ADSK
ADSK · US
I'm working through the stock data to build the report. The current price of 225.91 is up 7.70% for the day and sits near the 60-day moving average at 225.70, though it's actually above the upper Bollinger Band at 217.01 despite the precomputed data suggesting it's near the band. The 30-session range shows a position of +62.18% between the low of 185.50 and high of 250.49, but I'm noticing a conflict between the resistance level and the band positioning that needs clarification.# ADSK Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | $225.91 |
| Daily move | +7.70% |
| Strategy score | 59/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 49.66 / 61.21 |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | -4.45 / -7.55 / +3.09 |
| Estimated support | $182.86 |
| Estimated resistance | $217.01 |
| 30-session range position | +62.18% (range $185.50-$250.49) |
| Data confidence | Medium (news/sentiment: Low) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 208.40 / 201.74 / 199.93 / 225.70 | Short-term stack MA5>MA10>MA20 is bullish; price +12.99% above MA20 and just clearing MA60. Mixed alignment overall. |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 49.66 / 61.21 | Neutral on the 14-period; 6-period firmer but not extended. No overbought signal despite the rally. |
| MACD | -4.45 / -7.55 / +3.09 | Bullish configuration: histogram positive, line above signal, though both remain below the zero axis. Momentum improving, not yet confirmed above zero. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 71.77 / 67.94 / 79.42 | Constructive crossover, upper half of range. Supports the momentum read. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 217.01 / 199.93 / 182.86 | Price at ~126% of band width, above the upper band. Stretched; either a strong-trend signal or a mean-reversion risk. |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 7.75 / +3.72% | Elevated intraday volatility; roughly $7.75 average true range to frame stop distance. |
| OBV / 20-session slope | 14,186,666 / +473.36% | Accumulation improving over the 20-session window. Note tension with today's below-average volume. |
| CCI20 | 45.36 | Inside neutral band; no extreme reading. |
Confirmed: momentum indicators broadly agree (MACD histogram positive, KDJ crossover, short-term MA stack). Conflicted: price sits above the upper Bollinger band and above resistance while RSI14 and CCI stay neutral, and today's volume is 41.63% below the 20-session average despite a 7.70% gain (price up, volume down - the strategy engine flags "上涨力度不足" / insufficient thrust). Missing: no custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43.21 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 15.23 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 6.74 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.08 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low |
| PEG proxy | 3.95 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $84.97 / Base $108.95 / Bull $138.36 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -51.8% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +4.95% / Base +10.95% / Bull +16.95% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | $7.21B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $1.12B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $48.57B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $11.93B / Equity $3.19B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
The reported multiples sit at premium levels (PE 43.21, PB 15.23, EV/EBITDA 28.08, PEG proxy 3.95). The StockKit DCF scenario model places even its bull case ($138.36) below the current $225.91, implying a -51.8% gap to the base case. This is an internally computed forecast, not analyst consensus, and carries Medium confidence; the EV/EBITDA input is Low confidence. The gap between market price and modeled fair value is the central valuation tension: the tape is trending while the model reads the stock as richly priced.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Headline coverage | Missing - no items from configured source | No confirmed catalyst is available to explain or contextualize the 7.70% move. |
Confirmed news: none. The configured source returned no current items, so the session's gain cannot be tied to a documented catalyst from supplied data. This is a lower-confidence section: absence of headlines is not evidence that no catalyst exists, only that none was captured. Avoid inferring an earnings event, product release, or rating change - none is in the dataset.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Social channels are not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or forum reading is drawn. Sentiment cannot corroborate or contradict the technical picture here; treat this section as informational only.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price consolidates between $217.01 and the 30-session high $250.49, digesting the breakout | Hold above $217.01 with MACD line pushing toward the zero axis; RSI14 stabilizing above 50 | Close back below $217.01, returning inside the Bollinger channel |
| Upside | Volume normalizes toward the 20-session average (3.47M) while price holds the breakout | Sustained closes above $227.67 (day high) on above-average volume; MACD line crossing above zero | Rally continues only on shrinking volume, repeating today's price-up/volume-down pattern |
| Downside | Breakout fails from the upper band with no supporting news catalyst | Break of $217.01, then loss of MA20 ($199.93); OBV slope rolling over | Reclaim and hold of $217.01, with MA5>MA10>MA20 stack intact |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low-participation breakout | Volume -41.63% vs 20-session average on a +7.70% day | Continued gains on below-average volume | Watch daily volume vs the 3.47M average; confirm thrust before trusting the move |
| Mean-reversion from stretched band | Price above upper Bollinger band (~126% of band width) | Reversal back inside the band | Track $217.01 as the re-entry line into the channel |
| Valuation gap | StockKit DCF base $108.95 vs price $225.91 (-51.8% gap); PE 43.21, PEG proxy 3.95 | Any sentiment shift toward fundamentals | Watch whether price action decouples further from modeled value |
| MACD below zero | MACD line -4.45, signal -7.55 (both sub-zero) | Histogram rolling back negative | Confirm MACD line clears the zero axis before treating momentum as fully confirmed |
| No catalyst visibility | News and sentiment feeds returned nothing | Unexpected headline moving the stock | Re-check the news feed daily; the move currently lacks documented drivers |
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能增强
RSI14=50中性
在通道中部
价涨量缩，上涨力度不足
Research boundary
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