牧原股份
002714 · CN
002714 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 33.63 |
| Daily move | -2.97% |
| Strategy score | 51/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Consolidation |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 26.55 / 24.06 (oversold) |
| MACD line / signal / hist | -1.86 / -1.97 / +0.11 |
| Estimated support | 32.61 (+3.03% below price) |
| Estimated resistance | 39.42 (+17.21% above price) |
| 30-session range position | +0.95% (range 33.52-45.10) |
| Data confidence | Medium-low (no news, no sentiment) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 34.70 / 34.55 / 36.01 / 41.05 | Price below all MAs; downward-sloping longer MAs |
| RSI (14/6) | 26.55 / 24.06 | Oversold; rebound watch |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -1.86 / -1.97 / +0.11 | Golden cross below zero, momentum still weak |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 27.03 / 27.12 / 26.85 | Soft / still repairing in lower zone |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 39.42 / 36.01 / 32.61 | Near lower band (~15% of band) |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 1.08 / +3.22% | Moderate volatility relative to price |
| OBV / 20-session slope | -601,795,921 / -152.19% | Distribution pressure visible |
| CCI20 | -88.80 | Inside neutral band (not yet <-100 oversold) |
Confirmed: The oversold cluster is consistent. RSI14 (26.55), RSI6 (24.06), KDJ in the high-20s, and price pinned near the Bollinger lower band (32.61) all point to a stretched downside condition with rebound potential, which is why the RSI extreme sub-score reads 75/100 (Buy) and Bollinger reads 60/100 (Buy).
Conflicted: Momentum signals disagree with flow. The MACD histogram has turned slightly positive (+0.11) and the precomputed context calls this a "Bullish MACD configuration," yet both MACD lines remain well below zero (-1.86 / -1.97) and the MACD sub-score is only 50/100, with the note that momentum is weakening. Against this, OBV (slope -152.19%) and the volume-price sub-score (35/100, Sell, price-down-on-volume ~1.4x) show active selling. So a possible momentum turn is fighting visible distribution.
Also note an internal inconsistency: the supplied moving-average label reads "Mixed alignment (MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60)," but the raw values show MA10 (34.55) below MA20 (36.01), and the MA-cross sub-score (40/100) explicitly flags MA5<MA20 死叉. We treat the alignment as bearish-to-mixed, not cleanly stacked, and flag the label as lower confidence.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard set, so none are folded in here.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.68 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 2.25 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 2.21 | StockKit scenario model (internally computed) | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 36.7 / Base CNY 47.49 / Bull CNY 60.86 | StockKit DCF scenario model (internally computed) | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +41.2% | StockKit DCF scenario model (internally computed) | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -0.71% / Base +5.29% / Bull +11.29% | StockKit scenario model (internally computed) | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 144.15B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 15.49B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 2.88 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 14.94 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +5.17% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | -4.09% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
Note: PEG proxy, the fair-value range, the base fair-value gap, and the 5Y growth forecast are StockKit scenario-model outputs computed from public financial history (income period 2025-12-31). They are internal forecasts, not analyst consensus targets. The model's Base fair value (47.49) sits above the current 33.63, implying a +41.2% gap, but the negative net margin (-4.09%) and thin gross margin (+5.17%) are a tension to weigh against that gap. EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, market cap, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Status | Item |
|---|---|
| Confirmed news | None. No current news items were available from the configured source. |
| Missing data | Headline/catalyst feed returned nothing for this symbol. |
Because no headlines are available, this brief carries no event-driven view. There is nothing in the supplied data to explain the -2.97% session or the visible OBV distribution, so any catalyst attribution would be unsupported. Treat the absence as a gap, not as a quiet tape.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned. Social channels are not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are inferred. Sentiment is effectively a blank panel here and should not be weighted in the thesis.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (consolidation) | Price holds the 32.61-33.52 zone; RSI14 (26.55) stabilizes; MACD histogram stays positive (+0.11) | Range trade between support 32.61 and MA20 36.01; OBV slope flattens from -152.19% | Sustained close below 32.61, or fresh MACD histogram rollover negative |
| Upside (oversold rebound) | RSI14/RSI6 (26.55/24.06) turn up from oversold; bounce off Bollinger lower band (32.61) | Reclaim of MA5/MA10 (34.70/34.55), then a push toward resistance 39.42 (+17.21%) on improving OBV | Failure to clear MA5 (34.70); volume-down rally with OBV still falling |
| Downside (distribution continues) | Price-down-on-volume persists (~1.4x; current vol +38.74% vs 20-session avg); OBV slope stays deeply negative | Break of 30-session low 33.52 and support 32.61, opening Bollinger-band expansion lower | Decisive reclaim of MA20 (36.01) and OBV slope turning positive |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution/heavy selling | OBV slope -152.19%; volume-price sub-score 35/100 (Sell), price-down-volume ~1.4x | Continued down days on above-average volume (now +38.74% vs 20-session avg) | Watch OBV slope and daily volume vs 20-session average |
| Trend still down | Price -6.62% vs MA20; MA-cross sub-score 40/100 (MA5<MA20 death cross); MA60 41.05 well above price | Lower highs below MA20 (36.01) | Track price relative to MA5/MA10/MA20 |
| Weak momentum despite golden cross | MACD lines below zero (-1.86/-1.97); MACD sub-score 50/100, momentum weakening | Histogram (+0.11) rolling back negative | Watch MACD histogram sign and slope |
| Profitability stress | Net margin -4.09%; gross margin +5.17%; net income CNY 15.49B on revenue CNY 144.15B | Further margin deterioration in next reporting period | Monitor margin trend at next financial update |
| Information blind spot | No news, no sentiment from configured sources | New material headline appears unmodeled | Re-check news/sentiment feeds before acting on levels |
1. 32.61 support / 33.52 30-session low: confirm whether the shelf holds or breaks (highest priority). 2. Daily volume vs 20-session average (currently +38.74%) and OBV slope (-152.19%) for signs distribution is easing. 3. MA5 (34.70) and MA10 (34.55) as first reclaim levels for any rebound. 4. RSI14 (26.55) / RSI6 (24.06): look for an upturn out of oversold rather than further depression. 5. MACD histogram (+0.11): does the nascent positive turn hold or fade back negative. 6. MA20 (36.01) as the line separating consolidation from a real recovery; resistance 39.42 above. 7. News and sentiment feeds: re-poll for any new headline, since both panels were empty this cycle (lower-confidence area).
This brief is a public-facing research preview built only from the supplied StockKit dataset. It is not personalized investment advice and makes no return promises. Confidence is medium-low overall: technical and valuation inputs are populated, but the news and sentiment feeds returned no data, and the moving-average alignment label conflicts with the raw MA values, so those areas are flagged as lower confidence. Levels cited are watch levels for monitoring, not instructions to act. StockKit scenario-model rows are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus.
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD金叉,MACD在零轴下方,动能减弱
RSI14=27超卖
接近下轨,可能反弹
价跌放量(1.4x),抛压沉重
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.