StockKit ResearchEQUITY RESEARCH BRIEF
601398 · CN · Cached
Generated 2026-06-19 01:45 UTC

工商银行

601398 · CN

¥7.16
-2.72%
Technical posture
Neutral
Strategy score
47 / 100
Trend
consolidation
Data confidence
Medium
Research view

601398 Research Preview

1. Bottom line - Current setup: 工商银行 (601398) is in a consolidation phase. Price at CNY 7.16 sits below all shorter moving averages (MA5 7.46, MA10 7.50, MA20 7.35) after a -2.72% session, and the StockKit strategy score is 47/100 with a Hold signal. The KDJ J-line at -9.92 flags a washed-out, rebound-watch condition, but a single-session 1.3x volume expansion on a down day points to active selling pressure. - Confidence: Medium overall. Technical and valuation inputs are well populated, but news and sentiment feeds returned nothing for this symbol, so any catalyst- or flow-driven view is low confidence and explicitly flagged below. - Most important level/condition to monitor: The estimated support at 6.95 (also the lower Bollinger band). Holding above it keeps the rebound-watch thesis alive; losing it on sustained volume would invalidate the consolidation read.
02Key data snapshot
MetricReading
PriceCNY 7.16
Daily move-2.72%
Strategy score47/100 (Hold)
TrendConsolidation
RSI14 / RSI640.91 / 28.63
MACD (line / signal / hist)0.03 / 0.04 / -0.01
Estimated support6.95 (+2.96% below price)
Estimated resistance7.76 (+8.37% above price)
30-session range position+21.52% (range 6.99-7.78)
Data confidenceMedium (technical/valuation); Low (news/sentiment)
03Technical indicator panel
IndicatorReadingRead
MA (5/10/20/60)7.46 / 7.50 / 7.35 / 7.40Mixed alignment; MA5>MA20 golden cross noted, but price is -2.64% below MA20
RSI (14/6)40.91 / 28.63Soft but not washed out; fast RSI6 near oversold
MACD0.03 / 0.04 / -0.01Bearish configuration (death cross) above the zero line; momentum fading
KDJ (K/D/J)34.73 / 57.06 / -9.92Washed-out J-line; rebound-watch setup
Bollinger (U/M/L)7.76 / 7.35 / 6.95Mid-band zone, ~26% of band width
ATR140.17 (+2.39% of price)Moderate daily range expectation
OBV402,159,346 (+245.14% 20-session slope)Accumulation improving over the medium window
CCI20-54.20Inside neutral band

Confirmed: The MA5>MA20 golden cross and improving OBV slope (+245.14%) both point to underlying medium-term accumulation, consistent with a consolidation rather than breakdown.

Conflicted: Momentum signals disagree with structure. MACD shows a bearish death cross while still above zero, KDJ is washed out with a deeply negative J-line (rebound bias), and RSI6 (28.63) is far weaker than RSI14 (40.91). Price below MA5/MA10/MA20 also conflicts with the golden-cross read. This mix supports the Hold/consolidation conclusion rather than a directional call.

Missing: No custom indicators were supplied, so none are folded in here.

04Valuation matrix
AxisReadingSourceConfidence
PE7.16AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
PB0.65AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
PEG proxy10.51StockKit scenario modelMedium
StockKit fair value rangeBear CNY 10.38 / Base CNY 13.54 / Bull CNY 17.48StockKit DCF scenario modelMedium
Base fair-value gap+89.1%StockKit DCF scenario modelMedium
5Y growth forecastBear -5.32% / Base +0.68% / Bull +6.68%StockKit scenario modelMedium
RevenueCNY 838.27BAkShare THS financial abstractMedium
Net incomeCNY 368.56BAkShare THS financial abstractMedium
EPS1AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
Book value per share11.06AkShare THS financial abstractMedium
Net margin+38.21%AkShare THS financial abstractMedium

Note: PEG proxy and the fair-value range are StockKit scenario model outputs computed from public financial history, not analyst consensus targets. The large base fair-value gap (+89.1%) is a model-implied figure and should be read alongside the flat base 5Y growth forecast (+0.68%) and the high PEG proxy (10.51), which temper the growth case. Reported PB of 0.65 against book value per share of 11.06 reflects the below-book pricing typical of large state-owned banks. Gross margin was N/A and is omitted.

05News and catalyst timeline
ItemStatus
Headline coverageNo current news items were available from the configured source

Confirmed news: None available. No headlines were returned for 601398, so no event-driven catalysts can be assessed. This is a data gap, not evidence of an absence of activity. Any near-term view here is low confidence. No earnings dates, ratings, or corporate actions have been supplied or assumed.

06Sentiment radar
SourceStatusReadingConfidence
NewsAPI headline coverageNo headlinesNo source distribution availableLow
Social sentimentNot connectedNo social sentiment conclusion is drawnLow

No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. No social channels are marked connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or forum readings are inferred. Sentiment confidence is Low across the board.

07Scenario framework
ScenarioTrigger conditionsWhat confirms itWhat invalidates it
Base (consolidation)Price holds the 6.95-7.76 band; score stays near 47/100Sideways action between support and MA20 (7.35) with RSI14 holding ~41Decisive close beyond either band edge on rising volume
Upside (rebound)KDJ washed-out J-line (-9.92) and improving OBV (+245.14%) resolve higherReclaim of MA20 (7.35) then MA5 (7.46), MACD histogram turning positiveFailure to reclaim MA20; renewed price-down-on-volume days
Downside (breakdown)Loss of estimated support 6.95 / lower Bollinger bandSustained close below 6.95 with continued 1.3x+ down-volumeQuick recovery back above 6.95 and into the mid-band
08Risk matrix
RiskEvidenceTriggerMonitoring action
Selling pressure on down daysPrice-down-on-volume, 1.3x average; volume +33.09% vs 20-session avgRepeat down sessions with above-average volumeWatch volume vs the 338.8M 20-session average each session
Momentum rolloverMACD death cross (hist -0.01); RSI6 28.63 weaker than RSI14MACD histogram stays negative / widensTrack MACD histogram and RSI6 daily
Support failurePrice +2.96% above support 6.95, which equals lower Bollinger bandClose below 6.95Set 6.95 as the key watch level
Data-gap riskNo news and no sentiment feed returnedNew headline or feed reconnect changes the pictureRe-check configured news/sentiment sources
Valuation model uncertainty+89.1% base fair-value gap vs +0.68% base 5Y growth; PEG proxy 10.51Growth assumptions diverge from reported flat trajectoryTreat StockKit DCF outputs as model scenarios, not targets
09Seven-day watch checklist

1. Estimated support 6.95 (also lower Bollinger band) - primary level; watch for holds or breaks. 2. Daily volume vs the 338.8M 20-session average - confirm whether down-volume selling persists or fades. 3. MA20 at 7.35 - first overhead reclaim level for the rebound case. 4. MA5 (7.46) and MA10 (7.50) - secondary reclaim levels confirming a momentum shift. 5. MACD histogram - watch for a flip from -0.01 toward positive. 6. KDJ J-line (-9.92) and RSI6 (28.63) - watch for rebound-confirming turns from washed-out readings. 7. News and sentiment feeds - monitor for reconnection or new headlines, since both currently return no data.

Information-use note

This brief is built only from the supplied StockKit dataset and is a public-facing research preview, not personalized investment advice. Technical and valuation inputs are Medium confidence; news and sentiment are Low confidence due to empty feeds. Levels cited are watch levels for monitoring, not instructions to act, and no returns are promised or implied.

Strategy factors
MA交叉Constructive
60

MA5>MA20金叉

MACD背离Neutral
40

MACD死叉,MACD在零轴上方,动能减弱

RSI极值Neutral
50

RSI14=41中性

布林带Neutral
50

在通道中部

量价关系Weak
35

价跌放量(1.3x),抛压沉重

Research boundary

StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.

Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.