PGR

PGR · US

$215.76

+0.90%

Technical posture

Neutral

Strategy score

52 / 100

Trend

bull

Data confidence

High

Research view

PGR Research Preview

1. Bottom line - PGR (PGR) is trading at 215.76, with a current daily move of +0.90%. - The StockKit strategy score is 52/100, creating a neutral research posture with bullish alignment (ma5 > ma10 > ma20 > ma60). - The most important near-term watch zone is support at 202.88 and resistance at 220.46; price is +5.97% from support and +2.18% from resistance.

2. Key data snapshot | Item | Reading | Interpretation | |---|---:|---| | Current price | 215.76 | Daily move +0.90% | | Strategy score | 52/100 | Hold, trend: bull | | MA structure | Bullish alignment (MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60) | The short-term moving average is above the medium-term moving average, which points to a firmer near-term structure. | | RSI14 | 47.77 | Neutral momentum | | MACD | -0.14 histogram | Bearish MACD configuration | | Support / resistance | 202.88 / 220.46 | Watch these levels for confirmation or failure | | 30-session range | 203.08 / 239.38 | Price sits at +34.93% of the range | | Volume check | -49.83% vs 20D avg | Confirmation quality depends on volume follow-through | | ATR14 / price | +2.31% | Proxy for short-term volatility risk |

3. Technical indicator panel - Trend: The short-term moving average is above the medium-term moving average, which points to a firmer near-term structure. - Momentum: RSI14 is not giving an extreme signal, so confirmation from price structure matters more than momentum alone. - MACD: histogram is -0.14, while MACD line / signal are -0.38 / -0.24. - KDJ: K / D / J are 50.40 / 49.13 / 52.94; KDJ constructive crossover. - Bollinger: Mid-band zone (73% of band); upper / middle / lower are 220.46 / 211.67 / 202.88. - ATR / OBV / CCI: ATR14 is 4.90 (+2.31% of price), OBV slope is +34.20%, and CCI20 is 29.50. - Levels: estimated support / resistance are 202.88 / 220.46; recent 30-session range is 203.08 / 239.38.

4. Valuation matrix | Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence | |---|---|---|---| | PE | 11.22 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium | | PB | 3.70 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium | | Price / sales | 1.45 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium | | EV/EBITDA | N/A | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Low | | PEG proxy | 0.62 | StockKit scenario model | Medium | | StockKit fair value range | Bear $385.51 / Base $530.15 / Bull $666.1 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium | | Base fair-value gap | +145.7% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium | | 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium | | Revenue | $87.67B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High | | Net income | $11.31B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High | | Market cap | $126.89B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium | | Balance sheet context | Assets $124.92B / Equity $34.33B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |

Notes: - SEC CIK: 0000080661; company: PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/. - Latest annual income-statement period used where available: 2025-12-31. - PEG and fair-value range are StockKit scenario outputs computed from reported fundamentals; they are not analyst consensus targets.

5. News and catalyst timeline 1. Relatório usado por Moraes contra Mendonça não segue padrão de inteligência - Metropoles.com 2. Relatório usado por Moraes para acusar Mendonça não segue parâmetros de inteligência, diz associação - Terra.com.br 3. Delegados da PF pedem que Gonet se declare impedido para apurar relatório de Mendonça que cita o PGR - Noticiabrasil.net.br 4. Delegados da PF pedem que PGR se declare impedido no caso Master - Ig.com.br

6. Sentiment radar 5 recent headlines available; no provider-level sentiment score was supplied.

Source	Status	Reading	Confidence
NewsAPI headline coverage	5 headlines	Terra.com.br x2, Metropoles.com x1, Noticiabrasil.net.br x1	Medium
Social sentiment	Not connected	No social sentiment conclusion is drawn	Low

Notes: - No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol.

7. Scenario framework | Scenario | Trigger condition | Confirmation signal | Invalidation signal | |---|---|---|---| | Base case | Price remains between 202.88 and 220.46 | Strategy score stays near 52/100 and RSI avoids extremes | Close below support or a rapid score deterioration | | Upside case | Price clears 220.46 | Improving MACD histogram and volume above 20D average | Failed breakout back below resistance | | Downside case | Price breaks 202.88 | RSI weakens and MACD remains negative | Quick recovery back above support |

8. Risk matrix | Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action | |---|---|---|---| | Technical failure | Support at 202.88 anchors the current setup | Close below support | Reassess trend and reduce confidence in base case | | Momentum exhaustion | Neutral momentum; MACD state: Bearish MACD configuration | RSI extension or MACD rollover | Watch next 1-3 closes and histogram direction | | Volatility expansion | ATR14 / price is +2.31% | Wide ranges without follow-through | Require confirmation before trusting a directional move | | News/data gap | 5 current news items available | New headline or missing catalyst context | Refresh news before relying on stale views |

9. Seven-day watch checklist - First watch: whether price respects 202.88 or starts accepting below it. - Breakout watch: whether price can clear 220.46 with volume confirmation above the 20-session average. - Momentum watch: whether RSI14 stays constructive without moving into an exhaustion zone. - Risk watch: whether fresh news changes the catalyst picture.

Strategy cross-check | Strategy | Score | Signal | Basis | |---|---|---|---| | MA交叉 | 90/100 | StrongBuy | MA5>MA20金叉，多头排列 | | MACD背离 | 20/100 | Sell | MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱 | | RSI极值 | 50/100 | Hold | RSI14=48中性 | | 布林带 | 50/100 | Hold | 在通道中部 |

Information-use note StockKit provides market research tools for informational and educational use. The output does not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

Strategy factors

MA交叉Strong momentum

MA5>MA20金叉，多头排列

MACD背离Weak

MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱

RSI极值Neutral

RSI14=48中性

布林带Neutral

在通道中部

量价关系Neutral

缩量回调，可能企稳

News & catalyst inputs

Relatório usado por Moraes contra Mendonça não segue padrão de inteligência

Metropoles.com · 2026-09-05

Relatório usado por Moraes para acusar Mendonça não segue parâmetros de inteligência, diz associação

Terra.com.br · 2026-09-05

Delegados da PF pedem que Gonet se declare impedido para apurar relatório de Mendonça que cita o PGR

Noticiabrasil.net.br · 2026-09-05

Delegados da PF pedem que PGR se declare impedido no caso Master

Ig.com.br · 2026-09-05

Delegados pedem que Gonet se declare impedido em investigação sobre diálogos de Daniel Vorcaro

Terra.com.br · 2026-09-05

Research boundary

StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.

Disclaimer.This brief is generated by StockKit AI from public market data and algorithmic models for informational research only. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and it does not provide buy, sell, or hold ratings, price targets, stop-loss levels, or position sizing. “Watch levels” and “scenarios” describe observable conditions in the supplied data, not instructions. Verify all information with primary sources before any investment decision.