三一重工
600031 · CN
600031 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 18.37 |
| Daily move | -2.86% |
| Strategy score | 53/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Consolidation |
| RSI14 | 43.98 (soft, not washed out) |
| MACD | Line -0.24 / Signal -0.30 / Hist +0.06 (below zero, golden cross) |
| Estimated support | 17.56 (+4.42% to spot) |
| Estimated resistance | 19.69 (+7.18% to spot) |
| 30-session range position | +19.41% (range 17.38-22.48) |
| Data confidence | Moderate (technicals complete; news/sentiment absent) |
| Indicator | Reading | State |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 18.81 / 18.92 / 18.62 / 19.59 | Mixed alignment; MA5>MA20 golden cross, but price below MA20 and MA60 |
| RSI (14/6) | 43.98 / 41.82 | Soft but not washed out; sub-50, no oversold extreme |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.24 / -0.30 / +0.06 | Golden cross with positive histogram, but both lines below zero; momentum weakening |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 38.95 / 47.72 / 21.42 | Soft / still repairing; K below D, low J |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 19.69 / 18.62 / 17.56 | Mid-band zone, 38% of band width |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 0.82 / +4.48% | Moderate volatility relative to price |
| OBV (value / 20d slope) | -6,114,169 / +98.97% | Negative level but accumulation slope improving |
| CCI20 | -21.09 | Inside neutral band |
What is confirmed: The price is consolidating in the middle of its Bollinger range with moderate ATR. OBV slope and the MACD golden cross both point to improving near-term internals.
What is conflicted: Trend signals disagree. The MA5>MA20 golden cross is constructive, yet price sits below MA20 and well below MA60, and both MACD lines remain under zero with weakening momentum. KDJ is still repairing while RSI is soft, so short-term oscillators have not yet confirmed an upturn.
What is missing: No custom indicators were supplied, so this panel reflects only the standard set above.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.68 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 1.86 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 1.04 | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 19.72 / Base CNY 27.11 / Bull CNY 34.07 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +47.6% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 89.70B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 8.41B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.98 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 9.85 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +27.48% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +10.50% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
The PEG proxy (1.04), fair-value range, base fair-value gap, and 5Y growth forecast are StockKit scenario-model outputs computed from public financial history, not analyst consensus targets. The PEG proxy near 1.0 suggests the PE of 18.68 is broadly in line with the modeled base growth assumption of +18%. Reported margins (gross +27.48%, net +10.50%) and EPS of 0.98 are drawn from the AkShare THS abstract for the 2025-12-31 period. Dividend yield, EV/EBITDA, and a separate 52-week range row were not supplied and are omitted.
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Configured news source | No current news items available | No confirmed headlines to assess; catalyst read is data-limited and low confidence |
Confirmed news: None available from the configured source at the time of this brief. No earnings dates, ratings actions, or corporate events can be cited without supplied data, so this section adds no unsupported facts. The absence of news means upcoming price behavior is more likely to be driven by technical levels and broader market flow than by company-specific catalysts visible in this dataset.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are available because those sources are not marked connected. The sentiment picture is therefore inconclusive and should be treated as low confidence.
| Scenario | Trigger conditions | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (consolidation) | Price holds the 17.56-19.69 band; score steady near 53/100 | Continued mid-band trade, OBV slope staying positive (+98.97%), RSI14 stabilizing near 44 | Decisive break of either band edge with rising volume |
| Upside | Reclaim of MA20 (18.62) then MA60 (19.59); MACD lines crossing above zero | Move toward resistance 19.69 with KDJ repairing higher and volume returning above the 20-session average (108.4M) | Failure at MA60 and rollover of the MACD histogram back negative |
| Downside | Loss of support 17.56 (lower Bollinger band) | Break below 17.56 toward the 30-session low of 17.38, RSI sliding toward oversold | Quick reclaim of 17.56 and the mid-band on improving OBV |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend not yet confirmed | Price -1.36% below MA20 and below MA60 (19.59); both MACD lines below zero | Sustained trade below MA20 | Watch daily closes versus MA20 (18.62) |
| Momentum fade | MACD histogram only +0.06; KDJ still repairing (J 21.42) | Histogram turning negative again | Track MACD histogram and KDJ K/D crossover |
| Thin volume on the pullback | Current volume -28.73% vs 20-session average | Continued low volume into a breakdown | Compare daily volume to 108.4M average |
| Catalyst blind spot | No news items from configured source | Unscheduled company or sector headline | Re-check news feed daily |
| Sentiment blind spot | NewsAPI no headlines; social not connected | Sentiment source reconnecting with skewed reading | Monitor source status for reconnection |
| Volatility | ATR14 at +4.48% of price | Range expansion beyond 0.82 daily | Size watch levels to ATR, not fixed ticks |
1. Support 17.56 - confirm daily closes hold above the lower Bollinger band (highest priority). 2. MA20 at 18.62 - watch for a reclaim that would support the upside path. 3. MACD histogram (+0.06) and zero-line - watch for expansion above zero or a relapse negative. 4. KDJ K/D (38.95 / 47.72) - watch for a bullish crossover to confirm repair. 5. Volume vs 20-session average (108.4M) - watch for a return of participation, currently -28.73%. 6. Resistance 19.69 and MA60 19.59 - watch reaction at this overhead cluster. 7. News and sentiment feeds - re-check daily for reconnection, since both are currently empty.
This brief uses only the supplied dataset. News and sentiment sources returned no data, lowering confidence in those sections, and all valuation rows are Medium confidence. StockKit scenario-model figures are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus. Levels are framed as watch levels for observation, not instructions, and nothing here is personalized investment advice or a promise of returns.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=44中性
在通道中部
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
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