中芯国际
688981 · CN
688981 Research Preview **中芯国际 (SMIC) | A-Share, STAR Market | Price: CNY 140.70 | As of 2026-06-21**
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| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Last price (CNY) | 140.70 |
| Daily move | +4.45% |
| Day range (CNY) | 132.88-144.63 |
| Volume (shares) | 12,449,371,400 |
| Vol vs 20-session avg | +13.77% |
| Overall strategy score | 54 / 100 |
| Signal / Trend | Hold / Consolidation |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 59.82 / 70.61 |
| MACD histogram | −0.27 (bearish) |
| Estimated support (CNY) | 116.12 (−17.47% from price) |
| Estimated resistance (CNY) | 153.93 (+9.40% from price) |
| 30-session range (CNY) | 112.68-159.05 |
| Position in 30-session range | 60.43% |
| Data confidence | Medium (technical) / Low (news & sentiment) |
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| Indicator | Reading | State | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA5 / MA10 / MA20 / MA60 | 132.19 / 129.03 / 135.02 / 117.46 | Bullish stack | All four MAs in ascending order; price (+4.21% vs MA20) is above the mid-term average. MA5 < MA20 death-cross sub-score (40/100) reflects a recent short-term hesitation rather than a structural break. |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 59.82 / 70.61 | Constructive, not extreme | RSI14 at 60 is neutral territory; RSI6 at 70.61 approaches the conventional overbought threshold, consistent with the session's sharp move. No extreme reading either way. |
| MACD line / signal / histogram | 2.38 / 2.65 / −0.27 | Bearish MACD configuration | MACD line remains above zero (bullish medium-term), but the signal line has crossed above it, producing a negative histogram. Momentum is decelerating even as price rises - a mild bearish divergence to watch. |
| KDJ K / D / J | 68.82 / 50.91 / 104.65 | Extended / overheating risk | J-value above 100 is a classic short-term overbought signal on this indicator. Historically this precedes a pause or pullback; it does not, by itself, negate the broader trend. |
| Bollinger Bands (upper / mid / lower) | 153.93 / 135.02 / 116.12 | Mid-band zone (65% of band) | Price is between the mid-band and upper band. Band width (CNY 37.81) implies meaningful volatility. Upper band at 153.93 is the technical resistance; lower band at 116.12 aligns with estimated support. |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 7.71 / +5.48% | Elevated daily volatility | An ATR equal to 5.48% of price means a single session's typical range exceeds CNY 7. Position sizing and stop placement should account for this range. |
| OBV / 20-session slope | 595,381,631 / +90.54% | Accumulation improving | A strongly positive OBV slope confirms that rising price sessions are accompanied by heavier volume than declining sessions - the most constructive single signal in this panel (volume/price score: 75/100). |
| CCI20 | 39.60 | Neutral band | CCI inside ±100 is considered neutral; no overbought or oversold extreme is registered here, providing no directional confirmation. |
Confirmed: Bullish MA stack; OBV accumulation; price above MA20. Conflicted: Bullish price action vs. bearish MACD histogram; strong daily candle vs. KDJ overheating. Missing / Low confidence: No custom momentum oscillators, no options flow, no institutional positioning data.
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| Metric | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 223.33× | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| PB | 7.52× | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| EPS (CNY) | 0.63 | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| Book value per share (CNY) | 18.72 | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 67.32B | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 5.04B | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| Gross margin | 21.48% | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| Net margin | 9.05% | AkShare THS (period: 2025-12-31) | Medium |
| StockKit fair-value range (CNY) | Bear 5.79 / Base 6.94 / Bull 9.03 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | −95.1% vs current price | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear −8% / Base −4% / Bull +2% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
Notes on valuation: The PE of 223× reflects very thin current profitability relative to the market capitalisation implied by the A-share price. The StockKit DCF outputs (Bear CNY 5.79 - Bull CNY 9.03) are internally computed from public financial history using scenario growth rates of −8% to +2%; they are not analyst consensus targets and should not be treated as such. The ~95% gap between the DCF base case and the current traded price is substantial. It implies the market is pricing in a significant long-term earnings recovery (or strategic/policy premium) not captured by recent financial history. This part of the analysis carries lower confidence due to the absence of forward consensus estimates and sell-side targets in the supplied dataset. PEG proxy was not computable (N/A) and has been omitted.
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Confirmed news: None. No headlines were returned from the configured news source.
Implication of missing news: With no confirmed catalysts, the session's 4.45% gain and elevated volume cannot be attributed to a specific identifiable event from this dataset. Possible explanations - sector rotation, policy newsflow, or macro tailwinds in the semiconductor space - cannot be confirmed or weighted without a live news feed. This section carries low confidence. Investors monitoring this name should independently verify whether any regulatory, earnings, or geopolitical developments drove today's session.
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| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines returned | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No conclusion drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are presented, as none of those sources are marked as connected in the supplied data. Sentiment analysis for 688981 carries low confidence in its entirety for this report.
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| Scenario | Trigger Conditions | What Would Confirm It | What Would Invalidate It |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Base - Consolidation** (most consistent with 54/100 score) | Price holds between MA20 (135.02) and upper Bollinger (153.93); MACD histogram moves toward zero but does not meaningfully expand | Volume normalises toward the 20-session average; RSI14 stays 50-65; KDJ-J reverts below 100 | A decisive close above 153.93 on strong volume (upside break) or a close below MA20 on expanding volume (downside break) |
| **Upside - Breakout** | Sustained close above resistance at CNY 153.93; volume materially above 20-session average; MACD histogram turns positive | MACD line widens above signal; OBV slope remains strongly positive; RSI14 moves above 65 without immediate reversal | Price fails to hold above 153.93 within 1-2 sessions; volume collapses on the close above resistance |
| **Downside - Pullback to support** | MACD histogram deepens negative; KDJ death-cross (K crosses below D); price breaks below MA20 at 135.02 | Close below MA10 (129.03) with above-average volume; OBV slope flattens or turns negative | Price recaptures MA20 promptly on volume; MACD histogram reverses toward zero |
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| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation disconnect | PE 223×; StockKit DCF base value CNY 6.94 vs market price CNY 140.70 (−95.1% gap) | Any deterioration in earnings growth expectations or macro headwinds to the semiconductor cycle | Watch quarterly earnings for revenue and net margin trajectory; monitor analyst consensus updates when available |
| Short-term overheating | KDJ-J at 104.65 (above 100); RSI6 at 70.61 | KDJ-J stays elevated; RSI6 crosses above 80; single-session candle exhaustion pattern | Watch KDJ K/D crossover; compare next-session volume to today's |
| MACD momentum deceleration | MACD histogram at −0.27 (negative despite rising price) | Histogram deepens; MACD line crosses below signal line with wider gap | Track daily MACD readings; a sustained negative histogram widening would increase downside scenario probability |
| Resistance at Bollinger upper / 30-session range high | Upper Bollinger at 153.93; 30-session high at 159.05 - price is 9.4% below resistance | Failed breakout attempt; shooting-star or high-volume reversal candle near 153.93 | Watch price action and volume profile on any approach to the 153-159 zone |
| Absence of news/catalyst confirmation | No news data returned; no social sentiment connected | Price reverses without recoverable fundamental anchor | Independently verify today's driver before assigning breakout probability; reconnect news feed if possible |
| Geopolitical / export-control risk (structural) | SMIC operates in a highly regulated sector with known international supply-chain constraints; this is widely documented public information | New regulatory announcements, export-control tightening, or supply-chain disruptions | Monitor policy channels and official SMIC disclosures |
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1. Resistance test at CNY 153.93 - Watch whether price approaches and either sustains above or reverses from the Bollinger upper band / estimated resistance. This is the single most decisive near-term level. 2. MACD histogram direction - A turn from −0.27 back toward zero (or positive) would materially improve the technical picture; further widening into negative territory would increase pullback probability. 3. KDJ normalisation - Monitor whether K/D remain in a bullish configuration or produce a death-cross; J-value returning below 80 would reduce overheating risk. 4. Volume trend - Today's volume was +13.77% above the 20-session average. Watch whether subsequent sessions sustain above-average volume on up-days (OBV accumulation continuation) or see volume dry up (consolidation or distribution signal). 5. MA20 support (CNY 135.02) - In a pullback scenario, the 20-day moving average is the first meaningful structural watch level. A high-volume break below it would escalate the downside scenario. 6. News / catalyst identification - The session's 4.45% gain is unattributed in this dataset. Independently confirm whether a fundamental driver exists; the absence of a confirmed catalyst is itself a risk factor. 7. Earnings and margin data - Given PE of 223× and a net margin of 9.05% on CNY 67.32B revenue, any forward guidance or quarterly update that alters the earnings trajectory is the highest-impact fundamental event to monitor.
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This brief is produced exclusively from the dataset supplied to StockKit's research engine as of 2026-06-21. Financial statement figures are sourced from AkShare THS for the period ending 2025-12-31 and carry medium confidence. Fair-value and growth forecasts are StockKit scenario model outputs derived from public financial history; they are not sell-side analyst consensus estimates and should not be interpreted as price targets. No news or social-sentiment data was available for this symbol; those sections carry low confidence. This document is a research preview for informational purposes only. It does not constitute personalised investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or a guarantee of any outcome. All scenario levels are watch levels, not instructions. Independent verification of all data points is recommended before making any investment decision.
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能增强
RSI14=60中性
在通道中部
价涨量增(1.1x)，走势确认，连续放量上涨
Research boundary
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