: no custom indicators were supplied, so this panel is limited to the standard set.
Rows marked StockKit scenario model are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.69 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 7.24 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 3.51 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.52 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | 0.81 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $314.12 / Base $400.52 / Bull $505.91 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +105.2% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +8.45% / Base +14.45% / Bull +20.45% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $23.77B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $7.13B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $83.33B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $29.93B / Equity $11.52B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
Context: PE of 11.69 and EV/EBITDA of 8.52 are low for a company posting $7.13B net income on $23.77B revenue. The StockKit DCF implies a wide base gap (+105.2%), which is large enough that the model's growth and discount assumptions deserve scrutiny rather than acceptance - and it is a model output, not consensus. EV/EBITDA carries Low confidence, so lean on PE and the High-confidence income/balance items.
| Status | Item |
|---|---|
| Confirmed | None. No current news items were available from the configured source. |
| Missing | Earnings date, product/AI announcements, guidance updates, analyst actions, and any explanation for the apparent price drop below structure. |
Why this matters: with no headline coverage, there is no documented catalyst for the gap between spot (195.16) and the supplied technical references. The brief cannot attribute the breakdown to any confirmed event, which lowers confidence in any directional call.
Sentiment readings are limited to the supplied table. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or forum data is included because no such source is marked connected.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned. The sentiment layer is effectively blank - treat any momentum read as price-only.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What confirms it | What invalidates it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price stabilizes and builds a base below the broken support; OBV 20-session slope stays positive (+38.24%) | Daily closes holding above the 226.50 30-session floor; MACD histogram (0.01) turning consistently positive | A daily close back below the recent 190.12 day low with rising volume |
| Upside | Reclaim of 226.50 then 234.97 support, pulling spot back toward the MA cluster (~247.64); valuation gap (PE 11.69, base fair-value gap +105.2%) draws buyers | Price re-enters the Bollinger channel and RSI14 pushes above 50 from 47.80 | Failure at 234.97 turning prior support into confirmed resistance |
| Downside | Continued detachment below structure; price stays under the lower band (234.97) and below the 30-session range | New lows under 190.12; RSI6 (43.43) leading further weakness; OBV slope rolling over | Sustained reclaim of 226.50 with the histogram expanding positive |
All three hinge on the same unresolved question: does spot rejoin the supplied MA/band structure, or has that structure gone stale relative to a real decline?
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data conflict risk | Spot 195.16 sits ~21.2% below MA20 (247.64) and below the 30-session floor (226.50) | Strategy Buy/consolidation tag contradicts price location | Re-validate the feed; do not act on the bullish label until MAs and spot reconcile |
| Volatility risk | ATR14 +3.81% of price | A single ATR day spans ~9.3 points | Size expectations around ~3.8% daily swings |
| Momentum-fade risk | MACD histogram 0.01; RSI6 43.43 < RSI14 47.80 | Histogram flips negative | Watch for the MACD line crossing back below signal |
| Information void | No news, no sentiment coverage | Unexplained move with no catalyst on record | Treat directional calls as low-corroboration until headlines appear |
| Volume confirmation risk | Volume -16.40% vs 20-session average; score notes 价涨量缩 | Moves on shrinking volume | Require volume expansion to trust any reclaim |
1. Whether ADBE reclaims the 226.50 30-session floor on a daily close - the single most important level here. 2. The spot-vs-MA gap: confirm whether the MA cluster (247.64 MA20) updates down toward price or price recovers toward it. 3. MACD histogram (currently 0.01) - expanding positive or flipping negative. 4. RSI14 cross of 50 (now 47.80) and whether RSI6 (43.43) leads up or down. 5. OBV 20-session slope - does the +38.24% improvement hold or roll over. 6. Volume relative to the 20-session average (currently -16.40%) on any directional day. 7. Appearance of any news or sentiment coverage that would explain the breakdown below structure.
This brief is a public-facing research preview, not personalized investment advice, and contains no return promises. Fundamentals are sourced from SEC EDGAR companyfacts (income and balance-sheet items High confidence); PEG, fair-value range, and growth forecasts are StockKit DCF/scenario model outputs, not analyst consensus. The principal limitation is an internal conflict between the live price (195.16) and the supplied moving-average, Bollinger, support, and range references, which all sit materially higher - readers should resolve that data discrepancy before relying on the momentum tags. News and sentiment layers returned no coverage, so all directional framing rests on price and indicator data alone. Levels are watch levels, not instructions.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI14=48中性
在通道中部
价涨量缩，上涨力度不足
Research boundary
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