复星医药
600196 · CN
600196 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 21.79 |
| Daily move | +0.97% |
| Strategy score | 58/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Consolidation |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 35.95 / 40.59 |
| MACD line / signal / hist | -0.68 / -0.73 / +0.05 |
| Estimated support | 21.16 |
| Estimated resistance | 23.66 |
| 30-session range position | +12.36% (range 21.25-25.62) |
| Data confidence | Technicals: Medium-High; Fundamentals/News/Sentiment: Low-Medium |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 21.98 / 21.93 / 22.41 / 24.49 | Mixed. MA5 > MA10 confirms short-term firming, but MA5 < MA20 < MA60 keeps the medium-term structure heavy. Price is -2.76% under MA20. |
| RSI (14/6) | 35.95 / 40.59 | Soft but not washed out. RSI14 near 36 flags a low-momentum tape without a classic oversold extreme. |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.68 / -0.73 / +0.05 | Line above signal with a positive histogram = a fresh crossover, but it occurs below the zero axis, so this is an attempt to base, not a confirmed uptrend. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 36.54 / 34.90 / 39.82 | K > D constructive crossover from low levels - early stabilization signal. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 23.66 / 22.41 / 21.16 | Price sits in the mid-band zone (~25% of band width), below the middle band. |
| ATR14 | 0.56 (+2.55% of price) | Moderate daily volatility budget; useful for sizing watch-level buffers. |
| OBV | -489,047,615 (20-session slope -26.71%) | Distribution pressure visible - the clearest bearish tell in the panel. |
| CCI20 | -85.41 | Inside the neutral band, leaning weak but not at an extreme. |
Confirmed: Short-term momentum stabilization is corroborated by three independent reads - MACD histogram turning positive, KDJ K>D crossover, and RSI lifting off lower levels.
Conflicted: The supplied precomputed context labels MA structure "MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60" and MACD "bullish," but the raw MA values show MA5 < MA20 < MA60 (a near-term death-cross condition, matching the strategy score's "MA5<MA20死叉"). The momentum panel is therefore improving while the trend structure remains heavy. OBV's negative slope conflicts directly with the volume-confirmation signal in the strategy score.
Missing: No custom/proprietary indicators were supplied beyond the standard set, so this section reflects the listed indicators only.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.16 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 1.18 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 11.67 / Base CNY 14.41 / Bull CNY 18.74 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -33.9% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -3.32% / Bull +2.68% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 41.66B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 3.37B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 1.27 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 18.4 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +49.70% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +10.72% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
Notes: PEG proxy was N/A in the supplied data and is omitted. The fair-value range, base gap, and 5Y growth rows are StockKit scenario-model outputs computed from public financial history - internal forecasts, not analyst consensus. On those internal numbers, spot (21.79) sits about 33.9% above the model's base fair value (14.41) and above the bull case (18.74), while reported PB of 1.18 against book value of 18.4 is a less stretched read. The model's negative 5Y base growth forecast (-3.32%) is the main driver of the valuation gap. Income data references the 2025-12-31 AkShare report period.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Headline news | No current items from the configured source | No confirmed catalyst on the tape - moves are likely technical/flow-driven near-term |
| Scheduled catalysts | Not supplied | No earnings dates, corporate actions, or analyst events were provided; none are inferred here |
Confirmed news: None available. Missing data: The entire catalyst calendar is absent. With no headline driver, the price action should be read through the technical and valuation lenses above; treat the lack of catalyst confirmation as a known blind spot.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum reads are available or fabricated. Sentiment is effectively a blank input here - confidence is Low across the board.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (consolidation) | Price holds the 21.16-22.41 zone (support to MA20) | Sideways action with MACD histogram staying positive and KDJ holding its K>D read | Decisive close below 21.16 support, or rejection back under 21.25 (range low) |
| Upside (stabilization extends) | Reclaim and hold above MA20 (22.41), then press toward resistance 23.66 (Bollinger upper) | RSI14 lifting back above ~50, MACD crossing toward zero axis, and OBV slope turning less negative | OBV distribution deepens; price stalls under MA20 and rolls over |
| Downside (structure resolves lower) | Loss of estimated support 21.16 on rising volume | Move toward the StockKit base fair-value zone (14.41), consistent with the -33.9% model gap | Quick recovery back above 21.16 and reclaim of MA5 (21.98) |
Watch levels above are observation thresholds, not instructions.
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution / supply overhang | OBV -489.0M, 20-session slope -26.71% | OBV slope steepens while price stalls | Track OBV slope vs price daily |
| Heavy medium-term trend | MA5 < MA20 (22.41) < MA60 (24.49); price -2.76% vs MA20 | Failure to reclaim MA20 | Watch MA20 as the line between consolidation and weakness |
| Valuation gap (model-based) | StockKit base fair value 14.41, base gap -33.9%, 5Y base growth -3.32% | Confirmation of negative growth trajectory in future filings | Re-check fundamentals at next reporting period (data references 2025-12-31) |
| Information blind spot | No news, no sentiment series available | Sudden headline appears with no prior context | Re-run news/sentiment feed before acting on levels |
| Soft momentum reversal | RSI14 35.95, CCI20-85.41 (neutral-weak) | RSI rolls back under ~35 | Confirm whether the MACD/KDJ stabilization holds or fades |
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能增强
RSI14=36偏低
在通道中部
价涨量增(1.1x)，走势确认，连续放量上涨
Research boundary
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