ORLY
ORLY · US
ORLY Research Preview
| Field | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 90.59 |
| Daily move | +3.65% |
| Overall score | 40 / 100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 | 44.57 (soft, not washed out) |
| MACD | Line -0.98 / Signal -0.66 / Hist -0.32 (bearish) |
| Estimated support | 83.48 (+7.85% away) |
| Estimated resistance | 93.24 (+2.92% away) |
| 30-session range | 82.71-93.52 |
| Position in 30-session range | +72.92% |
| Data confidence | Technicals Medium; Valuation Medium; News/Sentiment Low |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 85.45 / 88.20 / 88.36 / 90.51 | Bearish alignment; price above MA20 but below MA60 |
| RSI (14/6) | 44.57 / 44.07 | Neutral-soft, not oversold |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.98 / -0.66 / -0.32 | Bearish; line below signal, below zero line |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 33.13 / 40.83 / 17.73 | Soft / still repairing |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 93.24 / 88.36 / 83.48 | Upper-middle zone (~73% of band width) |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 2.80 / +3.24% | Moderate volatility relative to price |
| OBV (level / 20-session slope) | 6,630,856.32 / -30.78% | Distribution pressure visible |
| CCI20 | -91.21 | Inside neutral band (near, not below, -100) |
What is confirmed: the bearish structure is coherent across MA alignment, MACD (below signal and zero line), OBV distribution slope, and a soft KDJ. These agree with the Bear trend tag and the 40/100 score.
What is conflicted: today's +3.65% move and price holding above MA20 push against the otherwise bearish read, so the bounce is not yet corroborated by the momentum panel. Volume signals are internally inconsistent - the strategy note reads "价涨量缩" (price up, volume down), while quote volume (13,378,377) sits above the supplied 20-session average (9,159,815); the supplied "-45.11% vs average" figure does not reconcile with these two numbers. Treat the volume conclusion as lower confidence until the discrepancy is resolved.
What is missing: no custom or proprietary indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel above, so none are folded in here.
Rows marked as StockKit scenario model are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. Dividend yield and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.55 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | -72.67 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 4.36 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.09 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | 5.74 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $37.83 / Base $48.96 / Bull $62.74 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -46.0% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -0.68% / Base +5.32% / Bull +11.32% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $17.78B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $2.54B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $77.54B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $16.94B / Equity -$1.07B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
Context, not conclusions: PB reads negative (-72.67) because reported equity is negative (-$1.07B); a negative book value makes PB non-meaningful as a standalone multiple. The StockKit DCF base fair value ($48.96) sits -46.0% below the current 90.59, but this is a model output, not a consensus target, and should be weighed against the EV/EBITDA row (Low confidence).
Confirmed, company-relevant news: none. All four supplied headlines are surfaced by keyword coverage but do not reference O'Reilly Automotive (SEC CIK 0000898173) or its business.
| Date | Headline | Source | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | "'A vida me protegeu': único passageiro sobrevivente do voo 820 da Varig..." | Terra.com.br | Not ORLY-related |
| 2026-07-31 | "August v kinách: Milan Ondrík v MMA..." | Pravda.sk | Not ORLY-related |
| 2026-07-30 | "Orlando Bloom's Full Relationship History..." | Cosmopolitan.com | Not ORLY-related |
| 2026-07-30 | "Mladý orel na Soutoku vypadl z hnízda..." | Novinky.cz | Not ORLY-related |
Missing data: no confirmed company catalysts (earnings dates, guidance, corporate actions) were supplied, and none can be inferred from the above. The headline feed appears to match on the "ORL"/"orel" string rather than the company, which lowers confidence in the news layer. No catalyst timeline can be constructed from the supplied set.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | 4 headlines | Terra.com.br x1, Pravda.sk x1, Cosmopolitan.com x1 | Medium |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider-level sentiment score was supplied, and social feeds (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not connected, so no crowd-sentiment reading is asserted. Because the headline coverage is not company-relevant (see Section 5), the news component of sentiment should be treated as effectively neutral/uninformative rather than positive or negative.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the MA20 (88.36) to MA60 (90.51) zone with MACD histogram (-0.32) flattening | Rangebound action between support 83.48 and resistance 93.24; RSI14 hovering near 44-50 | A decisive close outside 82.71 / 93.52 (the 30-session range) |
| Upside | Sustained close above resistance / Bollinger upper 93.24 with volume confirmation | MACD line crossing back above signal; OBV slope turning up from -30.78%; MA5 reclaiming MA20 | Failure to hold above MA60 (90.51); rejection at 93.24 |
| Downside | Loss of MA20 (88.36) and a slide toward estimated support 83.48 | MACD histogram widening negative; KDJ J-line (17.73) leading further down; OBV distribution accelerating | Reclaim of MA60 (90.51) and a higher low above 88.36 |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation lower | Bearish MA alignment; MACD below zero and signal; score 40/100 Bear | Break below MA20 (88.36) | Watch daily close vs 88.36 and support 83.48 |
| Distribution pressure | OBV 20-session slope -30.78% | OBV continues lower on up days | Track OBV direction against price on green sessions |
| Volume signal ambiguity | Strategy "价涨量缩" vs quote volume 13.38M above 20-session avg 9.16M; "-45.11%" figure does not reconcile | Continued mismatch in volume readings | Verify volume source before acting on volume-based signals |
| Valuation gap vs model | StockKit DCF base $48.96 implies -46.0% gap to 90.59; PEG proxy 5.74 | Fundamentals deteriorating vs 5Y base +5.32% | Revisit if reported revenue/net income trend changes |
| Negative book value | Reported equity -$1.07B; PB -72.67 non-meaningful | Further equity erosion | Monitor balance-sheet updates from SEC filings |
| News blind spot | Four supplied headlines are not company-relevant | Genuine ORLY headline emerges | Recheck company-specific news feed for real catalysts |
MA5<MA20死叉，空头排列
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能增强
RSI14=45中性
在通道中部，带宽扩张中
价涨量缩，上涨力度不足
'A vida me protegeu': único passageiro sobrevivente do voo 820 da Varig relembra tragédia histórica
Terra.com.br · 2026-07-31
August v kinách: Milan Ondrík v MMA, zákaz nemanželského sexu aj návrat hororu Insidious
Pravda.sk · 2026-07-31
Orlando Bloom’s Full Relationship History (Including His Blossoming Romance With Luisa Laemmel)
Cosmopolitan.com · 2026-07-30
Mladý orel na Soutoku vypadl z hnízda. Přežil jen díky lidské pomoci
Novinky.cz · 2026-07-30
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.