StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
002714 · CN · Cached
Generated 2026-09-06 23:05 UTC
牧原股份
002714 · CN
¥43.97
+4.49%
Technical posture
Constructive
Strategy score
64 / 100
Trend
bull
Data confidence
Medium
Research view
002714 Research Preview
1. Bottom line
- 002714 (牧原股份) is trading at 43.97, with a current daily move of +4.49%.
- The StockKit strategy score is 64/100, creating a neutral research posture with bullish alignment (ma5 > ma10 > ma20 > ma60).
- The most important near-term watch zone is support at 37.79 and resistance at 43.28; price is +14.06% from support and -1.56% from resistance.
2. Key data snapshot
| Item | Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---:|---|
| Current price | 43.97 | Daily move +4.49% |
| Strategy score | 64/100 | Buy, trend: bull |
| MA structure | Bullish alignment (MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60) | The short-term moving average is above the medium-term moving average, which points to a firmer near-term structure. |
| RSI14 | 71.21 | Elevated / potential short-term exhaustion |
| MACD | 0.33 histogram | Bullish MACD configuration |
| Support / resistance | 37.79 / 43.28 | Watch these levels for confirmation or failure |
| 30-session range | 37.63 / 44.39 | Price sits at +93.79% of the range |
| Volume check | +58.13% vs 20D avg | Confirmation quality depends on volume follow-through |
| ATR14 / price | +2.55% | Proxy for short-term volatility risk |
3. Technical indicator panel
- Trend: The short-term moving average is above the medium-term moving average, which points to a firmer near-term structure.
- Momentum: RSI14 is in an elevated zone, so chasing strength carries higher short-term risk.
- MACD: histogram is 0.33, while MACD line / signal are 1.02 / 0.69.
- KDJ: K / D / J are 87.80 / 83.71 / 95.97; KDJ constructive crossover.
- Bollinger: Near upper band (112% of band); upper / middle / lower are 43.28 / 40.53 / 37.79.
- ATR / OBV / CCI: ATR14 is 1.12 (+2.55% of price), OBV slope is +195.19%, and CCI20 is 181.32.
- Levels: estimated support / resistance are 37.79 / 43.28; recent 30-session range is 37.63 / 44.39.
4. Valuation matrix
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.27 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 3.21 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 2.88 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 36.7 / Base CNY 47.49 / Bull CNY 60.86 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +8.0% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -0.71% / Base +5.29% / Bull +11.29% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 144.15B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 15.49B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 2.88 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 13.71 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | -1.58% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | -10.24% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
Notes: - AkShare report period used for income data: 2025-12-31. - PEG and fair-value range are StockKit scenario outputs computed from public financial history; they are not analyst consensus targets.
5. News and catalyst timeline
1. 華虹宏力、瀾起科技獲納富時中國50，9月18日盤後生效 - Yahoo Entertainment
6. Sentiment radar
1 recent headlines available; no provider-level sentiment score was supplied.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | 1 headlines | Yahoo Entertainment x1 | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
Notes: - No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol.
7. Scenario framework
| Scenario | Trigger condition | Confirmation signal | Invalidation signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Price remains between 37.79 and 43.28 | Strategy score stays near 64/100 and RSI avoids extremes | Close below support or a rapid score deterioration |
| Upside case | Price clears 43.28 | Improving MACD histogram and volume above 20D average | Failed breakout back below resistance |
| Downside case | Price breaks 37.79 | RSI weakens and MACD remains negative | Quick recovery back above support |
8. Risk matrix
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical failure | Support at 37.79 anchors the current setup | Close below support | Reassess trend and reduce confidence in base case |
| Momentum exhaustion | Elevated / potential short-term exhaustion; MACD state: Bullish MACD configuration | RSI extension or MACD rollover | Watch next 1-3 closes and histogram direction |
| Volatility expansion | ATR14 / price is +2.55% | Wide ranges without follow-through | Require confirmation before trusting a directional move |
| News/data gap | 1 current news items available | New headline or missing catalyst context | Refresh news before relying on stale views |
9. Seven-day watch checklist
- First watch: whether price respects 37.79 or starts accepting below it.
- Breakout watch: whether price can clear 43.28 with volume confirmation above the 20-session average.
- Momentum watch: whether RSI14 stays constructive without moving into an exhaustion zone.
- Risk watch: whether fresh news changes the catalyst picture.
Strategy cross-check
| Strategy | Score | Signal | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA交叉 | 90/100 | StrongBuy | MA5>MA20金叉，多头排列 |
| MACD背离 | 85/100 | StrongBuy | MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能增强 |
| RSI极值 | 15/100 | StrongSell | RSI14=71超买，短期极度超买 |
| 布林带 | 40/100 | Hold | 突破上轨，短期超买，带宽扩张中 |
Information-use note
StockKit provides market research tools for informational and educational use. The output does not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Strategy factors
MA交叉Strong momentum
90
MA5>MA20金叉，多头排列
MACD背离Strong momentum
85
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能增强
RSI极值Deteriorating
15
RSI14=71超买，短期极度超买
布林带Neutral
40
突破上轨，短期超买，带宽扩张中
量价关系Constructive
70
价涨量增(1.6x)，走势确认
News & catalyst inputs
華虹宏力、瀾起科技獲納富時中國50，9月18日盤後生效
Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-09-03
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.
Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.