中国神华
601088 · CN
601088 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 41.26 |
| Daily move | -1.43% |
| Overall score | 40/100 (Signal: Sell) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 29.85 / 15.84 |
| MACD line / signal / hist | -0.92 / -0.10 / -0.82 |
| Estimated support | 41.18 (+0.20% away) |
| Estimated resistance | 51.53 (+24.89% away) |
| 30-session range position | +0.00% (range 41.26 / 51.18) |
| Data confidence | Medium (price/technical complete; news & sentiment Low) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 43.03 / 45.82 / 46.35 / 46.52 | Bearish alignment; price -10.99% below MA20 |
| RSI (14 / 6) | 29.85 / 15.84 | Deeply oversold; rebound watch |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.92 / -0.10 / -0.82 | Bearish; below zero, momentum still weakening |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 7.57 / 19.33 / -15.96 | Washed-out; J deeply negative, rebound watch |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 51.53 / 46.35 / 41.18 | Price at lower band (~1% of band width) |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 1.77 / +4.28% | Elevated volatility relative to price |
| OBV / 20-sess slope | -154,083,115 / -232.44% | Distribution pressure visible |
| CCI20 | -152.55 | Below -100; downside pressure / oversold |
Confirmed: A coherent downtrend. The bearish MA stack, sub-zero MACD with a negative histogram (-0.82), negative OBV slope (-232.44%), and CCI at -152.55 all point the same direction.
Conflicted: Trend signals oppose mean-reversion signals. RSI14 at 29.85 (StockKit RSI sub-score 85/100, StrongBuy), KDJ J at -15.96, and the price sitting on the lower Bollinger band (StockKit Bollinger sub-score 65/100, Buy) argue for a possible oversold bounce, while MA cross (10/100, StrongSell) and MACD (20/100, Sell) argue for continued weakness. This is an oversold reading inside an intact downtrend, not a confirmed reversal.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel above, so none are folded in here.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.51 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 1.82 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 24.44 / Base CNY 29.29 / Bull CNY 38.12 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -29.0% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 294.92B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 52.85B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 2.66 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 22.65 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +32.89% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +18.91% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
The PEG proxy row is N/A in the supplied data (StockKit scenario model, Low) and is therefore omitted from interpretation. EV/EBITDA, market cap, dividend yield, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
The StockKit DCF scenario rows are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus targets. They place current price (41.26) above the modeled Base fair value of 29.29 (Base fair-value gap -29.0%) and above the Bull case of 38.12. This contrast sits against trailing fundamentals showing a PE of 15.51, net margin +18.91%, and EPS of 2.66. The model's 5Y growth forecast is negative in Bear/Base (-8.00% / -4.00%) and only marginally positive in Bull (+2.00%), which is the main driver of the conservative fair-value range. Treat the gap as a model output to monitor, not a price instruction.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Configured news source | No current news items available | No confirmed headline catalyst is present in the dataset, so near-term moves cannot be attributed to news flow here |
Confirmed news: None supplied. Missing data: The entire headline feed is absent. Because no items were returned, no earnings dates, ratings, or corporate events can be cited. This is a lower-confidence section, and any catalyst read should be sourced independently before acting.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are inferred because no source is marked connected. This section is Low confidence and should be treated as a data gap rather than a neutral signal.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price oscillates near the 41.18 support / lower-band zone while the downtrend stays intact | Continued bearish MA stack (MA5 43.03 < MA20 46.35), MACD below zero, range position holding near the 30-session low | A sustained reclaim of MA5 (43.03) on improving MACD histogram |
| Upside | Oversold mean-reversion fires from RSI14 29.85 / RSI6 15.84 and KDJ J -15.96 | Bounce off lower Bollinger band (41.18) toward MA5 (43.03), then MA10 (45.82), with MACD histogram contracting from -0.82 | Failure to hold 41.18 and a close below the lower band; OBV slope staying deeply negative (-232.44%) |
| Downside | Decisive break of 41.18 support / lower band | Close below the 30-session low (41.26 area) with elevated ATR (4.28% of price) and continued distribution (OBV -154M) | Reclaim and hold above 41.18 with RSI lifting off oversold |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation | Bearish MA alignment; price -10.99% below MA20; MACD -0.92 below zero | Daily close below 41.18 support | Watch the 41.18 lower-band level and MACD histogram direction |
| Distribution pressure | OBV -154,083,115 with 20-session slope -232.44%; price down on +10.02% above-average volume | OBV slope stays negative on further price drops | Track OBV slope alongside daily volume vs 20-session average (49.46M) |
| Volatility | ATR14 1.77 (+4.28% of price) | Wider daily ranges around support | Size expectations to ATR; treat 41.18 tests as high-variance |
| Valuation gap (model) | StockKit Base fair value 29.29 vs price 41.26 (gap -29.0%); negative 5Y growth forecast Base -4.00% | Fundamentals deteriorate toward the modeled Bear path | Reassess if reported revenue/net income trend below the supplied 294.92B / 52.85B baseline |
| Information gap | No news headlines and no connected sentiment feed (both Low confidence) | A catalyst emerges outside the dataset | Source news and sentiment independently before drawing conclusions |
1. The 41.18 support / lower Bollinger band: does price hold above (+0.20% buffer) or break below. 2. RSI14 (29.85) and RSI6 (15.84): any lift off oversold that would support the rebound-watch case. 3. MACD histogram (-0.82): contraction toward zero versus further expansion. 4. KDJ J (-15.96): turn higher as a tentative washed-out reversal tell. 5. MA5 (43.03) reclaim: the first overhead hurdle for any bounce; then MA10 (45.82). 6. OBV slope (-232.44%) and daily volume vs 20-session average (49.46M): confirmation that distribution is easing or intensifying. 7. New information: monitor for any news or sentiment data, currently absent and Low confidence, that could change the technical setup.
This brief uses only the supplied dataset. Sections with absent inputs (news, sentiment, and the omitted valuation rows) are flagged as lower confidence rather than filled with estimates. StockKit DCF and scenario rows are internally computed model outputs, not analyst consensus. This is general research information, not personalized investment advice, and it does not promise or imply any return. Levels cited are watch levels for observation, not instructions to act.
MA5<MA20死叉，空头排列
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=30超卖，短期极度超卖
接近下轨，可能反弹，带宽扩张中
价跌放量(1.1x)，抛压沉重
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.