StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
002714 · CN · Cached
Generated 2026-06-19 02:14 UTC

牧原股份

002714 · CN

¥33.63
-2.97%
Technical posture
Neutral
Strategy score
51 / 100
Trend
consolidation
Data confidence
Medium
Research view

002714 Research Preview

1. Bottom line - Current setup: 牧原股份 (002714) is trading at CNY 33.63, down -2.97% on the session and -6.62% below its MA20 (36.01), sitting near the lower Bollinger band (15% of band width) and only +0.95% off the bottom of its 30-session range. The tape shows an oversold pullback (RSI14 26.55) into estimated support at 32.61, but with heavy distribution pressure (OBV 20-session slope -152.19%, price-down-on-volume at ~1.4x). - Confidence: Medium-low. Technical and valuation inputs are populated, but news and sentiment feeds returned nothing, so the catalyst and crowd-positioning side of this brief is low confidence. The internal moving-average alignment label is also self-contradictory (see Section 3). - Most important level/condition to monitor: The 32.61 support shelf (estimated support, also the Bollinger lower band). Holding above it keeps the oversold-rebound thesis alive; a decisive break below the 30-session low at 33.52 / support at 32.61 would invalidate it.
02Key data snapshot
MetricReading
PriceCNY 33.63
Daily move-2.97%
Strategy score51/100 (Hold)
TrendConsolidation
RSI14 / RSI626.55 / 24.06 (oversold)
MACD line / signal / hist-1.86 / -1.97 / +0.11
Estimated support32.61 (+3.03% below price)
Estimated resistance39.42 (+17.21% above price)
30-session range position+0.95% (range 33.52-45.10)
Data confidenceMedium-low (no news, no sentiment)
03Technical indicator panel
IndicatorReadingRead
MA (5/10/20/60)34.70 / 34.55 / 36.01 / 41.05Price below all MAs; downward-sloping longer MAs
RSI (14/6)26.55 / 24.06Oversold; rebound watch
MACD (line/signal/hist)-1.86 / -1.97 / +0.11Golden cross below zero, momentum still weak
KDJ (K/D/J)27.03 / 27.12 / 26.85Soft / still repairing in lower zone
Bollinger (U/M/L)39.42 / 36.01 / 32.61Near lower band (~15% of band)
ATR14 / ATR14%1.08 / +3.22%Moderate volatility relative to price
OBV / 20-session slope-601,795,921 / -152.19%Distribution pressure visible
CCI20-88.80Inside neutral band (not yet <-100 oversold)

Confirmed: The oversold cluster is consistent. RSI14 (26.55), RSI6 (24.06), KDJ in the high-20s, and price pinned near the Bollinger lower band (32.61) all point to a stretched downside condition with rebound potential, which is why the RSI extreme sub-score reads 75/100 (Buy) and Bollinger reads 60/100 (Buy).

Conflicted: Momentum signals disagree with flow. The MACD histogram has turned slightly positive (+0.11) and the precomputed context calls this a "Bullish MACD configuration," yet both MACD lines remain well below zero (-1.86 / -1.97) and the MACD sub-score is only 50/100, with the note that momentum is weakening. Against this, OBV (slope -152.19%) and the volume-price sub-score (35/100, Sell, price-down-on-volume ~1.4x) show active selling. So a possible momentum turn is fighting visible distribution.

Also note an internal inconsistency: the supplied moving-average label reads "Mixed alignment (MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60)," but the raw values show MA10 (34.55) below MA20 (36.01), and the MA-cross sub-score (40/100) explicitly flags MA5<MA20 死叉. We treat the alignment as bearish-to-mixed, not cleanly stacked, and flag the label as lower confidence.

Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard set, so none are folded in here.

04Valuation matrix
AxisReadingSourceConfidence
PE11.68AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
PB2.25AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
PEG proxy2.21StockKit scenario model (internally computed)Medium
StockKit fair value rangeBear CNY 36.7 / Base CNY 47.49 / Bull CNY 60.86StockKit DCF scenario model (internally computed)Medium
Base fair-value gap+41.2%StockKit DCF scenario model (internally computed)Medium
5Y growth forecastBear -0.71% / Base +5.29% / Bull +11.29%StockKit scenario model (internally computed)Medium
RevenueCNY 144.15BAkShare THS financial abstractMedium
Net incomeCNY 15.49BAkShare THS financial abstractMedium
EPS2.88AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
Book value per share14.94AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
Gross margin+5.17%AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
Net margin-4.09%AkShare THS financial abstractMedium

Note: PEG proxy, the fair-value range, the base fair-value gap, and the 5Y growth forecast are StockKit scenario-model outputs computed from public financial history (income period 2025-12-31). They are internal forecasts, not analyst consensus targets. The model's Base fair value (47.49) sits above the current 33.63, implying a +41.2% gap, but the negative net margin (-4.09%) and thin gross margin (+5.17%) are a tension to weigh against that gap. EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, market cap, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.

05News and catalyst timeline
StatusItem
Confirmed newsNone. No current news items were available from the configured source.
Missing dataHeadline/catalyst feed returned nothing for this symbol.

Because no headlines are available, this brief carries no event-driven view. There is nothing in the supplied data to explain the -2.97% session or the visible OBV distribution, so any catalyst attribution would be unsupported. Treat the absence as a gap, not as a quiet tape.

06Sentiment radar
SourceStatusReadingConfidence
NewsAPI headline coverageNo headlinesNo source distribution availableLow
Social sentimentNot connectedNo social sentiment conclusion is drawnLow

No provider sentiment series was returned. Social channels are not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are inferred. Sentiment is effectively a blank panel here and should not be weighted in the thesis.

07Scenario framework
ScenarioTrigger conditionWhat would confirm itWhat would invalidate it
Base (consolidation)Price holds the 32.61-33.52 zone; RSI14 (26.55) stabilizes; MACD histogram stays positive (+0.11)Range trade between support 32.61 and MA20 36.01; OBV slope flattens from -152.19%Sustained close below 32.61, or fresh MACD histogram rollover negative
Upside (oversold rebound)RSI14/RSI6 (26.55/24.06) turn up from oversold; bounce off Bollinger lower band (32.61)Reclaim of MA5/MA10 (34.70/34.55), then a push toward resistance 39.42 (+17.21%) on improving OBVFailure to clear MA5 (34.70); volume-down rally with OBV still falling
Downside (distribution continues)Price-down-on-volume persists (~1.4x; current vol +38.74% vs 20-session avg); OBV slope stays deeply negativeBreak of 30-session low 33.52 and support 32.61, opening Bollinger-band expansion lowerDecisive reclaim of MA20 (36.01) and OBV slope turning positive
08Risk matrix
RiskEvidenceTriggerMonitoring action
Distribution/heavy sellingOBV slope -152.19%; volume-price sub-score 35/100 (Sell), price-down-volume ~1.4xContinued down days on above-average volume (now +38.74% vs 20-session avg)Watch OBV slope and daily volume vs 20-session average
Trend still downPrice -6.62% vs MA20; MA-cross sub-score 40/100 (MA5<MA20 death cross); MA60 41.05 well above priceLower highs below MA20 (36.01)Track price relative to MA5/MA10/MA20
Weak momentum despite golden crossMACD lines below zero (-1.86/-1.97); MACD sub-score 50/100, momentum weakeningHistogram (+0.11) rolling back negativeWatch MACD histogram sign and slope
Profitability stressNet margin -4.09%; gross margin +5.17%; net income CNY 15.49B on revenue CNY 144.15BFurther margin deterioration in next reporting periodMonitor margin trend at next financial update
Information blind spotNo news, no sentiment from configured sourcesNew material headline appears unmodeledRe-check news/sentiment feeds before acting on levels
09Seven-day watch checklist

1. 32.61 support / 33.52 30-session low: confirm whether the shelf holds or breaks (highest priority). 2. Daily volume vs 20-session average (currently +38.74%) and OBV slope (-152.19%) for signs distribution is easing. 3. MA5 (34.70) and MA10 (34.55) as first reclaim levels for any rebound. 4. RSI14 (26.55) / RSI6 (24.06): look for an upturn out of oversold rather than further depression. 5. MACD histogram (+0.11): does the nascent positive turn hold or fade back negative. 6. MA20 (36.01) as the line separating consolidation from a real recovery; resistance 39.42 above. 7. News and sentiment feeds: re-poll for any new headline, since both panels were empty this cycle (lower-confidence area).

Information-use note

This brief is a public-facing research preview built only from the supplied StockKit dataset. It is not personalized investment advice and makes no return promises. Confidence is medium-low overall: technical and valuation inputs are populated, but the news and sentiment feeds returned no data, and the moving-average alignment label conflicts with the raw MA values, so those areas are flagged as lower confidence. Levels cited are watch levels for monitoring, not instructions to act. StockKit scenario-model rows are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus.

Strategy factors
MA交叉Neutral
40

MA5<MA20死叉

MACD背离Neutral
50

MACD金叉,MACD在零轴下方,动能减弱

RSI极值Constructive
75

RSI14=27超卖

布林带Constructive
60

接近下轨,可能反弹

量价关系Weak
35

价跌放量(1.4x),抛压沉重

Research boundary

StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.

Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.