PGR
PGR · US
PGR Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 204.87 |
| Daily move | +0.22% |
| Strategy score | 59/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 | 49.08 (neutral) |
| MACD (line / signal / hist) | -0.12 / -0.51 / +0.39 |
| Support (est.) | 193.88 |
| Resistance (est.) | 204.68 |
| 30-session range position | +78.52% (191.75 / 208.46) |
| Data confidence | Medium overall |
| Indicator | Reading | Read |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 201.59 / 199.58 / 199.28 / 201.92 | Price +2.80% above MA20; MA5>MA10>MA20 stacked, but MA60 (201.92) sits above MA20, so the longer structure is still mixed |
| RSI (14 / 6) | 49.08 / 48.06 | Neutral momentum, mid-range, no extreme |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.12 / -0.51 / +0.39 | Line above signal (bullish cross) with positive histogram, but both below the zero axis, so momentum is improving from a weak base |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 51.40 / 57.66 / 38.87 | Soft / still repairing; K below D and a low J point to incomplete recovery |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 204.68 / 199.28 / 193.88 | Price near the upper band (102% of band) signals an extended near-term position |
| ATR14 (abs / %) | 4.05 / +2.03% | Moderate volatility; roughly a 2% average daily range to size around |
| OBV (level / 20-session slope) | -12,641,768.98 / -70.02% | Distribution pressure visible; OBV slope is sharply negative despite firm price |
| CCI20 | -22.66 | Inside a neutral band, no trend-extreme signal |
Confirmed: bullish MACD configuration (line over signal, positive histogram), a short-term MA5>MA20 cross, and confirmed price-up/volume-up participation (+101.01% vs 20-session average).
Conflicted: price strength and the near-upper-band position sit against a sharply negative OBV slope (-70.02%) and a still-repairing KDJ, so accumulation is not confirming the move. MACD is bullish in shape but below the zero axis, and MA60 above MA20 keeps the longer alignment mixed.
Missing: no custom indicators were supplied beyond the panel above, so no additional readings are folded in.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.65 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PB | 3.76 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| Price / sales | 1.37 | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | Medium |
| PEG proxy | 0.59 | StockKit scenario model (internally computed, not consensus) | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear $385.51 / Base $530.15 / Bull $666.1 | StockKit DCF scenario model (internally computed, not consensus) | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +158.8% | StockKit DCF scenario model (internally computed, not consensus) | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear +10.00% / Base +18.00% / Bull +24.00% | StockKit scenario model (internally computed, not consensus) | Medium |
| Revenue | $87.67B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Net income | $11.31B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
| Market cap | $120.48B | SEC shares outstanding + live quote | Medium |
| Balance sheet context | Assets $122.21B / Equity $32.04B | SEC EDGAR companyfacts | High |
Reported fundamentals are the higher-confidence anchor here: revenue of $87.67B and net income of $11.31B (period ending 2025-12-31), against equity of $32.04B and assets of $122.21B. The PE of 10.65 and P/S of 1.37 are derived from these reported figures.
The StockKit DCF scenario rows (fair value, base gap, 5Y growth, PEG proxy) are internally computed forecasts, not analyst consensus targets. The Base fair-value gap of +158.8% is wide relative to a 10.65 PE, which means the scenario model is leaning heavily on its growth assumptions (Base +18% over 5 years); treat these rows as model output to stress-test, not as a price target. EV/EBITDA was N/A in the supplied data and is omitted.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Headline coverage | No current news items were available from the configured source |
| Catalyst calendar | No dated catalysts supplied |
No confirmed news is available for PGR from the configured source, so this section carries low confidence and no headline-driven views are drawn. The absence of supplied news means the technical and valuation reads stand without a near-term catalyst overlay. No earnings dates, ratings, or events are inferred beyond what the dataset provides.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Social channels are marked not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or forum readings are produced. Sentiment confidence is Low; position with the technical and valuation evidence rather than crowd signals.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What would confirm it | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the MA20 (199.28) to resistance (204.68) zone with the bullish MACD intact | RSI14 stabilizing near/above 49.08, histogram staying positive, score holding near 59/100 | Loss of MA20 (199.28) or MACD histogram rolling back negative |
| Upside | Sustained close above 204.68 / upper Bollinger band on continued participation | Volume staying elevated (current +101.01% vs 20-session average), OBV slope turning up from -70.02%, push toward the 30-session high (208.46) | Rejection at 204.68 back below MA5 (201.59), or volume fading without follow-through |
| Downside | Failure at the 204.68 resistance with a break of MA20 (199.28) | MACD cross reversing, KDJ staying soft (J=38.87), slide toward support (193.88) / lower band | Reclaim of MA20 and a rebuild of the MA5>MA10>MA20 stack |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volume not backed by accumulation | OBV slope -70.02% despite firm price | OBV slope steepens further while price stalls at 204.68 | Watch OBV direction alongside each test of resistance |
| Extended near-term position | Price at 102% of Bollinger band, +78.52% of 30-session range | Rejection from the upper band toward middle band (199.28) | Track band position and the 204.68 / 199.28 pair |
| Momentum still weak under the surface | MACD line/signal below zero axis; KDJ J=38.87 still repairing | Histogram turns negative or KDJ fails to firm | Monitor MACD histogram and KDJ K vs D each session |
| Valuation model leans on growth | Base fair-value gap +158.8% from DCF scenario, not consensus | Reported growth undershoots the +18% Base assumption | Treat scenario rows as model output; recheck against next reported fundamentals |
| Catalyst and sentiment blind spot | No news and no sentiment series supplied (Low confidence) | A material headline lands outside the dataset | Re-run once a news/sentiment source is connected |
1. The 204.68 resistance / upper Bollinger band: clean hold above versus rejection (price is -0.09% from it). 2. MA20 at 199.28 as the line that separates the Base from the Downside path (price +2.80% above it now). 3. MACD histogram (+0.39): does it stay positive and does the line climb toward the zero axis. 4. OBV slope (-70.02%): any turn up would ease the distribution-pressure concern. 5. Volume versus the 20-session average (2,716,843): whether the +101.01% participation persists. 6. KDJ repair: J at 38.87 and K (51.40) versus D (57.66) firming or fading. 7. Strategy score and signal: whether 59/100 Hold shifts as the MA5>MA20 cross and volume reads evolve.
This brief uses only the supplied StockKit dataset. Reported fundamentals are sourced from SEC EDGAR companyfacts (CIK 0000080661, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/, latest period 2025-12-31); fair-value, PEG, and growth rows are StockKit scenario-model outputs, not analyst consensus. News and sentiment sources returned no data, so those sections are Low confidence. This is general research for public distribution, not personalized investment advice, and contains no return promises. Levels are watch levels for monitoring, not instructions.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=49中性
在通道中部
价涨量增(2.0x)，走势确认，连续放量上涨
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.