保利发展
600048 · CN
600048 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 4.92 |
| Daily move | -3.15% |
| Strategy score | 43 / 100 (Signal: Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 24.75 / 16.10 |
| MACD line / signal / hist | -0.26 / -0.22 / -0.03 |
| Estimated support | 4.83 (+1.78% below price) |
| Estimated resistance | 6.01 (+22.10% above price) |
| 30-session range position | +0.00% (range 4.92 / 6.86) |
| Data confidence | Medium-low (no news, no sentiment) |
| Indicator | Reading | Signal read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 5.09 / 5.16 / 5.42 / 5.80 | Bearish alignment; price -9.23% below MA20 (StrongSell, 10/100) |
| RSI (14 / 6) | 24.75 / 16.10 | Deeply oversold; rebound watch (StrongBuy, 85/100) |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.26 / -0.22 / -0.03 | Below zero, bearish cross, momentum weakening (Sell, 20/100) |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 8.10 / 10.01 / 4.28 | Soft / still repairing at the low end |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 6.01 / 5.42 / 4.83 | Near lower band (~7% of band width) (Buy, 60/100) |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 0.15 / +2.96% | Contained daily volatility |
| OBV (level / 20-sess slope) | -686,152,899 / -223.45% | Distribution pressure visible |
| CCI20 | -117.37 | Below -100; downside pressure / oversold |
Confirmed: the trend-following block agrees on weakness. Bearish MA alignment, a sub-zero MACD cross, CCI below -100, and a falling OBV slope all point the same direction, which is why the composite trend reads bear.
Conflicted: the mean-reversion block disagrees with the trend block. RSI14 (24.75), RSI6 (16.10), KDJ J (4.28), and price pinned to the lower Bollinger band all flag oversold conditions, scoring the rebound case (RSI 85/100, Bollinger 60/100). The volume-price read sits in the middle: volume is -7.86% versus the 20-session average, which the model treats as a lighter pullback that "may stabilise" (Hold, 55/100). So the tension is genuine, a stretched downtrend that is oversold but not yet showing a confirmed reversal.
Missing: no custom indicators were supplied, so nothing is folded in here beyond the standard panel.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 54.67 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 0.3 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 0.83 / Base CNY 0.99 / Bull CNY 1.29 | StockKit DCF scenario model (internal forecast, not consensus) | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -79.9% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 308.14B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 1.03B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.09 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 16.21 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +13.50% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +2.60% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
The picture is mixed. A high PE of 54.67 sits against a low PB of 0.3, consistent with compressed net income (CNY 1.03B on CNY 308.14B revenue, a +2.60% net margin and EPS of 0.09) against a book value per share of 16.21. The StockKit DCF scenario range (Bear 0.83 / Base 0.99 / Bull 1.29) implies a base fair-value gap of -79.9% versus the 4.92 price, and the 5-year growth forecast is negative in the base case (-4.00%). These fair-value and growth rows are internally computed scenario outputs, not analyst consensus targets, and should be read as model views rather than price targets. EV/EBITDA, PEG proxy, dividend yield, market cap, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Status | Detail |
|---|---|
| Confirmed news | None. No current news items were available from the configured source. |
| Missing data | Headline coverage is unavailable for this symbol; no catalysts can be dated or assessed. |
There are no confirmed headlines to interpret, so no catalyst can be weighted here. This is a data gap, not evidence of absence. The income data references an AkShare report period of 2025-12-31, but no earnings-date or event confirmation was supplied, so it is not treated as a scheduled catalyst. Confidence for this section is low.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned. Social channels are not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are inferred. Sentiment cannot be scored and adds no signal to this brief.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the 4.83 support / lower-band zone and chops near the bottom of the 30-session range | RSI lifting off 24.75, KDJ J turning up from 4.28, volume stabilising near the 20-session average | Sustained close below 4.83, or OBV slope deepening from -223.45% |
| Upside | Oversold mean-reversion bounce from the lower Bollinger band (4.83) | Reclaim of MA5 (5.09) then MA10 (5.16), MACD histogram (-0.03) turning positive, expanding volume | Failure to clear MA5, RSI rolling back over below 30 |
| Downside | Loss of the 4.83 floor extends the bear trend (price already -9.23% vs MA20) | Daily close under 4.83 on rising volume, MACD line falling further below signal (-0.26 vs -0.22) | Reclaim and hold above 4.83, RSI recovering above 30 |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend continuation | Bearish MA alignment, MACD below zero (-0.26), CCI20-117.37, price at bottom of 30-session range | Close below support 4.83 | Watch the 4.83 daily close; track MACD histogram for further widening |
| Oversold trap (no reversal) | RSI/KDJ deeply oversold but trend block still bearish (score 43/100, Hold) | RSI fails to lift off 24.75 while price drifts lower | Confirm bounce only on MA5 (5.09) reclaim with volume |
| Distribution pressure | OBV at -686,152,899 with 20-session slope -223.45% | OBV slope deepens despite flat price | Watch OBV trend versus price for non-confirmation |
| Valuation / earnings weakness | PE 54.67, net margin +2.60%, base 5Y growth -4.00%, base fair-value gap -79.9% | Further margin or growth deterioration in next report | Treat scenario fair value as model view; revisit on confirmed financials |
| Data-gap risk | No news, no sentiment feed (both Low confidence) | A catalyst lands unmodelled here | Re-check news/sentiment sources before acting on technicals alone |
MA5<MA20死叉，空头排列
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=25超卖，短期极度超卖
接近下轨，可能反弹
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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