Coinbase Global, Inc.
COIN · US
COIN Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | $163.26 |
| Daily move | -1.00% |
| Strategy score | 45/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 39.30 / 25.67 |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | -2.56 / 0.68 / -3.23 |
| Estimated support | $173.95 |
| Estimated resistance | $215.41 |
| 30-session range position | -21.48% (range $173.71 / $222.35) |
| Data confidence | Medium (price/technical solid; news & sentiment thin) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 184.73 / 191.58 / 194.68 / 191.50 | Price below all MAs; MA5<MA20 death cross. Precomputed note flags mixed alignment. Bearish structure. |
| RSI (14/6) | 39.30 / 25.67 | Soft but not washed out on RSI14; RSI6 deeper. Strategy scores this 60/100 Buy (RSI14 low). |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -2.56 / 0.68 / -3.23 | Death cross, line below zero, negative histogram. Bearish configuration, weakening momentum. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 9.66 / 21.18 / -13.37 | Washed-out readings; J deeply negative. Rebound-watch condition. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 215.41 / 194.68 / 173.95 | Near/below lower band (-26% of band), bandwidth expanding. Short-term oversold per strategy (70/100 Buy). |
| ATR14 / ATR% | 13.50 / +7.77% | Elevated volatility; ~7.77% of price implies wide daily swings to budget for. |
| OBV / 20-sess slope | -161,564,393.56 / -10.98% | Distribution pressure visible; declining slope signals net outflow. |
| CCI20 | -171.65 | Below -100; confirms downside pressure / oversold. |
Confirmed: The bearish trend is corroborated by MA structure, MACD, OBV, and CCI all pointing the same direction.
Conflicted: Momentum oscillators (RSI14, KDJ, Bollinger lower-band break) flag short-term oversold and a possible rebound, which conflicts with the trend-following signals (MA cross, MACD). The strategy score reflects this tension by splitting into Sell components (MA, MACD) and Buy components (RSI, Bollinger), netting to Hold.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so none are folded in here. Volume context shows current volume -15.92% versus the 20-session average (9,748,926), consistent with the strategy's "缩量回调" (low-volume pullback, possible stabilization) read at 55/100 Hold.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 37.2 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 3.48 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 6.53 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.03 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| StockKit fair value range (scenario model) | Bear $40.31 / Base $48.32 / Bull $62.89 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap (scenario model) | -70.4% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast (scenario model) | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $7.18B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $1.26B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $46.89B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $28.85B / Equity $13.48B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
The PEG proxy row is omitted (N/A in the supplied data). The StockKit fair-value range (Bear $40.31 / Base $48.32 / Bull $62.89) and the -70.4% base fair-value gap are internally computed DCF scenario outputs, not analyst consensus targets. These are driven by a negative-to-flat 5Y growth forecast (Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00%) and should be read as model assumptions rather than facts; the gap is large enough that it warrants treating the model's growth inputs as the key sensitivity. Reported fundamentals (Revenue $7.18B, Net income $1.26B, Equity $13.48B, latest period 2025-12-31) carry the highest confidence in this matrix.
Confirmed COIN-specific news: None. The five supplied headlines (dated 2026-06-20) do not contain any company-specific catalyst for Coinbase Global, Inc.
| Headline | Source | Why it matters here |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil beats Haiti 3-0; meme token barely moves | Crypto Briefing | Crypto-adjacent only; references a token, not COIN. No direct read-through to the stock. |
| Ni la Coupe du monde, ni le G7... | Le Dauphiné Libéré | Non-financial, non-COIN. No relevance. |
| The Best-Paying Jobs in Ancient Rome | Freerepublic.com | Non-financial. No relevance. |
| YC Spring Demo Day focuses on stablecoin funding | Yahoo Entertainment | Stablecoin-themed; tangential macro-crypto context only, no direct COIN catalyst. |
| Ancient artifacts under Notre Dame | Freerepublic.com | Non-financial. No relevance. |
Catalyst confidence is low for this section. No earnings date, regulatory event, or company announcement was supplied, so no forward catalyst timeline can be constructed without inventing facts.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | 5 headlines | Freerepublic.com x2, Crypto Briefing x1, Le Dauphiné Libéré x1 | Medium |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider-level sentiment score was supplied for COIN. Headline coverage is sparse and largely off-topic, so it does not support a directional sentiment read. Social sentiment is not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or forum reading is inferred. Treat this section as low information value for the current setup.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Low-volume pullback stabilizes near lower band; price oscillates below MA20 ($194.68) | Volume staying near/below 20-session average (-15.92% currently) with price holding the $173.71 30-session floor; KDJ/RSI basing | A decisive break below $160.54 day low on rising volume, or a sharp reclaim of MA20 |
| Upside | Oversold mean-reversion from KDJ (J = -13.37) and Bollinger lower-band break | Reclaim of estimated support $173.95, then progress toward resistance $215.41 (+31.94% away), with MACD histogram narrowing from -3.23 | RSI14 rolling back under prior lows; OBV slope (-10.98%) steepening further |
| Downside | Bear trend extends; distribution pressure persists (OBV negative slope) | Loss of $173.71 30-session low with expanding ATR (currently 7.77% of price) and MACD line falling further below zero | Reclaim and hold above lower band $173.95 with improving volume |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation lower | Bear trend; MA5<MA20 death cross; price -16.14% vs MA20 | Daily close below $173.71 30-session low | Watch the 30-session floor and MA20 reclaim |
| Distribution / outflow | OBV -161.56M, 20-session slope -10.98% | OBV slope steepening alongside price decline | Track OBV slope vs price each session |
| Elevated volatility | ATR14 = 13.50 (7.77% of price) | Widening daily range, expanding Bollinger bandwidth | Size positions to ATR; watch band width |
| Valuation gap to model | StockKit base fair value $48.32, gap -70.4%, 5Y growth Bear/Base/Bull -8/-4/+2% | Confirmation of negative growth trajectory | Treat DCF growth inputs as key sensitivity; revisit on new fundamentals |
| Thin catalyst/sentiment data | No COIN-specific news; social sentiment not connected | A real catalyst emerging unpriced by this brief | Re-run with connected news/sentiment feeds before acting on this section |
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=39偏低
跌破下轨，短期超卖，带宽扩张中
缩量回调，可能企稳
Brazil beats Haiti 3-0 as Matheus Cunha scores twice, but his meme token barely moves
Crypto Briefing · 2026-06-20
Billet. Ni la Coupe du monde, ni le G7 : c'est ça, le vrai sujet de la semaine
Le Dauphiné Libéré · 2026-06-20
The Best-Paying Jobs in Ancient Rome [6:41]
Freerepublic.com · 2026-06-20
YC 春季 Demo Day 聚焦穩定幣融資 AI新創巨額募資顯現技術趨勢
Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-06-20
Archaeologists Discover Mysteriously Marked Ancient Artifacts Under Notre Dame Cathedral in \'Dig of the Century\'
Freerepublic.com · 2026-06-20
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