中国太保
601601 · CN
601601 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 29.98 |
| Daily move | -6.87% |
| Strategy score | 56/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Consolidation |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 30.12 / 24.24 |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | -0.87 / -1.00 / 0.12 |
| Estimated support | 30.37 |
| Estimated resistance | 33.77 |
| 30-session range position | +1.47% (range 29.86-38.00) |
| Data confidence | Medium-low (no news, no sentiment, valuation flagged) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 32.16 / 31.92 / 32.07 / 35.32 | Price -6.52% below MA20; short-term MAs clustered near 32, MA60 at 35.32. Context flags MA5>MA20 as a golden cross, but price trades below the whole cluster. |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 30.12 / 24.24 | Soft but not fully washed out. RSI14 at the conventional 30 threshold; RSI6 deeper at 24.24. |
| MACD | -0.87 / -1.00 / 0.12 | Histogram positive (+0.12) with line above signal, but both below the zero axis. Momentum is repairing from below, not confirming an uptrend. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 37.19 / 48.14 / 15.28 | Soft / still repairing. J at 15.28 is low; K below D. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 33.77 / 32.07 / 30.37 | Price near the lower band (context: -12% of band width), under the 32.07 middle. Short-term oversold per the strategy module. |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 1.10 / +3.67% | Elevated single-day volatility; daily true range ~3.67% of price. |
| OBV / OBV slope | -961,621,043.00 / -21.23% | Distribution pressure: 20-session OBV slope deeply negative. |
| CCI20 | -154.37 | Below -100, indicating downside pressure / oversold territory. |
Confirmed: A cluster of oversold/soft signals (RSI14 at 30, RSI6 at 24.24, CCI20 at -154.37, price near the Bollinger lower band) line up with the heavy down day. The MACD histogram turning positive while still below zero is consistent with a momentum bottoming attempt rather than a trend reversal.
Conflicted: The MA5>MA20 "golden cross" read and "bullish MACD configuration" label sit against price trading -6.52% below MA20, a -6.87% daily drop, and OBV distribution. The KDJ is soft despite the oversold backdrop. These tensions are why the trend reads as consolidation, not turn.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so nothing additional is folded in here.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.39 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 0.90 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 0.42 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair-value range | Bear CNY 97.24 / Base CNY 124.33 / Bull CNY 157.48 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +314.7% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +6.69% / Base +12.69% / Bull +18.69% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 435.16B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 53.50B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 5.56 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 33.22 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +11.20% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
On the reported abstract figures, the stock screens inexpensive on a backward basis: PE of 5.39, PB of 0.90 (price below the 33.22 book value per share), and a net margin of +11.20% on CNY 435.16B revenue.
Lower-confidence flag: The StockKit DCF rows (fair-value range CNY 97.24-157.48 and the implied +314.7% base gap) are internally computed scenario forecasts, not analyst consensus targets. A base fair value of CNY 124.33 against a 29.98 price implies a magnitude that is inconsistent with the same model's PB of 0.90 and EPS of 5.56, and should be treated as a likely scale/units artifact rather than a literal price objective. Do not anchor expectations to the +314.7% figure. Gross margin was N/A and is omitted; EV/EBITDA, market cap, dividend yield, and an explicit 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Headline coverage | No current news items were available from the configured source. |
No company-specific headlines were returned, so no confirmed catalysts can be dated or assessed. With the news feed empty, the near-term narrative is being set by price and volume action (the -6.87% high-volume session) rather than by any verifiable event in the dataset. This section is low confidence by absence of data; no earnings dates, ratings, or corporate actions are inferred.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Headline coverage produced no distribution, and the social channel is not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum reading is drawn. Sentiment is effectively a blind spot in this brief.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (consolidation) | Price holds the 29.86-30.37 zone and oscillates below MA20 (32.07) | Daily closes contained between ~30.37 support and 32.07 middle band; MACD histogram staying positive while RSI14 stabilizes near 30+ | A decisive daily close below 29.86, or a clean reclaim of MA20 with expanding volume |
| Upside (oversold repair) | Reclaim of the 30.37 support, then the 32.07 Bollinger middle | Close back above 30.37 followed by 32.07/33.77 (MA5/MA10/MACD line crossing toward zero, RSI lifting off 30) | Rejection at 30.37-32.07 on falling volume, or OBV slope staying deeply negative |
| Downside (range breakdown) | Sustained break of the 29.86 30-session low | Daily close below 29.86 with volume remaining elevated and OBV distribution deepening; CCI20 staying below -100 | A reclaim of 30.37 and a daily close back above the lower band |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution / selling pressure | OBV slope -21.23%; current volume +111.90% vs 20-session average; 量价关系 35/100 (Sell, "价跌放量 2.1x") | Continued down days on above-average volume | Watch daily volume vs the ~52.2M 20-session average and OBV slope direction |
| Support failure | Price -1.31% below 30.37 estimated support; near 30-session low (29.86) | Daily close below 29.86 | Track the 29.86-30.37 band as the line in the sand |
| Trend still down despite oversold | Price -6.52% below MA20; MA60 at 35.32 well above price; trend = consolidation | Failure to reclaim MA20 (32.07) | Confirm direction via MA20 reclaim/rejection |
| Elevated volatility | ATR14% +3.67%; single -6.87% session | Further wide-range days | Size expectations to ATR; expect ~3.7% daily swings |
| Valuation-model data quality | StockKit base fair value CNY 124.33 vs 29.98 price (+314.7% gap) inconsistent with PB 0.90 | Reliance on the DCF figure as a literal target | Treat DCF rows as flagged/low confidence; lean on PE/PB instead |
| Information blind spots | No news and no sentiment data returned | Any unflagged event moving price | Re-check news/sentiment feeds before acting on technicals alone |
1. The 30.37 estimated support (Bollinger lower band): daily close back above it vs failure. 2. The 29.86 30-session range low: any daily close below it signals breakdown. 3. Volume vs the ~52.2M 20-session average; whether selling intensity (currently +111.90%) fades. 4. OBV slope (now -21.23%): looking for it to flatten or turn up. 5. MACD histogram (currently +0.12) and the line crossing back toward the zero axis. 6. RSI14 (30.12) / RSI6 (24.24): stabilization and lift off oversold vs deeper washout. 7. MA20 at 32.07 and the 33.77 resistance: reclaim attempts and rejection on volume.
This brief uses only the supplied StockKit dataset. Technical indicators are well-populated; news and sentiment feeds returned no data and are explicitly low confidence. The valuation block's StockKit DCF rows are internally computed scenario forecasts, not analyst consensus, and the +314.7% base fair-value gap is flagged as a likely data/scale artifact rather than a price objective. All levels are watch levels for monitoring, not instructions, and nothing here is personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=30偏低
跌破下轨，短期超卖
价跌放量(2.1x)，抛压沉重
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.