中国建筑
601668 · CN
601668 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 4.61 |
| Daily move | -2.54% |
| Overall score | 37/100 (Sell) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 31.37 / 23.18 |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.05 / -0.04 / -0.00 |
| Estimated support | 4.64 |
| Estimated resistance | 4.86 |
| 30-session range position | +2.27% (near low; range 4.60-5.04) |
| Data confidence | Medium (technical/valuation); Low (news/sentiment) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 4.71 / 4.72 / 4.75 / 4.87 | Bearish alignment; price below all MAs, -2.91% vs MA20 |
| RSI (14/6) | 31.37 / 23.18 | Soft, not fully washed out; RSI6 deeper than RSI14 |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.05 / -0.04 / -0.00 | Bearish: line below signal, below zero; histogram near flat |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 27.00 / 31.41 / 18.17 | Soft/repairing; low but no confirmed cross up |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 4.86 / 4.75 / 4.64 | Near lower band (-13% of band); band width ~4.6% (very narrow) |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 0.07 / +1.52% | Low absolute volatility relative to price |
| OBV / 20-session slope | -1,438,700,698 / -49.78% | Distribution pressure; volume leaving on balance |
| CCI20 | -188.20 | Below -100; downside pressure / oversold territory |
What is confirmed: A coherent bearish trend signature. MA alignment, MACD configuration, and OBV slope all point the same way (StockKit MA交叉 10/100 StrongSell; MACD背离 20/100 Sell; 量价关系 35/100 Sell, price falling on +63.93% above-average volume).
What is conflicted: Momentum-oversold readings push against the trend. RSI14 at 31.37 (RSI极值 60/100 Buy), Bollinger lower-band tag with very narrow bands (布林带 70/100 Buy), CCI20 at -188.20, and a soft KDJ all suggest the move is stretched short-term, even while the trend score stays bearish. The narrow Bollinger width flags an imminent expansion without telling direction.
What is missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so this section reflects only the listed studies.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.9 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 0.38 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | N/A | StockKit scenario model | Low |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 8.64 / Base CNY 10.35 / Bull CNY 13.47 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +124.5% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 2.08T | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 39.07B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.94 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 12.01 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +7.93% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +3.20% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
Reading: Headline multiples are low (PE 4.9, PB 0.38 against book value per share of 12.01 versus a 4.61 price). The StockKit DCF scenario model implies a wide fair-value range of CNY 8.64-13.47 and a +124.5% base gap, but this is an internally computed forecast, not analyst consensus, and rests on a soft 5Y growth band (-8.00% to +2.00%). The contrast between thin margins (gross +7.93%, net +3.20%) and the large modeled gap warrants caution: the scenario output is sensitive to the negative-to-flat growth assumptions and should be treated as a model view, not a target. PEG proxy is N/A and carries Low confidence.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Headline coverage | Missing - no items from configured source | No confirmed catalysts to anchor near-term moves; price action is currently the primary signal |
Confirmed news: None available. No headlines were returned from the configured source, so no event-driven thesis can be built and no earnings date, rating, or corporate action is asserted here. This is a lower-confidence area of the brief.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Reddit, X, StockTwits, and local-forum readings are not connected and are not inferred. Sentiment is therefore non-informative for this brief.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price chops near 4.60-4.64 support with bearish trend intact (score 37/100, MA bearish alignment) | Hold of 4.60 range low, RSI stabilizing off 31.37, MACD histogram flattening (-0.00) | Decisive close below 4.60 or reclaim and hold above MA20 at 4.75 |
| Upside | Oversold mean-reversion from lower Bollinger band (-13% of band), RSI14 31.37, CCI20-188.20 | Reclaim of 4.64 support then MA20 (4.75), volume rotating from distribution (OBV slope improving from -49.78%) | Failure at 4.75 or renewed distribution on rallies |
| Downside | Range-low break with heavy supply (price -2.54% on +63.93% above-average volume) | Sustained trade below 4.60 with OBV slope staying negative | Quick recovery above 4.64 and band-width expansion resolving higher |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation lower | Bearish MA alignment, score 37/100 Sell, MACD below zero | Close below 4.60 range low | Watch the 4.60-4.64 zone daily |
| Distribution / supply pressure | OBV -1.44B, slope -49.78%, price drop on +63.93% above-avg volume | OBV slope deepening on down days | Track volume vs 20-session avg (188.3M) |
| Volatility expansion from narrow bands | Bollinger band width ~4.6% (very narrow), ATR14% +1.52% | Sharp move beyond 4.64 or 4.86 | Watch band width and ATR for breakout direction |
| Valuation model fragility | StockKit base gap +124.5% built on -4.00% base growth, net margin +3.20% | Growth assumptions worsening | Treat fair-value range as model output, re-check on new fundamentals |
| Information gaps | No news, no sentiment feed connected | New catalyst emerging unseen | Re-run once news/sentiment sources reconnect |
1. 4.60-4.64 support zone: does price hold above 4.64 or break the 4.60 range low. 2. MA20 at 4.75 as first reclaim hurdle on any bounce. 3. OBV 20-session slope (currently -49.78%): any improvement signals distribution easing. 4. Volume vs 20-session average (188.3M): confirm whether selling pressure persists above 1.6x. 5. RSI14 (31.37) and RSI6 (23.18): stabilization vs further deterioration. 6. Bollinger band width (~4.6%, very narrow): direction of the expected expansion. 7. News/sentiment feeds: monitor for any reconnection that adds confirmed catalysts to this currently data-thin area.
This brief uses only the supplied dataset. Technical and valuation inputs carry Medium confidence; the news and sentiment sections are Low confidence because no headlines or sentiment series were returned. StockKit fair-value range, base gap, PEG proxy, and growth forecasts are internally computed scenario outputs, not analyst consensus or guaranteed outcomes. All levels are watch levels for observation, not instructions, and nothing here is personalized investment advice.
MA5<MA20死叉，空头排列
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=31偏低
带宽4.6%极窄，即将突破，跌破下轨，短期超卖
价跌放量(1.6x)，抛压沉重
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.