通威股份
600438 · CN
600438 Research Preview
| Field | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 12.85 |
| Daily move | -2.50% |
| Strategy score | 41/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 28.47 / 24.89 |
| MACD line / signal / hist | -0.83 / -0.83 / -0.00 |
| Estimated support | 12.34 (+3.94% above) |
| Estimated resistance | 15.99 (+24.47% above) |
| 30-session range | 12.69-17.84 (position +3.11%) |
| Data confidence | Medium (technicals), Low (news/sentiment/DCF) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 13.36 / 13.46 / 14.17 / 16.08 | Bearish order; price below all MAs, -9.31% vs MA20 |
| RSI (14/6) | 28.47 / 24.89 | Oversold; rebound-watch territory |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.83 / -0.83 / -0.00 | Below zero line; histogram flat near zero, momentum decay fading |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 31.10 / 36.87 / 19.55 | Soft / still repairing in lower zone |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 15.99 / 14.17 / 12.34 | Price near lower band (14% of band) |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 0.56 / +4.35% | Moderate intraday range relative to price |
| OBV / 20-sess slope | -497,410,664 / -665.29% | Distribution pressure visible |
| CCI20 | -107.48 | Below -100; downside pressure / oversold |
Confirmed: The bearish trend is well corroborated. MA order, sub-zero MACD, negative OBV slope, and below-MA20 price all point the same direction. Separately, three oversold readings agree: RSI14 28.47, CCI20-107.48, and price pinned near the lower Bollinger band.
Conflicted: Trend versus mean-reversion. The trend indicators (MA stack, MACD, OBV) say bearish, while the oscillators (RSI, CCI, Bollinger position) say stretched to the downside and rebound-eligible. The MACD histogram at -0.00 hints momentum is no longer expanding lower, but the line remains below signal and zero, so this is early and unconfirmed.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied, so none are folded in here. All standard panel inputs were present.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | -6.06 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 1.65 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | -0.34 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 84.13B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY -9.55B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | -2.12 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 7.77 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | -4.03% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | -26.51% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
PE (-6.06), PEG proxy (-0.34), gross margin (-4.03%), and net margin (-26.51%) are all negative, consistent with a reported net loss of CNY -9.55B on CNY 84.13B revenue (period 2025-12-31) and EPS of -2.12. With earnings negative, PB (1.65) against book value per share of 7.77 is the more usable multiple. The StockKit DCF fair-value range is N/A across Bear/Base/Bull and the base fair-value gap is N/A, so no fair-value anchor or upside/downside gap can be stated; treat the DCF rows as low confidence and omitted from any target framing. The 5Y growth forecast and PEG proxy are StockKit scenario outputs computed from public financial history, not analyst consensus.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Configured news source | No current news items available | No confirmed headlines means the technical/valuation picture is the only evidence base; catalyst risk is unquantified |
Confirmed news: none available from the configured source. Missing data: the entire headline feed. No earnings dates, ratings changes, or company events are supplied, so no catalyst timeline can be constructed. This section is low confidence by absence of data, and any near-term move should be read as flow- and technically driven until a headline source confirms otherwise.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Headline coverage produced no distribution, and the social sentiment channel is not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are inferred. Sentiment is effectively a blind spot here; do not weight it.
| Scenario | Trigger conditions | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price oscillates above support 12.34, RSI14 (28.47) repairs off oversold, volume stays near the -9.37% below-average pace | Stabilization in the 12.34-14.17 zone with MACD histogram (-0.00) turning positive | Daily close decisively below 12.34 with expanding volume |
| Upside | Oversold cluster (RSI14 28.47, CCI20-107.48, lower-band touch) resolves into a mean-reversion bounce | Reclaim of MA5/MA10 (13.36/13.46), then MA20 (14.17); MACD line crossing above signal | Failure at MA5/MA10 and rollover back toward 12.34 |
| Downside | OBV slope (-665.29%) keeps pressuring; bearish MA order persists | Sustained break of 12.34 opening the path toward the 30-session low region (~12.69 and below) | Reclaim and hold of MA20 (14.17) flipping MA order |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Continued downtrend | Bearish MA order; price -9.31% vs MA20; MACD below zero | Close below support 12.34 | Watch 12.34 daily closes and MACD line vs signal |
| Negative earnings / weak fundamentals | Net income -9.55B, EPS -2.12, net margin -26.51%, PE -6.06 | Further margin deterioration in next report | Track gross/net margin trend; PB 1.65 vs BVPS 7.77 |
| Distribution pressure | OBV -497.4M, 20-session slope -665.29% | OBV makes new lows while price holds | Watch OBV vs price divergence |
| Catalyst blind spot | No news from configured source | Sudden headline with no prior signal | Re-poll news source; treat gaps as elevated event risk |
| Sentiment blind spot | Social not connected; no headline distribution | N/A (data absent) | Do not weight sentiment until a source is connected |
| Failed rebound | Oversold readings can persist in a downtrend | Rejection at MA5/MA10 (13.36/13.46) | Confirm any bounce with volume and MA reclaim |
MA5<MA20死叉，空头排列
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=28超卖
接近下轨，可能反弹
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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