StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
LRCX · US · Cached
Generated 2026-08-04 05:49 UTC

LRCX

LRCX · US

$291.61
-4.46%
Technical posture
Neutral
Strategy score
48 / 100
Trend
bear
Data confidence
High
Research view

LRCX Research Preview

1. Bottom line - Current setup: LRCX trades at 291.61 after a -4.46% session, sitting below every listed moving average (MA5 342.60, MA10 367.90, MA20 374.36, MA60 318.04), below estimated support (321.57), and below the 30-session range low (302.74). The strategy engine reads Hold at 48/100 with a bear trend label. - Confidence: Medium overall. Price and technical inputs are complete, but note an internal inconsistency (see Section 3): the supplied MA structure label ("MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60") does not match the supplied MA values, which descend MA5 < MA10 < MA20. Valuation carries a large model-vs-price gap, EV/EBITDA is flagged Low confidence, and social sentiment is not connected. - Most important condition to monitor: whether price can reclaim the 321.57 zone (estimated support and Bollinger lower band coincide here). Holding above it would argue for stabilization; continued acceptance below the 302.74 range low keeps the tape defensive, with the 278.45 session low as the next observable watch level.
02Key data snapshot
MetricReading
Price291.61
Daily move-4.46%
Day high / low309.50 / 278.45
Overall score48/100 (Hold)
TrendBear
RSI14 / RSI649.05 / 44.61 (neutral)
MACD line / signal / hist4.96 / 13.44 / -8.48 (bearish config)
Estimated support321.57 (price is -10.28% below)
Estimated resistance427.15 (price is +46.48% below)
30-session range302.74-438.50
Position in 30-session range-8.20% (below range low)
Volume vs 20-session avg-52.05%
Data confidenceMedium
03Technical indicator panel
IndicatorReadingRead
MAMA5 342.60 / MA10 367.90 / MA20 374.36 / MA60 318.04Price 291.61 below all; MAs descend short-to-mid (MA5 < MA10 < MA20). Score note: MA5 < MA20 death cross, 30/100 Sell.
RSIRSI14 49.05 / RSI6 44.61Neutral momentum; no oversold signal yet. 50/100 Hold.
MACDLine 4.96 / signal 13.44 / hist -8.48Bearish configuration: line below signal (death cross) though still above zero. 55/100 Hold.
KDJK 27.09 / D 31.24 / J 18.80Soft / still repairing in the lower half; no confirmed turn.
BollingerUpper 427.15 / mid 374.36 / lower 321.57Price below the lower band (-28% of band per context); stretched to the downside. 50/100 Hold.
ATRATR14 30.91 / 8.82% of priceElevated volatility; wide daily ranges expected.
OBV100,460,786.57 / +79.02% 20-session slopeAccumulation trend improving despite price weakness.
CCICCI20-86.91Inside a neutral band, near the -100 lower edge.

Confirmed: The bearish structure is consistent across MACD (death cross, negative histogram -8.48), price below all MAs, and price below the Bollinger lower band. Volume is contracting (-52.05% vs 20-session average), which the engine reads as a possible stabilization signal (量-price relationship 55/100).

Conflicted: OBV slope is strongly positive (+79.02%), pointing to accumulation, while price sits below support and the 30-session range low. RSI (49) and CCI (-86.91) are neutral rather than oversold, so momentum offers no clean directional confirmation. Most notably, the supplied precomputed MA-structure label contradicts the supplied MA values; this brief relies on the numeric values (descending MA5 < MA10 < MA20), and readers should treat the text label as lower confidence.

Missing: No custom or proprietary indicators beyond the standard panel were supplied, so none are folded in here.

04Valuation matrix
AxisReadingSourceConfidence
PE70.21SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
PB35.54SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
Price / sales20.41SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
EV/EBITDA59.79SEC EDGAR companyfactsLow
PEG proxy13.56StockKit scenario model (internal)Medium
StockKit fair value rangeBear $52.65 / Base $68.15 / Bull $87.36StockKit DCF scenario model (internal)Medium
Base fair-value gap-76.6%StockKit DCF scenario model (internal)Medium
5Y growth forecastBear -0.82% / Base +5.18% / Bull +11.18%StockKit scenario model (internal)Medium
Revenue$18.44BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh
Net income$5.36BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh
Market cap$376.22BSEC shares outstanding + live quoteMedium
Balance sheet contextAssets $20.79B / Equity $10.58BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh

Reported fundamentals (Revenue $18.44B, Net income $5.36B, period ending 2025-06-29) are High confidence and market-cap sits at $376.22B. Trailing multiples are rich on the supplied data (PE 70.21, PB 35.54, P/S 20.41, EV/EBITDA 59.79). The rows marked StockKit scenario model - PEG proxy, fair-value range, base gap, and 5Y growth forecast - are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. The DCF base fair value ($68.15) implies a -76.6% gap to the current price; given that the scenario range sits far below observed multiples and market cap, this output should be treated with heightened caution and read as a model artifact rather than a price target. No dividend yield or explicit 52-week range field was supplied, so those rows are omitted.

05News and catalyst timeline
DateHeadlineSourceWhy it matters
2026-08-02What a $10,000 Investment in Lam Research 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth TodayBiztoc.comRetrospective/performance framing on LRCX specifically; attention item, not a fundamental catalyst.
2026-07-31S&P 500 ends with its first July decline since 2014MarketWatchBroad-market context; a weak tape backdrop is consistent with the -4.46% session.
2026-07-31Chips Lead Nasdaq's Fierce Rebound, But Meta BashedBiztoc.comSemiconductor sector flow reference relevant to LRCX as a chip-equipment name.
2026-07-30Stocks Settle Sharply Higher as Microsoft Leads a Surge in Tech StocksBarchart.comTech-tape strength context.
2026-07-30Stocks Rally on Stellar Microsoft Earnings and Chip Stock StrengthBarchart.comChip-strength context tied to a mega-cap earnings driver.

Confirmed news: The five headlines above. Four are market/sector-level; one is LRCX-specific but retrospective. None contains a supplied company-specific fundamental event.

Missing data: No confirmed earnings date, guidance update, analyst rating action, or corporate event was supplied. Those catalysts are therefore treated as unknown and are not inferred here.

06Sentiment radar
SourceStatusReadingConfidence
NewsAPI headline coverage5 headlinesBiztoc.com x2, Barchart.com x2, MarketWatch x1Medium
Social sentimentNot connectedNo social sentiment conclusion is drawnLow

Headline coverage is present but no provider-level sentiment score was supplied, so tone is not quantified. Social channels (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not connected in the supplied data, so no social reading is generated.

07Scenario framework
ScenarioTrigger conditionWhat would confirm itWhat would invalidate it
BasePrice consolidates around the 291-302 zone after the -4.46% drop; volume stays contracted (-52.05% vs average)RSI holds near neutral (49), MACD histogram (-8.48) begins narrowing, OBV stays firm (+79.02% slope)Sustained close below the 278.45 session low, or histogram widening further
UpsideReclaim of 302.74 (30-session low) then 321.57 (support / Bollinger lower band)MACD line crossing back above signal (currently 4.96 vs 13.44), KDJ turning up from J 18.80, expanding volume on up daysRejection at 321.57 and slide back below 291.61
DownsideAcceptance below the 302.74 range low, which is already the caseBreak of 278.45 session low with rising volume, CCI (-86.91) dropping below -100Recovery above 302.74 and a MACD histogram turn
08Risk matrix
RiskEvidenceTriggerMonitoring action
Downtrend continuationPrice below all MAs and below support 321.57; MACD death cross, hist -8.48; trend labeled bearClose below 278.45 session lowTrack daily closes vs 302.74 and 278.45
Elevated volatilityATR14 8.82% of priceWide daily ranges (day range 278.45-309.50)Size any watch levels to ATR; avoid tight stops near volatile prints
Valuation stretch vs modelPE 70.21, EV/EBITDA 59.79; StockKit DCF base gap -76.6%Multiple compression on any sector de-ratingWatch multiple trend vs High-confidence fundamentals (Rev $18.44B, NI $5.36B)
Signal conflictOBV +79.02% vs price below support; MA label contradicts MA valuesDivergence persists without price follow-throughWeight numeric MA values over the text label; confirm OBV with price
Data/coverage gapsSocial sentiment not connected (Low); EV/EBITDA Low confidence; no earnings date suppliedNew unsupplied catalyst emergesRevisit when sentiment feed connects or event data is supplied
09Seven-day watch checklist

1. Daily close relative to 302.74 (30-session low) - the first reclaim hurdle. 2. Behavior at 321.57 (estimated support and Bollinger lower band coincide). 3. Defense or breach of the 278.45 session low. 4. MACD line vs signal (4.96 vs 13.44) and whether the -8.48 histogram narrows. 5. KDJ J-line (18.80) and K/D (27.09/31.24) for any upturn from soft levels. 6. Volume vs 20-session average (currently -52.05%) - expansion on up or down days. 7. OBV slope (+79.02%) for continued accumulation or a roll-over that would remove the one constructive signal.

Information-use note

This brief is a public-facing research preview built only from the supplied dataset (live quote, standard technical panel, strategy score, five NewsAPI headlines, SEC EDGAR companyfacts, and StockKit internal scenario outputs). It is not personalized investment advice and makes no promise or guarantee of returns. Rows and readings marked StockKit scenario model (PEG proxy, DCF fair-value range, base gap, 5Y growth forecast) are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. Lower-confidence areas: EV/EBITDA (Low), social sentiment (Not connected / Low), the large DCF-vs-price gap, and the internal inconsistency between the supplied MA-structure label and the supplied MA values - where this report relies on the numeric values. No earnings date, analyst rating, dividend yield, or 52-week range was supplied, so none were created. All levels are framed as watch levels, not instructions.

Strategy factors
MA交叉Weak
30

MA5<MA20死叉

MACD背离Neutral
55

MACD死叉,MACD在零轴上方,动能增强

RSI极值Neutral
50

RSI14=49中性

布林带Neutral
50

在通道中部

量价关系Neutral
55

缩量回调,可能企稳

News & catalyst inputs

What a $10,000 Investment in Lam Research 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today

Biztoc.com · 2026-08-02

S&P 500 ends with its first July decline since 2014. Here are the stocks that led the selloff.

MarketWatch · 2026-07-31

Stock Market Today: Chips Lead Nasdaq's Fierce Rebound, But Meta Bashed

Biztoc.com · 2026-07-31

Stocks Settle Sharply Higher as Microsoft Leads a Surge in Tech Stocks

Barchart.com · 2026-07-30

Stocks Rally on Stellar Microsoft Earnings and Chip Stock Strength

Barchart.com · 2026-07-30

Research boundary

StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.

Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.