保利发展
600048 · CN
600048 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 5.11 |
| Daily move | -2.67% |
| Overall score | 57/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 52.17 / 48.33 (neutral) |
| MACD line / signal / hist | 0.06 / 0.02 / 0.04 (bullish config) |
| Estimated support | 4.56 (+10.76% below spot) |
| Estimated resistance | 5.41 (+5.95% above spot) |
| 30-session range position | +67.42% (range 4.51-5.40) |
| Data confidence | Medium (technicals), Low (news/sentiment) |
| Indicator | Reading | State |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 5.24 / 5.15 / 4.99 / 5.25 | Mixed alignment; MA5>MA10>MA20 but MA60 (5.25) sits above the stack |
| RSI (14/6) | 52.17 / 48.33 | Neutral momentum |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | 0.06 / 0.02 / 0.04 | Bullish configuration, above zero line; momentum described as weakening |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 62.40 / 70.61 / 46.00 | Soft / still repairing (K below D, low J) |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 5.41 / 4.99 / 4.56 | Mid-band zone, ~64% of band; bandwidth expanding |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 0.17 / +3.40% | Moderate volatility relative to price |
| OBV (level / 20d slope) | -839,982,380 / +39.67% | Level negative but accumulation slope improving |
| CCI20 | 65.98 | Inside neutral band |
Confirmed: The trend-following block agrees on a constructive bias. MA5>MA10>MA20, MACD is above zero in a golden-cross configuration, and OBV's 20-session slope is rising +39.67%, consistent with the "accumulation improving" read. Price at +2.47% over MA20 supports the bull trend label.
Conflicted: Momentum and near-term structure disagree with the trend block. MACD histogram is positive but momentum is flagged as weakening; KDJ is soft (K 62.40 below D 70.61, J at 46.00); and MA60 (5.25) sitting above the shorter averages leaves the alignment "mixed" rather than fully stacked. Most importantly, today's -2.67% move came on volume at 1.1x the 20-session average, which the 量价关系 component scores as heavy selling pressure (35/100). RSI (52) and CCI (65.98) are both mid-range and offer no directional edge.
Missing: No custom indicators were supplied beyond the standard panel, so none are folded in here. There is no intraday or multi-timeframe data to corroborate the daily signals.
Rows marked StockKit scenario model below are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. The fair-value range and its gap should be read as model output only.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 56.78 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 0.32 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 0.83 / Base CNY 0.99 / Bull CNY 1.29 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -80.6% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 308.14B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 1.03B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.09 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 16.21 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +13.50% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +2.60% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
Note on internal divergence: the StockKit DCF base fair value (CNY 0.99) implies a -80.6% gap to the CNY 5.11 spot, while PB is only 0.32 against a stated book value per share of 16.21. These two supplied readings point in opposite directions, and the DCF is built on negative-to-flat 5Y growth assumptions (Bear -8.00% to Bull +2.00%). Both are model outputs computed from public history, not consensus targets, so this section carries lower practical confidence than the technical panel. PEG proxy was N/A and is omitted; EV/EBITDA, market cap, dividend yield, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Configured news source | No current news items available |
Confirmed news: none. The configured source returned no headlines for 600048, so there is no confirmed catalyst to anchor a near-term view. Because no dated events (earnings, disclosures, ratings) were supplied, no timeline can be constructed without inventing facts. This is a low-confidence section by absence of data; monitoring should rely on the technical and volume triggers in Sections 7-9 until a headline appears.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned. Social sentiment is not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum reading is drawn. The sentiment radar is effectively dark and should not be treated as either supportive or negative; it is simply unavailable.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the MA20 / mid-Bollinger zone (~4.99) with neutral RSI (52) | Continued OBV slope improvement (+39.67%) and price consolidating 4.99-5.41 without heavy down-volume | A close below 4.99 accompanied by rising volume, echoing today's 1.1x down-volume flag |
| Upside | Reclaim and hold above MA5 (5.24) and MA60 (5.25) toward resistance 5.41 | MACD histogram re-expanding above zero, KDJ repairing (K crossing back above D), volume expanding on up days | Rejection at the 5.41 upper-Bollinger / resistance watch level, or MACD momentum continuing to fade |
| Downside | Loss of MA20 (4.99) with sustained selling pressure | Move toward estimated support 4.56 (lower Bollinger) and 30-session low near 4.51; OBV slope rolling over | Quick recovery back above 4.99 on stabilizing volume, restoring the mid-band hold |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price-volume divergence | 量价关系 35/100 (Sell); -2.67% on 1.1x average volume | Further down sessions on above-average volume | Track daily volume vs the 20-session average (144.4M) |
| Momentum fade | MACD momentum flagged weakening; KDJ soft (K 62.40 < D 70.61) | Histogram (0.04) rolling toward zero, KDJ failing to repair | Watch MACD histogram and KDJ K/D crossover daily |
| Overhead resistance | Price 5.11 below MA5 (5.24), MA60 (5.25) and resistance 5.41 | Repeated rejection in the 5.24-5.41 band | Note reaction at MA5/MA60 cluster and 5.41 watch level |
| Valuation uncertainty | PE 56.78 high vs PB 0.32 low; DCF base gap -80.6% on negative growth assumptions | New disclosures shifting the earnings/book picture | Re-check valuation inputs when fresh financials post |
| Data gaps | No news, no sentiment feed connected | A catalyst emerging with no lead-time from feeds | Manually check for company disclosures given feed silence |
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI14=52中性
在通道中部，带宽扩张中
价跌放量(1.1x)，抛压沉重
Research boundary
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