StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
ADSK · US · Cached
Generated 2026-08-04 03:35 UTC

ADSK

ADSK · US

$225.91
+7.70%
Technical posture
Neutral
Strategy score
54 / 100
Trend
bull
Data confidence
Medium
Research view

ADSK Research Preview

1. Bottom line - Current setup: ADSK (Autodesk, Inc.) closed at $225.91 after a +7.70% daily move, sitting +13.36% above MA20 and near the upper Bollinger band (141% of band). The strategy score is 54/100 with a Hold signal despite a bull trend read, reflecting strong short-term momentum against a stretched near-band position. - Confidence: Moderate on the technical picture (full indicator set supplied); lower on catalysts (no current news items) and on valuation forward assumptions (StockKit DCF and PEG rows are internally modeled, not consensus). - Most important level to monitor: The $213.89 estimated resistance (also the Bollinger upper band). Price is -5.32% from it; sustained action above versus rejection below is the single cleanest read on whether the current thrust holds.
02Key data snapshot
MetricReading
Price$225.91
Daily move+7.70%
Strategy score54/100 (Hold)
TrendBull
RSI14 / RSI649.54 / 60.81 (neutral momentum)
MACD (line / signal / hist)-3.77 / -6.79 / +3.02 (bullish config, below zero)
Estimated support$184.69
Estimated resistance$213.89
30-session range position+62.18% ($185.50-$250.49)
Data confidenceTechnicals moderate; news thin; valuation forward rows modeled

Note: current price ($225.91) sits above the supplied estimated resistance ($213.89) and above the 30-session high context; treat the resistance/upper-band cluster as a reclaimed zone under watch rather than an untested ceiling.

03Technical indicator panel
IndicatorReadingRead
MA (5/10/20/60)208.60 / 203.61 / 199.29 / 225.36MA5>MA10>MA20 aligned up; MA60 (225.36) still overhead - mixed alignment
RSI (14/6)49.54 / 60.81Neutral on RSI14; RSI6 firmer, no extreme
MACD-3.77 / -6.79 / +3.02Bullish crossover with positive histogram, but both lines below zero
KDJ (K/D/J)70.59 / 68.82 / 74.12Constructive crossover, upper-mid zone
Bollinger (U/M/L)213.89 / 199.29 / 184.69Near upper band (141% of band) - stretched
ATR14 (abs / %)7.65 / +3.67%Moderate volatility budget per session
OBV (value / 20d slope)9,114,099.35 / +393.43%Accumulation improving
CCI20103.61Above +100, strong upside momentum
  • Confirmed: Momentum and flow lean constructive - MACD histogram positive, KDJ crossover, CCI>100, OBV slope strongly positive, and the short-MA stack (MA5>MA10>MA20) points up.
  • Conflicted: RSI14 is neutral (49.54) while RSI6 and CCI run hotter; MACD is bullish in shape yet sits below the zero axis (momentum still recovering, per supplied MACD state). Price is +13.36% over MA20 and at 141% of the Bollinger band, so trend and overextension signals disagree.
  • Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the set above. Current volume is -64.20% versus the 20-session average (3,444,159), so the +7.70% move came on lighter participation - a caveat for follow-through confidence.
04Valuation matrix
AxisReadingSourceConfidence
PE43.21SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
PB15.23SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
Price / sales6.74SEC EDGAR companyfactsMedium
EV/EBITDA28.08SEC EDGAR companyfactsLow
PEG proxy3.95StockKit scenario modelMedium
StockKit fair value rangeBear $84.97 / Base $108.95 / Bull $138.36StockKit DCF scenario modelMedium
Base fair-value gap-51.8%StockKit DCF scenario modelMedium
5Y growth forecastBear +4.95% / Base +10.95% / Bull +16.95%StockKit scenario modelMedium
Revenue$7.21BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh
Net income$1.12BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh
Market cap$48.57BSEC shares outstanding + live quoteMedium
Balance sheet contextAssets $11.93B / Equity $3.19BSEC EDGAR companyfactsHigh

The StockKit DCF Base fair value ($108.95) implies a -51.8% gap to the current $225.91, and the PEG proxy of 3.95 is elevated relative to the modeled 5Y Base growth of +10.95%. These are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus, and carry Medium confidence; EV/EBITDA is flagged Low. Reported fundamentals (Revenue $7.21B, Net income $1.12B, Equity $3.19B) are High confidence. The gap between a stretched multiple set and the model's fair-value range is the core valuation tension to weigh against the constructive technicals.

05News and catalyst timeline
ItemStatusWhy it matters
Configured news sourceNo current news items availableNo confirmed, dated headlines to anchor a catalyst timeline; event-driven confidence is low

No current news items were returned from the configured source, so there is no confirmed catalyst to attach to the price action. This is a low-confidence area: the +7.70% move cannot be tied to a supplied, verified headline. Aggregate news-feed sentiment does exist (see Section 6), but that is a scored-tone signal rather than a specific catalyst. Treat near-term moves as flow- and technically-driven until a confirmed catalyst appears.

06Sentiment radar
SourceStatusReadingConfidence
Alpha Vantage ticker newsConnected27 positive / 23 neutral / 0 negative scored headlinesHigh
NewsAPI headline coverageNo headlinesNo source distribution availableLow
Social sentimentNot connectedReddit, X, StockTwits, and local forums are not configuredLow

Overall ticker news sentiment is Positive (0.220) across 50 scored headlines, with zero negative reads - a supportive but not extreme tone. This reflects news/feed sentiment only. NewsAPI returned no headlines, and social channels (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not connected, so any crowd/social read is unavailable and should not be inferred.

07Scenario framework
ScenarioTrigger conditionWhat would confirm itWhat would invalidate it
BasePrice holds the MA20 ($199.29) to resistance ($213.89) zone; score steady near 54/100 HoldSideways-to-firm action with RSI14 near neutral and MACD histogram staying positiveLoss of MA20 with MACD histogram flipping negative
UpsideSustained acceptance above $213.89 / upper band, reclaiming toward the 30-session high ($250.49)Follow-through on rising volume toward the 20-session average (3,444,159), OBV slope staying positive, RSI6 leading higherRejection back below $213.89 on fading volume; price back inside band
DownsideBreak below MA20 ($199.29) toward estimated support $184.69 (Bollinger lower)MACD histogram turning negative, KDJ crossover unwinding, OBV slope rolling overReclaim and hold of MA20 and $213.89 with momentum re-firming
08Risk matrix
RiskEvidenceTriggerMonitoring action
OverextensionPrice +13.36% over MA20, 141% of Bollinger band, CCI 103.61Rejection at $213.89 / upper bandWatch for close back inside the band and below $213.89
Thin-volume rallyCurrent volume -64.20% vs 20-session avg (3,444,159)Continued light volume on up-daysCompare daily volume to the ~3.44M average for confirmation
Momentum divergenceMACD bullish but below zero; RSI14 neutral (49.54)MACD histogram turns negativeTrack histogram and RSI14 crossing/holding neutral
Valuation gapPE 43.21, PEG proxy 3.95, DCF Base gap -51.8%Multiple compression toward modeled fair valueWatch price vs StockKit Base $108.95 (modeled, not consensus)
Catalyst blind spotNo current news items; social not connectedUnmodeled headline hits priceRecheck news source; note social feeds remain unavailable
Overhead MA60MA60 at 225.36, near current $225.91Failure to clear/hold MA60Watch price behavior around the 225.36 level
09Seven-day watch checklist

1. Acceptance vs rejection at $213.89 (estimated resistance / Bollinger upper band) - the primary decision level. 2. Behavior around MA60 ($225.36), essentially at current price, for trend-alignment confirmation. 3. MA20 ($199.29) as the base-case floor; a break shifts focus to support. 4. Daily volume versus the 20-session average (3,444,159) to validate or discount the move (currently -64.20%). 5. MACD histogram staying positive and the line/signal working back toward the zero axis. 6. RSI14 (49.54) direction out of neutral, with RSI6 (60.81) as the faster tell. 7. Any confirmed news item appearing from the configured source, and whether Alpha Vantage tone (Positive 0.220, 0 negative) holds.

Information-use note

This brief is a public-facing research preview built only from the supplied dataset and StockKit-computed context. It is not personalized investment advice and makes no promise of returns. Rows marked StockKit scenario model (PEG proxy, fair-value range, growth forecast) are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. Lower-confidence areas: no current news items were available, social sentiment sources are not connected, EV/EBITDA is flagged Low confidence, and forward valuation rows are Medium confidence. All levels are watch levels for observation, not instructions to act.

Strategy factors
MA交叉Constructive
70

MA5>MA20金叉

MACD背离Neutral
50

MACD金叉,MACD在零轴下方,动能减弱

RSI极值Neutral
50

RSI14=50中性

布林带Neutral
45

接近上轨

量价关系Neutral
55

缩量回调,可能企稳

Research boundary

StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.

Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.