迈瑞医疗
300760 · CN
I'm noticing a major disconnect between the valuation model and current price-the fair value sits around 61-96 CNY while the stock trades at 157.53, suggesting it's overvalued by over 50%. The technical indicators are pointing bullish, but the fundamentals tell a different story, so I need to make sure this tension comes through clearly in the report as I work through each section.# 300760 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 157.53 |
| Daily move | -0.85% |
| Overall score | 63/100 (Buy) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 63.80 / 68.87 (constructive, not extreme) |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | 3.41 / 1.91 / +1.49 (bullish) |
| Estimated support | CNY 133.87 (+15.02% away) |
| Estimated resistance | CNY 161.52 (+2.53% away) |
| 30-session range position | +85.74% (range 130.66-162.00) |
| Data confidence | Medium on technicals/valuation; Low on news/sentiment |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 154.90 / 153.07 / 147.69 / 148.39 | Full bullish stack; price +6.66% above MA20. Confirms uptrend. |
| RSI (14 / 6) | 63.80 / 68.87 | Constructive momentum, not yet overbought (<70 on RSI14). |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | 3.41 / 1.91 / +1.49 | Bullish: line above signal and above zero, histogram positive. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 79.66 / 74.37 / 90.23 | Constructive crossover, but J at 90.23 is elevated - near-term stretch risk. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 161.52 / 147.69 / 133.87 | Price near upper band (86% of band); band width expanding. |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 5.42 / +3.41% | Moderate volatility; roughly CNY 5.4 daily range as sizing reference. |
| OBV (value / 20-sess slope) | 43,761,967 / +264.77% | Accumulation improving; volume trend supports the move. |
| CCI20 | 133.46 | Above +100; signals strong upside momentum. |
Confirmed: The MA structure, MACD, OBV slope, and CCI all point the same direction - a momentum-led uptrend with improving accumulation. That alignment is the strongest part of the setup.
Conflicted: RSI and Bollinger context flag stretch. RSI6 (68.87) and KDJ-J (90.23) are elevated, and price sits near the upper Bollinger band. The strategy sub-scores echo this: MA交叉 70/100 (Buy) and MACD背离 85/100 (StrongBuy) are constructive, while RSI极值 (45/100, Hold, "RSI14=64偏高"), 布林带 (50/100, Hold, "near upper band, band widening"), and 量价关系 (55/100, Hold, "缩量回调, may stabilize") are neutral. Momentum is confirmed; extension risk is the counterweight.
Missing: No custom or supplementary indicators beyond the standard panel were supplied, so nothing additional is folded in here.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.46 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 4.76 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | N/A | StockKit scenario model | Low |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 61.69 / Base CNY 73.94 / Bull CNY 96.23 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -53.1% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 33.28B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 8.14B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 6.71 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 33.08 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +61.87% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +29.05% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
Note: The StockKit fair-value range and PEG proxy are internally computed scenario outputs derived from public financial history, not analyst consensus targets. The tension worth flagging is the gap between spot (CNY 157.53) and the StockKit base fair value (CNY 73.94), a -53.1% base fair-value gap. This is driven in part by the model's negative 5Y growth assumptions (Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00%). PEG proxy is N/A (Low confidence), so growth-adjusted valuation cannot be assessed here. The reported fundamentals (gross margin +61.87%, net margin +29.05%, PE 23.46) are Medium confidence and describe a profitable business; the valuation debate is about growth assumptions rather than current profitability.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Configured news source | No current news items available | With no confirmed headlines, catalyst timing cannot be mapped. Price action is running ahead of any documented news trigger in this dataset. |
Confirmed news: None supplied. Missing data: The entire news feed returned empty, so no earnings dates, corporate actions, or event catalysts can be cited. This section is Low confidence, and any narrative about "what's driving the move" would be unsupported. Monitoring the source for the first confirmed headline is itself a watch item.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are inferred because none are marked connected. Sentiment is effectively a blank input here - treat the technical and valuation sections as the load-bearing evidence, and do not read crowd positioning into the current move.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What confirms it | What invalidates it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price consolidates between MA20 (147.69) and resistance (161.52) as momentum stays constructive | Holds above MA5 (154.90) with MACD staying above zero and OBV slope positive | Loss of MA20 (147.69) or MACD histogram turning negative |
| Upside | Sustained close above the 161.52 watch level (Bollinger upper / resistance) on supportive volume | Break holds with volume returning above the 20-session average (12,025,449) and RSI14 pushing higher without immediate reversal | Rejection at 161.52 or a failed breakout back below the band |
| Downside | Rejection near the upper band with elevated KDJ-J (90.23) unwinding | Break below MA20 (147.69), then a move toward estimated support (133.87) | Reclaim of MA5/MA10 and MACD histogram re-expanding upward |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overbought stretch | RSI6 68.87, KDJ-J 90.23, price at 86% of Bollinger band | Momentum oscillators rolling over from elevated levels | Watch RSI14 crossing back below prior highs and KDJ K/D bearish cross |
| Resistance rejection | Price +2.53% from 161.52; only 85.74% into 30-session range | Failure to close above 161.52 | Track daily close vs 161.52 watch level |
| Volume not confirming | Current volume -6.51% vs 20-session average; 量价关系 55/100 Hold | Continued below-average volume into resistance | Compare session volume against 12,025,449 average |
| Valuation gap | StockKit base fair value 73.94 vs spot 157.53; base gap -53.1%; 5Y growth forecast negative in Base/Bear | Any earnings or guidance data that reinforces the model's negative growth path | Watch for first confirmed fundamental update (news feed currently empty) |
| Information blind spot | No news and no connected sentiment source supplied | A material headline appears with no prior signal | Monitor configured news/sentiment sources for first confirmed item |
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能增强
RSI14=64偏高
接近上轨，带宽扩张中
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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